The Revenue Commissioners inform me that receipts for tobacco products tax for the first six months of 2016 amount to €608.2 million. This is 17.5% ahead of profile.
The date for the commencement of standardised packaging in Ireland has not been announced. The Department of Health have said that the commencement of the required legislation is a priority. Therefore the current trend of moving products out of tax warehouses does not necessarily relate to the introduction of standardised packaging. However, separately, new Europe-wide standards for tobacco products packaging were introduced in May 2016 under the Tobacco Products Directive, and all packs must meet these new standards by May 2017. The tobacco industry may be moving current stock out of tobacco products warehouses in order to clear packets with packaging that do not meet the Tobacco Products Directive standards in advance of May 2017. This trend may continue into 2017, although from May 2017 no packet that does not meet the new standards can be sold in Ireland.
While it is difficult to estimate the impact at this stage, it is not expected that the current trend will have a major impact on the fiscal space for 2017.