Tuesday, 3 December 2019

Questions (131, 132, 134, 135)

Pearse Doherty

Question:

131. Deputy Pearse Doherty asked the Minister for Finance the projected tax revenue in each of the years 2020 to 2025 in the event of an orderly Brexit by tax category, that is, income, VAT and so on as opposed to a disorderly Brexit as outlined in the economic and fiscal outlook in Budget 2020 in tabular form. [50097/19]

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Pearse Doherty

Question:

132. Deputy Pearse Doherty asked the Minister for Finance the projected expenditure in each of the years 2020 to 2025 in the event of an orderly Brexit by expenditure category, that is, compensation of employees, interest expenditure and so on as opposed to a disorderly Brexit as outlined in the economic and fiscal outlook in Budget 2020 in tabular form. [50098/19]

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Pearse Doherty

Question:

134. Deputy Pearse Doherty asked the Minister for Finance the resources available in the event of an orderly Brexit after projected and pre-committed expenditure in each of the years 2020 to 2025 in order to reach a GGB as a percentage of GDP by percentage (details supplied) in tabular form. [50103/19]

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Pearse Doherty

Question:

135. Deputy Pearse Doherty asked the Minister for Finance the resources available in the event of an orderly Brexit after projected and pre-committed expenditure in each of the years 2020 to 2025 in order to reach a structural balance of -0.5 in tabular form. [50104/19]

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Written answers (Question to Finance)

I propose to take Questions Nos. 131, 132, 134 and 135 together.

The Government decided in September that Budget 2020 would be based on the assumption of a disorderly Brexit at end-October. Given the information available at the time this was the safest and most appropriate option to take. Since I published Budget 2020, the risk of the UK departing the EU this year without a deal has been averted. However, the ultimate outcome is still highly uncertain and a disorderly Brexit in 2020 while less likely, is still possible.

Should the UK leave the EU on an orderly basis, Ireland’s fiscal position, inter alia, would likely improve with both increased revenues and lower expenditure than forecast at Budget 2020. This would have a positive effect on both the General Government Balance and the Structural Balance. The fiscal forecast published with the Summer Economic Statement (SES) in June is instructive as to the fiscal situation under an orderly scenario.

Once clarity is achieved in relation to Brexit and full year Exchequer returns are available, the Department of Finance will update the fiscal forecasts in preparation for the Stability Programme Update in the usual manner.