Ivana Bacik
Question:17. Deputy Ivana Bacik asked the Taoiseach if he will report on the draft list of strategic risks 2023 in the national risk assessment. [6929/23]
View answerWednesday, 22 February 2023
Questions (17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22)
Mary Lou McDonald
Question:18. Deputy Mary Lou McDonald asked the Taoiseach if he will report on the draft list of strategic risks 2023 in the national risk assessment. [8117/23]
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Richard Boyd Barrett
Question:19. Deputy Richard Boyd Barrett asked the Taoiseach if he will report on the draft list of strategic risks 2023 in the national risk assessment. [8829/23]
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Paul Murphy
Question:20. Deputy Paul Murphy asked the Taoiseach if he will report on the draft list of strategic risks 2023 in the national risk assessment. [8832/23]
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Robert Troy
Question:21. Deputy Robert Troy asked the Taoiseach if he will report on the draft list of strategic risks 2023 in the national risk assessment. [8881/23]
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Cathal Crowe
Question:22. Deputy Cathal Crowe asked the Taoiseach if he will report on the draft list of strategic risks 2023 in the national risk assessment. [8882/23]
View answerOral answers (9 contributions)
I propose to take Questions Nos. 17 to 22, inclusive, together.
The national risk assessment has been prepared since 2014 and provides an opportunity to identify and discuss significant risks which may arise for Ireland. A draft list of strategic risks for consideration as part of the 2023 national risk assessment was published for consultation on 7 December 2022. This provides an opportunity, as has been done in previous years, for the public, stakeholders and Oireachtas Members to contribute their views on the proposed strategic risks for 2023. The public consultation closed on 17 February. Work is now under way on considering the consultation responses and finalising the 2023 national risk assessment.
The draft list outlined 25 proposed risks. Many of the proposed risks had been identified in previous assessments. Some of them have evolved significantly, such as the Russian invasion of Ukraine, inflation and, of course, new economic risks. The experience of recent years has brought home the importance of work in the area of risk management and preparedness. By promoting an open and inclusive discussion on the major risks facing the country the national risk assessment plays an important role in this work. It is important to note that the national risk assessment is just one element of the overall system of preparedness planning for Ireland and is not intended to displace the detailed risk management and preparedness carried out by individual Departments and agencies.
We know that the key risks facing the country now include the risks associated with the brutal Russian invasion of Ukraine. I know we will be having statements on this issue shortly. Of course there are also risks arising from the economic consequences and rising inflation rates. A key risk in Ireland that is of our own making is the risk caused to our economy, economic growth and jobs by the lack of availability of housing. This risk has been identified by IBEC and Grant Thornton, as we saw in the Business Post last week. It has also been identified by the many constituents and individuals who come to us every day with enormous difficulties accessing affordable homes for themselves. It is a risk being exacerbated by the Government's delay in announcing any extension of the temporary winter eviction ban. I thank the Taoiseach for confirming to me earlier that he will make a decision before St. Patrick's day. There are serious risks for all of the families facing the cliff edge of eviction notices at present. This is something that we need to stress. It is a risk not only to them but to us all as a society and economy.
I want to refer to the risks involved with climate change. We know immense risk is caused to all of us not only in Ireland but internationally due to the climate catastrophe. At a very local level even with the implementation of OPW flood defences, we know there is likely to be more flooding in Ireland. Many homes still cannot access cover. It is an issue for many people in my constituency. Will the Government introduce a scheme to provide for compulsory home insurance cover?
A further risk is an inability to hire staff in many areas of the public service. We know a number of unresolved pay claims need to be addressed. Last week we saw adult education tutors protesting outside Leinster House to get recognition for their jobs. They were also fighting for standard public service contracts. I have raised previously in the House the need for a pay rise for workers in the community and voluntary sector. The Labour Party tabled a motion on this some months ago. We need to see the risks involved in the shortages of staffing in our public sector addressed urgently by the Government.
The draft national risk assessment expects inflation to remain elevated and anticipates a very gradual easing of inflation rates over the course of 2023. It then uses the energy-linked inflation to warn against a wage-price spiral emerging as the economy approaches full employment. This is a limited argument that ignores the fact early warnings of a wage-price spiral have not materialised, with average earnings growth falling below the rate of inflation. This is even more pronounced when multinational sector wages are excluded.
We know from research funded by the Low Pay Commission and undertaken by researchers at UCD that of the 420,000 low-paid workers in Ireland, one in five is over 50. ESRI research tells us that home ownership for 25- to 35-year-olds has collapsed over the last 20 years under Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael Governments. The same research finds that future retirees are to have a substantially lower rate of home ownership than currently exists, with the consequence that as more people retire, homelessness will increase because, in the past, older people would have owned their own homes. This is a catastrophe that is coming down the road.
As we remain in a cost-of-living crisis and a deeply entrenched housing crisis, low and medium income workers are not and will not be the cause of a wage-price spiral. The data tell us where the problem lies. It lies squarely with bad policy and bad decision-making by successive Governments. Will this analysis be reflected in the national risk assessment?
This Friday at 1 p.m., the Save Our Forests Save Our Lands alliance will hold a protest outside the headquarters of Coillte in Newtownmountkennedy precisely to address what more than 30 different environmental and rural organisations that have joined the alliance believe is the risk posed to biodiversity, to farmers, to local communities, to water quality, to sustainable forestry and to addressing our climate objectives by the policies of Coillte. Coillte has most recently attempted to pursue a forestry model that is about involving vulture funds, which are purely interested in making profit from forestry and continuing the failed bankrupt model of monoculture Sitka spruce, which is damaging for the environment, damaging for local communities and worse than useless for biodiversity, water quality, soil quality - you name it. There needs to be a fundamental reform of Coillte and what it is doing because, at the moment, it is pursuing a damaging forest model on every level.
