Dáil Éireann Debate, Thursday - 30 November 2023
52. Deputy Brian Leddin asked the Minister for Transport the specific actions that are being undertaken to achieve the climate action plan target of reducing vehicle kilometres on Irish roads by 20% by 2030; to outline the key milestones in achieving this target; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [52861/23]
View answer65. Deputy Brian Leddin asked the Minister for Transport to outline the projected increase or reduction in the number of private vehicles on Irish roads between 2024 and 2030; the policies to support the growth or reduction in the number of private vehicles and kilometres driven; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [52860/23]
View answerI propose to take Questions Nos. 52 and 65 together.
In Climate Action Plan 2023 (CAP23), my Department presented a recalibrated decarbonisation pathway for the sector that was informed using the National Transport Authority’s Regional Modelling System, a Carbon Footprinting Tool developed from a detailed inventory of energy use in transport, and a detailed profile of the Irish car fleet. Together, these three tools provide robust estimates of the travel responses to potential interventions and policy measures and forecast the combined impact of vehicle fleet electrification, renewable transport fuel usage and behavioural change measures on transport emissions.
The future fleet size estimates that were used in this work were informed by historical trends in the rates of vehicle purchasing, second-hand imports and vehicle scrappage, and data on the average kilometres driven by vehicle class as recorded from the National Car Test.
The table below sets out the projected number of private cars for the period 2024-2030, as was assumed under CAP23.
Table 1: Projected size of Private Car fleet for 2024-2030 as per CAP23 fleet model
|
Year |
Projected Size of Private Car Fleet |
|
2024 |
2,246,096 |
|
2025 |
2,267,954 |
|
2026 |
2,289,902 |
|
2027 |
2,309,957 |
|
2028 |
2,327,935 |
|
2029 |
2,344,512 |
|
2030 |
2,361,251 |
It is important to note that the fleet model is kept under review and my Department is planning a recalibration of the fleet model with its agencies in 2024 to update the model to include end-2023 fleet data, and to review the vehicle purchasing, import and scrappage assumptions inherent to the model.
However, it is clear that to achieve the ambitious levels of transport emissions reduction committed to under CAP23, the base demand for transport must be addressed. For this reason, CAP23 specifically committed to the development of a new National Demand Management Strategy (DMS). The aim of the Strategy is to provide a detailed and evidence-based roadmap of potential measures that implementing bodies can take to reduce vehicle kilometres travelled. The process to develop the Strategy is well underway and is being led by an inter-departmental, inter-agency Steering Group.
In collaboration with a wide range of stakeholders, the Group is giving specific attention to key areas such as optimal use of space, fiscal measures, freight, and integrated land use and planning. It is intended that recommendations will take a system-wide approach to reducing travel demand, with every sector of the economy required to contribute to the effort. With a particular focus on just transition, the Strategy will take account of existing and planned improvements to sustainable mobility alternatives, and will guide, support and enable relevant authorities to implement measures at national, regional, and local level to achieve a more efficient transport system – one that delivers the widest range of well-being benefits to the citizen.
Further to consideration and approval by Government, it is expected that the draft Strategy will be published for a period of public and stakeholder consultation in early 2024.
In addition to the development of the National Demand Management Strategy, my Department continues an ambitious programme of work - under the Sustainable Mobility Policy - to promote modal shift away from private cars towards more sustainable forms of transport, such as public transport and active travel (walking and cycling). This includes, for example, a significant capital investment programme (on projects such as Metrolink, Dart+, BusConnects, and the Cork Commuter Area Rail Programme), ongoing expansion and improvement of public transport services (including the Connecting Ireland Rural Connectivity Programme) and investment of approximately EUR360m per annum on high-quality walking and cycling infrastructure, all supported by a range of public engagement and communications initiatives.
