Dáil Éireann Debate, Tuesday - 12 July 2022
250. Deputy Darren O'Rourke asked the Minister for Transport if he will provide a breakdown of the €23 billion figure cited as a potential cost for the MetroLink in an extreme case scenario; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [37620/22]
View answer276. Deputy Darren O'Rourke asked the Minister for Transport if he will provide a breakdown of the €23 billion figure cited as a potential cost for the MetroLink in an extreme case scenario; if he will publish the source of this potential costing; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [37619/22]
View answerI propose to take Questions Nos. 250 and 276 together.
MetroLink is at a relatively early stage of development and final construction costs will not be known until after the planning and procurement processes. On 4 July, Government approved the project in principle at Decision Gate 1 of the Public Spending Code. This decision was informed by a range of potential costs. These costs were developed in line with international best practice and combine reference class forecasting and expert assessment. The estimated construction costs at P50, with medium inflation, and P95, with high inflation, are set out in the table below; the 'P' value indicates the probability that the project will be delivered at or below a certain cost.
|
P50 (with medium inflation) |
P95 (with high inflation) |
|
|
Base Cost (Q4 2021 Prices) |
€5.80bn |
€5.80bn |
|
Risk Uplift |
30% |
182% |
|
Risk Allowance |
€1.74bn |
€10.55bn |
|
Inflation Forecast |
€1.96bn |
€7.03bn |
|
Total Cost |
€9.50bn |
€23.39bn |
As shown in the table, the base cost for MetroLink remains the same in both scenarios but the risk allowance and inflation forecast is much higher for the P95 figure. To be clear, the P95 figure of €23.39 billion is not considered representative of the expected project cost. The independent review of the preliminary business case conducted by JASPERS notes that the risk uplift at P50 is already high compared to similar projects but prudent for a project at this early stage of development. The P50 risk allowance is 30% of the base cost whereas the risk allowance at the P95 level is 182% of the base cost.
I intend to publish the Preliminary Business Case and supporting documentation in the coming weeks, with commercially sensitive information appropriately redacted.
