Contingency planning at both a domestic and an EU level is focused on three areas: preparing for a no-deal scenario or so-called “disorderly Brexit”; preparing for a transition period based on the “status quo”; and preparing for the future EU-UK relationship.
While the outcome of the December European Council and the move on to Phase 2 has lessened the likelihood of a disorderly Brexit, very detailed work on a no-deal or worst-case-scenario is advancing intensively through the cross-Departmental coordination structures, chaired by the Department for Foreign Affairs and Trade. This work is also informed by ongoing stakeholder engagement. Separately, a new preparedness unit in the European Commission is considering EU-level responses.
All this work provides a baseline scenario for the policies and sectors impacted, which can then be adapted as appropriate in light of developments in the EU-UK negotiations. In this regard, it is welcome that the direction of travel is now firmly towards achieving a “status quo” transition period. Agreement on a “status quo” transition will provide certainty to individuals and businesses while also aiming to avoid any cliff edge effects between the UK leaving the EU and a future relationship agreement coming into force. The period will provide time for businesses and citizens to prepare for the UK’s withdrawal from the EU based on the outcome of the negotiations on the framework for the EU’s future relationship with the UK. In this respect, the expectation is that the European Council will adopt additional Guidelines at its meeting on 22-23 March 2018 on the framework for the future EU-UK relationship. These guidelines – as well as further clarity on the UK position, which has been sought by the European Council – will provide a clearer picture of the direction of travel in the negotiations.
The Government’s contingency planning continues to be firmly grounded in the extensive work and outreach that has already been undertaken by individual Departments and agencies, as well as by stakeholder organisations, academics and others. Much of this is in the public domain.
Brexit is a key strategic risk for my Department and in addition to the work on contingency planning as outlined above, there are ongoing consultations and meetings between my officials, other Government Departments and agencies, and other public and private key stakeholders in order to continue to plan for and mitigate the risks associated with Brexit.
As part of my Department's preparations for Brexit, I hosted an All-Island Transport and Logistics Sectorial Dialogue in Dundalk on 23 January 2017 as well as an All-Island Dialogue on tourism the same day. The Dialogues were attended in total by over 200 transport and civic representatives from North and South. Details of these events are published on the Department’s website (at www.dttas.ie/publications). My Department also held a stakeholder workshop in April of last year on the possible impacts of Brexit on maritime transport regulation and on the sectors on which this impacts.
The Department is represented at meetings of a sub-group of the National Civil Aviation Development Forum, at which Brexit is a standing agenda item. The sub-group includes representatives from the airlines, airports, regulators and my Department and meets approximately every two months. My Department also chairs a Tourism Brexit Working Group, which includes representatives of the main tourism agencies.
My officials will continue to work with the road haulage, tourism, aviation and maritime sectors and stakeholders in order to further identify and plan for the implications of Brexit, including through a number of stakeholder meetings expected to take place during Q1 of 2018.
The Irish Maritime Development Office (IMDO) is undertaking a study for the Department into the use of the UK Land bridge by Irish importers and exporters. The purpose of this research is to establish the volume of traffic using the UK Land bridge at present, the likely consequences that Brexit will have on Land bridge usage and the various alternative options that may be viable. I expect this piece of research to be completed in Q1 of 2018. This research is being carried out through existing research and analytical resources within the IMDO.
In informing its position, the Department also avails of published analyses by other Government Departments and agencies, details of which are published on the Brexit page of www.merrionstreet.ie.
