I propose to take Questions Nos. 104, 111 and 113 to 115, inclusive, together.
Table 8 found on page 17 of the Economic & Fiscal outlook of Budget 2019 sets out the fiscal forecast for 2018-2023. It is presented in the same format as the Exchequer Statement included in the monthly Fiscal Monitor published by my Department. This facilitates a comparison of the end-year outturns against the Budget 2019 forecast.
Table 10 found on page 20 of the Economic & Fiscal outlook of Budget 2019 presents the fiscal forecast in the same format as the Analytical Exchequer Statement which is also included in the monthly Fiscal Monitor. As some of the Exchequer receipts and expenditure items do not have an impact in general government terms, under ESA 2010 statistical rules, these items are delineated in Table 10.
The line items which make up non-voted expenditure, both current and capital, are listed in Table 10 and are reproduced for the Deputy’s convenience in the following table.
-
|
2018
|
2019
|
2020
|
2021
|
2022
|
2023
|
non-voted current expenditure
|
8,925
|
8,430
|
8,475
|
8,025
|
8,405
|
8,815
|
- national debt interest
|
5,815
|
5,320
|
5,090
|
4,430
|
4,685
|
4,945
|
- debt management expenses
|
185
|
200
|
170
|
165
|
160
|
160
|
- EU budget contribution
|
2,575
|
2,575
|
2,875
|
3,050
|
3,200
|
3,350
|
- Oireachtas
|
135
|
150
|
140
|
140
|
140
|
140
|
- other
|
215
|
185
|
200
|
245
|
225
|
220
|
expenditure transactions with no general government impact
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
non-voted current expenditure
|
10
|
5
|
5
|
5
|
5
|
5
|
- Other
|
10
|
5
|
5
|
5
|
5
|
5
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
non-voted capital expenditure
|
1,050
|
1,130
|
1,145
|
1,125
|
1,155
|
1,190
|
- FEOGA
|
800
|
800
|
800
|
800
|
800
|
800
|
- Loans
|
240
|
310
|
335
|
315
|
345
|
385
|
- Other
|
10
|
20
|
15
|
10
|
5
|
5
|
The elements of non-voted current expenditure indicated in table 10 as impacting in general government terms, show the mains items as debt servicing costs, Ireland’s contribution to the European Union budget and the Oireachtas. Included in ‘other’ are such items as judicial salaries, allowances and pensions payable to the political system. In terms of non-voted current expenditure which does not impact on the general government balance, the main items are pension payments under section 48 of the Pensions Act 1990.
Non-voted capital for the years 2018 to 2023 is not expected to include items that will impact on the general government balance. The main items under this heading are short term cash flow loans to the FEOGA fund and other technical Exchequer loans. The line entitled “other” is mainly made up of investments in international bodies provided for under such legislation as the Development Banks Act 2005.
The Exchequer Borrowing Requirement (EBR) for 2019-2023 is represented in table 8 of the Economic & Fiscal Outlook of Budget 2019 as the Exchequer Balance and is reproduced for the Deputy’s convenience in the following table:
|
2019
|
2020
|
2021
|
2022
|
2023
|
Exchequer Balance/Borrowing Requirement
|
-2,250
|
-670
|
810
|
-275
|
705
|
The line items which make up non-tax revenue are also listed in Table 10 and reproduced for the Deputy’s convenience in the following table.
|
2018
|
2019
|
2020
|
2021
|
2022
|
2023
|
general government impacting non-tax revenue
|
1,405
|
1,315
|
845
|
635
|
600
|
520
|
- Central bank surplus income
|
670
|
565
|
315
|
135
|
80
|
-40
|
- Dividends
|
280
|
285
|
290
|
255
|
275
|
310
|
- other
|
455
|
460
|
240
|
245
|
245
|
245
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
non-general government impacting non-tax revenue
|
1,430
|
1,240
|
590
|
645
|
665
|
700
|
- Central bank surplus income
|
1,430
|
1240
|
590
|
645
|
665
|
700
|
As laid out in Table 10 the only non-tax revenue elements that impact upon general government are surplus income from the Central Bank arising from its normal operation, dividends paid to the State and ‘other’. Included in this ‘other’ category is interest on loans, royalties, departmental non-tax receipts and miscellaneous receipts. The only element of non-tax revenue which does not impact upon the general government balance is Central Bank surplus income related to the disposal of floating rate notes.
Capital receipts are laid out in Table 8 and reproduced for the Deputy’s convenience in the following table.
|
2018
|
2019
|
2020
|
2021
|
2022
|
2023
|
capital receipts
|
20
|
20
|
20
|
20
|
20
|
20
|
Capital receipts are not received to the Exchequer, rather they are received directly into Departments or into extra budgetary funds as Appropriations in Aid.
The line items that make up capital resources are listed in table 10 and reproduced for the Deputy’s convenience in the following table.
|
2018
|
2019
|
2020
|
2021
|
2022
|
2023
|
general government impacting capital resources
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
capital resources
|
145
|
75
|
65
|
70
|
70
|
75
|
non-general government impacting capital resources
|
1,710
|
1,055
|
2,850
|
3,070
|
1,070
|
1,070
|
- Nama
|
0
|
0
|
1,500
|
2,000
|
0
|
0
|
- FEOGA
|
740
|
800
|
800
|
800
|
800
|
800
|
- Loan repayments
|
970
|
245
|
550
|
270
|
270
|
270
|
- Other
|
0
|
10
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
The element of capital resources shown in table 10 as impacting in general government terms is mainly made up of forecast receipts from the European Union Regional Development Fund. In terms of capital resources that do not impact upon the general government balance, the main items include projected receipts of €3.5 billion arising from the projected wind-down of the National Asset Management Agency, repayment of an annual cash flow loan to the FEOGA fund and repayment of other technical Exchequer loans. These are generally given for cash flow purposes to ensure that sufficient resources are available when expenditure items fall due for payment.