Dáil Éireann Debate, Tuesday - 26 September 2017
94. Deputy Róisín Shortall asked the Minister for Finance if he will provide the figures for potential GDP growth in percentage terms for each of the years from 2002 to 2021; and if he will provide the actual and Government-assumed levels for 2015 in tabular form; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [40746/17]
View answerMy Department’s estimates of potential output for the years 2002 to 2021 are set out in Table 1. These estimates were prepared in the context of SPU 2017 published in April. They are prepared using the EU’s harmonised methodology.
Table 1
|
Year |
Potential GDP Growth Rate (%)* |
|
2002 |
6.7 |
|
2003 |
5.6 |
|
2004 |
5.1 |
|
2005 |
4.6 |
|
2006 |
4.0 |
|
2007 |
2.9 |
|
2008 |
0.7 |
|
2009 |
-0.8 |
|
2010 |
-0.5 |
|
2011 |
0.1 |
|
2012 |
0.9 |
|
2013 |
1.9 |
|
2014 |
3.6 |
|
2015 |
4.3 |
|
2016 |
5.1 |
|
2017 |
4.2 |
|
2018 |
4.3 |
|
2019 |
3.5 |
|
2020 |
3.0 |
|
2021 |
2.8 |
The CSO’s National Income and Expenditure Annual Results (NIE) 2015 indicated a real GDP growth rate of 26.3%. Incorporation of the NIE 2015 figures into the harmonised methodology resulted in estimates of potential output growth of 24.8% in 2015.
On the basis that this unprecedented increase in potential GDP growth would not correspond to an increase in the revenue-generating capacity of the economy, the 2015 figure was adjusted for the purposes of calculating Ireland’s reference rate under the SGP expenditure benchmark pillar. The adjustment entailed replacing the 2015 potential growth rate with the average of the growth rates in 2014 and 2016. In terms of the estimated level of potential GDP, no adjustment was made to the 2015 figure of €226m. This approach was also followed by the Commission and favoured by IFAC.
My Department will publish updated macroeconomic forecasts in October this year, as part of the Budget 2018.
