The UK's decision to leave the European Union will result in a loss of its contribution to the EU budget of between 5% and 10%, or about €10 billion. This is likely to have implications for future spending decisions in what is already a very tight budgetary framework.
The CAP accounts for approximately 37% of the EU budget, and we can expect additional pressure from some member states for further contraction in CAP funding in the years ahead. However, it is too early at this point to speculate on the likely effects on the CAP post-2020.
There will also be a parallel debate on the post-2020 Multiannual Financial Framework, in respect of which a Commission proposal is expected later this year or early in 2018. There will be a need to strongly defend the CAP in these negotiations, and to emphasise its contribution to European strategic objectives in the face of likely demands not just for budget reductions, but for expenditure to be directed towards new priorities such as migration and security.
Both I and my Department will continue to promote the importance and relevance of CAP expenditure and will strongly defend the need for a budget commensurate with our strong ambitions for the CAP in post-2020 negotiations.