Tuesday, 26 March 2019

Questions (177)

Billy Kelleher

Question:

177. Deputy Billy Kelleher asked the Minister for Finance the details of jobs multiplier models used for employment forecasts; the latest forecast for each year in the 2020 to 2025 period; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [12756/19]

View answer

Written answers (Question to Finance)

The Department of Finance’s most recent economic forecasts which cover the period 2018-2023 were published in Budget 2019. The table below details the employment growth projections from these forecasts. Overall, employment growth is forecast to be approximately 2.0 per cent on average per annum over the period from 2019 to 2023. Employment is forecast to grow by 2.8 per cent in 2019 and 2.2 per cent in 2020. Over the medium term 2020-2023, employment growth of 1.8 per cent on average per annum is projected.

 

 

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

Employment growth

2.8

2.2

1.5

1.6

1.7

The Department’s approach to forecasting employment growth entails the application of statistical models and expert judgement. For employment forecasts over the short-term, regard is given to recent employment trends and carryovers, implied quarterly profiles, industry surveys, and economic models where employment growth is linked to the underlying performance of the domestic economy as along with past employment growth. Economic models play an increasingly important role in informing projections over the medium term.

The Department’s next set of economic forecasts for the period 2019-2023 will be published as part of the Stability Programme Update in April 2019.