Dáil Éireann Debate, Thursday - 29 September 2022
86. Deputy Richard O'Donoghue asked the Minister for Transport the status of the Oxford Economics Review of Future Capacity Needs at Ireland's State Airports (details supplied); and his views on whether the forecast figures are fair to regional tourism. [47831/22]
View answerThe National Aviation Policy 2015 identified as one of the actions, the need for the Department to commission a high-level, strategic capacity review of our State airports. This Review was undertaken to assess the long-term capacity needs at our State Airports to 2050, given the dependence of our national economy on Ireland’s airports, particularly Dublin. The Review of Future Capacity Needs at Ireland’s State Airports was undertaken by consultants Oxford Economics and Cambridge Economic Policy Associates (CEPA)) and published in 2018.
The Review looks at existing/planned airport capacity and identifies priorities and recommends timeframes for new or adjusted infrastructure development to pre-empt any capacity constraints at the airports in Cork and Shannon as well as Dublin.
In line with the terms of reference for the review, it took into account the policy objectives of supporting the roles of Cork and Shannon Airports as key tourism and business gateways for their regions, along with the development of Dublin as a secondary hub. The review also took into account wider government objectives and policies for enterprise, tourism and balanced regional development in Ireland and developments in the global aviation market. This is in line with the National Aviation Policy which recognises the roles that both Cork and Shannon play in the regions.
The report, which was published prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, looked at three scenarios for passenger growth at the three State Airports out to 2050. The base forecast for future passenger growth to 2050 anticipates average annual growth of passengers at Dublin Airport of 2% per annum with slightly lower rates of 1.9% and 1.8% at Shannon and Cork respectively. In a baseline scenario, passenger demand at Dublin is forecast to reach 54 million passengers by 2050. Passenger numbers at Cork are forecast to reach 4.1 million in 2050, while at Shannon they reach 3.3 million.
A downside scenario foresees Dublin’s passenger numbers reaching 49 million by 2050. The corresponding forecast for Cork is 3.7 million, while at Shannon it is 3.0 million. Under an upside scenario Dublin reaches 61 million passengers by 2050 (about double the existing level), while Cork reaches 4.6 million and Shannon 3.8 million.
The report then identified the main capacity constraints for each airport, and the years when such constraints were likely to take effect.
In recognition of the importance of our regional airports to supporting connectivity to the regions and enhancing balanced regional development, Government has sustained the substantial high level supports to regional airports since the onset of COVID-19 and throughout the recovery of the aviation sector experienced this year. This week, I was delighted to announce that a total package of €36m in funding for our regional airports, including for Shannon and Cork will be provided in 2023.
The Public Service Obligation air services between Donegal and Dublin will also continue to be funded. Following an extensive procurement process a new PSO air services contract came into effect this year, marking Government’s commitment to ensuring continued connectivity to this region for the next 3 years.
