Robert Troy
Question:14. Deputy Robert Troy asked the Minister for Finance if he will provide the VAT return figures on a monthly basis since the start of 2016; and his views on whether end of year targets will be met. [33987/16]
View answerThursday, 10 November 2016
Questions (14)
Written answers
The latest forecast for 2016 VAT receipts are contained in Budget 2017 published last month. This projects that for this year VAT revenues will be €12.6 billion, which represents a 5.7 per cent or €690 million increase on the preceding year. This revised forecast is 1.8 per cent or €230 million below the original Budget 2016 projection. As an ad valorem tax, VAT returns have been affected by, amongst other factors, the current low inflation environment prevailing across the economy. This is reflected in the forecast personal consumption deflator for 2016. In Budget 2017, it was projected that it would increase by 1.1% in 2016 as against an expected 1.8% increase in Budget 2016 when it was announced in October 2015.
Turning to the overall VAT performance year to-date, the October Exchequer returns published last week show that cumulative receipts are up 4.7 per cent or about €475 million annually. This is 2.6 per cent or €290 million below the original Budget 2016 profile.
As I am sure the Deputy is aware, the bulk of VAT is paid up to two months in arrears, with the bulk of VAT payments arriving every second month in what are generally referred to as the "VAT-due" months. So, in September, the last "VAT-due" month, the receipts relate to the July August trading period.
Looking at the performance in the "VAT-due" months, €2.1 billion was received in January, €1.5 billion in March, €1.9 billion in May, €1.8 billion in July and €1.9 billion in September.
During the alternate 'off-peak 'months where receipts are lower, €300 million was received in February, €270 million in April, €190 million in June, €290 million in August and €320 million in October.
The Revenue Commissioners have indicated the revised 2016 VAT forecast of €12.6 billion contained in Budget 2017 is reasonable and is consistent with their view of the likely outturn for this year.