Dáil Éireann Debate, Tuesday - 4 July 2017
653. Deputy Barry Cowen asked the Minister for Housing, Planning, Community and Local Government the number of new dwellings which will be required each year over the coming 15 years based on headship rates and demographic projections and taking account of obsolescence, in view of under-supply of new housing compared to demand for the past number of years. [31084/17]
View answerThe Rebuilding Ireland Action Plan for Housing and Homelessness, which is available at the following link http://rebuildingireland.ie/install/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/Rebuilding-Ireland_Action-Plan.pdf, is a multi-stranded, action-oriented approach to achieving the Government’s housing objectives, as set down in the Programme for a Partnership Government. At its heart, it aims to increase housing supply, across all tenures, to 25,000 homes per year by 2021. The 25,000 target was the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) estimate of the housing requirement based on demographic change, household formation and a level of obsolescence of existing stock.
With regard to housing supply requirements over the coming 15 years and beyond, the new National Planning Framework (NPF), to be titled Ireland 2040: Our Plan, will address emerging trends such as a potential population increase of one million, more than a fifth of whom will be over 65 by 2040.
As was broadly indicated in the NPF Issues and Choices consultation paper published in February 2017, over 500,000 new homes will be required to support an additional projected population of one million people by 2040. The ESRI has undertaken demographic and econometric modelling work to inform the drafting of the NPF. This work effectively provides a baseline ‘business as usual’ scenario as well as examining alternatives. Projected national housing supply requirements for the draft NPF have been determined based on headship rates, demographic projections and a rate of obsolescence.
Published data from Census 2016 has also become available since April 2017 and coupled with the work of ESRI, is informing the drafting process. As further planned data publications become available from Census 2016, they will be factored into policy considerations, as appropriate.
An initial draft of the NPF is nearing completion for consideration and approval by Government with a view to publication as a draft for public consultation over the Summer period, running into September. The NPF remains on schedule for completion by the end of this year.