The Gresham House deal should still, even now, be unravelled but, more importantly, we need a fundamental reform of the mandate of Coillte so it is not about competing with farmers and not about operating forest simply for profit, but is actually about being the guardian of the forest estate in the interests of the common good and in the interests of pursuing biodiversity and supporting farmers and local communities. I hope the Taoiseach will support that protest and its demands for a fundamental and urgent reform of the Coillte mandate.
The advent of Brexit has had a very negative effect on Ireland overall but it is certainly felt more in some of the regions. In County Clare, we very much look to Europe yet our backs are to the Atlantic Ocean. Since the advent of Brexit, we find ourselves very much cut off from continental Europe. We no longer have air connectivity into continental Europe, our only hub connectivity being to London Heathrow. An request was made by the Shannon Airport Group last autumn vis-à-vis a public service obligation, PSO, application to Government. It is seeking Government supports to subvent that all-important air connectivity from Shannon into continental Europe, and it is specifically targeting a route into Amsterdam Schiphol. I have travelled there twice in the past year to try to cultivate that and push it a bit further. However, the reality is that this cannot immediately wash its face commercially and it needs some Government intervention to ensure Shannon is connected to Schiphol or, if Schiphol is not the answer, perhaps Frankfurt Hahn or Charles de Gaulle. Whichever it is, we need something.
I ask the Taoiseach to look at this because it has been before the Government for several months. There is provision under EU Regulation No. 1008/2008, which provides for states to provide financial support for regions that are remote and require air routes for better connectivity. I ask the Taoiseach to move on that. It is on the desk of the Department of Public Expenditure, National Development Plan Delivery and Reform but the Cabinet needs to make a decision. At the moment, it is pending a decision, which blocks those who might want to take on commercial routes from taking them on.
I am revisiting a question from yesterday. We all welcome the citizens’ assembly on drugs use. The war on drugs is dead and buried and we know we need health-led initiatives. I want to ask specifically about drug debt intimidation. It is a particular issue and we need to ensure it is front and centre in regard to the citizens’ assembly. We then need action afterwards, not just reports.
On that final point on drug debt intimidation, I agree it is something the citizens’ assembly needs to examine as part of its work.
On the issue raised in regard to air PSOs by Deputy Cathal Crowe, we have had a few air PSOs in the past, for example, there was Dublin-Kerry, which we no longer need because it is a commercial service; Dublin-Donegal, which is still there; and Dublin-Derry, which is gone. In the past, to my knowledge, they have always been internal flights. I know they do not have to be internal flights and they can sometimes be international flights, but they have to be public service obligations. My understanding of European law is that we cannot fund them for purposes of tourism or business. It is not that type of connectivity that is considered a public service under European law but, rather, it is people being able to connect to medical appointments and things like that, so it is a higher bar. However, I am not an expert on it at all. I will certainly mention to the Minister, Deputy Ryan, that the Deputy has raised it.
I would very much like to see Shannon connected to a European hub. There are very important transatlantic links into Shannon and a crucial link from Shannon into London Heathrow. I would very much like to assist the airport to secure a European hub like Paris, Frankfurt, Copenhagen or Schiphol, but perhaps there are other mechanisms than PSO to achieve that. One thing we always have to bear in mind is displacement. Displacing a flight from Cork to Shannon or from Knock to Shannon, or vice versa, does not achieve very much, unfortunately. Displacing a flight from Dublin to one of those airports would be a positive thing but no subsidies are provided to Dublin Airport, in fact, quite the reverse. Dublin Airport pays significant dividend profit taxes to the State which we can then use to help other airports and other regions.
On forestry, we now have about 11.5% forestry in Ireland in terms of our land mass, so we are going in the right direction, which is encouraging. The aim is to get to 18%, which is a big ask but something we want to do. We want that mainly to be done by farmers. Farmers own most of the land in Ireland and we want them to be the people who do most of the new forestry. That is why we have the new forestry programme, with attractive grants, incentives, single farm payments and tax concessions for farmers who plant some or all of their land. We really want them to lead on this and to be the main group that delivers for us when it comes to forestry.
We have forestry for lots of different reasons – yes, for climate and as a carbon sink, yes, for biodiversity, and yes, for leisure and tourism, but also for timber. Timber is important. We have a housing crisis and embedded carbon matters. We want more homes built with timber rather than concrete, and that is where conifers come in, so we need to have them as part of our plantation mix. That needs to be borne in mind. We can deal with the climate crisis and the housing crisis at the same time, but it is very hard to do if we do not use timber in houses, and that means conifers.
What of the mandate of Coillte?
The mandate of Coillte should be all of those things: to produce timber for housing and building, for leisure and tourism and for climate and biodiversity. It should be a multiple mandate, not a single mandate, and that is the mandate, in my view.
I very much agree with what Deputy Gould said about us not seeing a wage-price spiral. That is not happening in Ireland. Inflation here is being caused by other factors, including monetary policy, that is, quantitative easing and a prolonged period of low interest rates, a pandemic that created a mismatch in supply and demand and also of course the war in Ukraine. However, just because we are not seeing a wage-price spiral, it does not mean we want to see one either.
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