Dáil Éireann Debate, Tuesday - 21 March 2017
203. Deputy Michael McGrath asked the Minister for Finance if he will provide, using the most up-to-date economic and fiscal information available, an estimate of the fiscal space for 2018, 2019 and 2020; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [13342/17]
View answerEstimates of the gross and net fiscal space for the period 2018 to 2020 can be found in Table A7 Annex 2 of the Budget 2017 book. For convenience, the gross and net fiscal space for the period 2018 to 2020 are set out in the table.
|
€ billions |
2018 |
2019 |
|
Gross Fiscal Space |
1.8 |
3.2 |
|
Net Fiscal Space |
1.2 |
2.7 |
The calculation of the fiscal space depends on a number of moving parts. These include figures for general government expenditure, general government gross fixed capital formation, GDP deflators, reference rates and convergence margins.
The first official estimates of general government expenditure and gross fixed capital formation for 2016 are currently being compiled by the Central Statistics Office (CSO), in cooperation with my Department. These will be transmitted to EUROSTAT in the Excessive Deficit Procedure (EDP) notification tables (also known as the Maastricht Returns) at the end of March. Following a clarification process by EUROSTAT these data will be made public around mid-April. These data may be subject to revision when the CSO compiles the annual national accounts in June, and an updated EDP transmission takes place at end-September.
As Ireland is not yet at its medium term budgetary objective of a structural deficit of 0.5 per cent of GDP, the fiscal space is calculated in line with the potential growth rate of GDP less a convergence margin. The European Commission will set out the GDP deflator and the reference rate of potential growth in its Spring forecast due to be published in May. The Commission's Spring forecast will also contain the information necessary to calculate the convergence margin.
Following the publication of these data, my Department will compile revised projections of fiscal space out to 2021 and publish these in the Summer Economic Statement in June of this year.
