I propose to take Questions Nos. 237 and 238 together.
The figures requested by the Deputy are in set out in the table. General Government revenue is used as the income measure:
Table 1
|
Year
|
General Government Revenue
€bn
|
General Government Debt
€bn
|
General Government Interest
€bn
|
GG Interest as a % of GG Revenue
|
|
2000
|
38.7
|
39.1
|
2.1
|
5.4%
|
|
2001
|
40.8
|
40.5
|
1.8
|
4.3%
|
|
2002
|
44.5
|
41.5
|
1.8
|
4.0%
|
|
2003
|
48.6
|
43.6
|
1.8
|
3.6%
|
|
2004
|
53.9
|
44.1
|
1.7
|
3.2%
|
|
2005
|
59.5
|
44.4
|
1.7
|
2.9%
|
|
2006
|
67.8
|
43.7
|
1.8
|
2.7%
|
|
2007
|
71.3
|
47.1
|
2.0
|
2.8%
|
|
2008
|
65.4
|
79.6
|
2.4
|
3.7%
|
|
2009
|
56.5
|
104.7
|
3.4
|
6.0%
|
|
2010
|
55.4
|
144.2
|
4.7
|
8.6%
|
|
2011
|
57.7
|
189.7
|
5.7
|
9.9%
|
|
2012
|
59.5
|
210.0
|
7.2
|
12.1%
|
|
2013
|
61.5
|
215.3
|
7.6
|
12.4%
|
|
2014
|
65.8
|
203.3
|
7.4
|
11.3%
|
|
2015
|
70.6
|
201.3
|
6.7
|
9.5%
|
|
2016
|
72.4
|
203.6
|
6.3
|
8.6%
|
|
2017
|
74.9
|
207.8
|
6.2
|
8.3%
|
|
2018
|
78.1
|
209.0
|
6.1
|
7.8%
|
|
2019
|
81.1
|
212.7
|
6.0
|
7.4%
|
|
2020
|
84.0
|
214.6
|
6.0
|
7.1%
|
|
2021
|
86.9
|
217.1
|
5.8
|
6.7%
|
Source: Central Statistics Office, National Treasury Management Agency (National Debt and interest data provider) and the Summer Economic Statement 2016
For the purpose of international comparison figures provided for interest expenditure as a percentage of general government revenue are in the most recent European Economic Forecast - Spring 2016 published by the European Commission. These forecasts going out to 2017 concentrate on the EU but also include the outlook for some of the world's other major economies. This data is detailed in Table 2
Table 2 GG Interest as a % of GG Revenue
|
|
2015
|
2016
|
2017
|
|
Ireland*
|
9.5%
|
8.6%
|
8.3%
|
|
Belgium
|
5.7%
|
5.3%
|
5.1%
|
|
Germany
|
3.6%
|
3.1%
|
2.9%
|
|
Estonia
|
0.3%
|
0.2%
|
0.3%
|
|
Greece
|
7.9%
|
8.2%
|
7.9%
|
|
Spain
|
8.1%
|
7.6%
|
7.0%
|
|
France
|
3.8%
|
3.6%
|
3.6%
|
|
Italy
|
8.8%
|
8.5%
|
8.1%
|
|
Cyprus
|
7.2%
|
6.8%
|
6.3%
|
|
Latvia
|
3.6%
|
3.1%
|
2.7%
|
|
Lithuania
|
4.3%
|
4.4%
|
4.1%
|
|
Luxembourg
|
0.9%
|
0.9%
|
0.7%
|
|
Malta
|
6.2%
|
6.1%
|
5.8%
|
|
Netherlands
|
2.8%
|
2.8%
|
2.6%
|
|
Austria
|
4.7%
|
4.6%
|
4.7%
|
|
Portugal
|
10.5%
|
10.2%
|
9.9%
|
|
Slovenia
|
6.7%
|
6.5%
|
6.0%
|
|
Slovakia
|
4.2%
|
3.9%
|
3.9%
|
|
Finland
|
2.2%
|
2.0%
|
2.0%
|
|
United Kingdom
|
5.9%
|
5.6%
|
5.6%
|
|
USA**
|
10.4%
|
10.7%
|
11.3%
|
|
Euro Area
|
5.2%
|
5.0%
|
4.8%
|
|
EU
|
5.1%
|
4.9%
|
4.7%
|
*Figures for Ireland are Department of Finance estimates ; ** USA on SNA2008 basis
It can be seen in table 2 that 2015 interest expenditure as a percentage of general government revenue ranged from 0.2% in Estonia to 10.4% in the United States. Portugal was the highest in the Euro area at 10.5%. Ireland's figure of 9.5%, though above the Euro average of 5.2% is within this range, albeit towards the upper end.
Moving forward to 2017 forecasts, the Euro area average for this period is expected to be 4.7%, a decrease of 0.5% compared to 2015, Ireland's forecast for 2017 is 8.3% which represents a drop of 1.2% over the same period. The 2017 forecast for Portugal is 9.9%, the highest in the euro area.
There is no recognised forecast data for international comparison beyond 2017. However, as the Deputy can see from table 1 above, Ireland's interest as a percentage of general government revenue in 2021 is forecast at 6.7% down from 12.4% in 2013. It should also be noted that these forecasts do not take account of potential future sales of banking assets.
Budget 2017 to be published next month will include updated projections of debt, revenue and interest, taking account of developments up to that time, including both the United Kingdom's vote to leave the European Union and the recent revisions to GDP published by the CSO in the National Income and Expenditure accounts for 2015.
