I propose to take Questions Nos. 268, 269 and 281 to 283, inclusive, together.
The School Transport Scheme is a significant operation managed by Bus Éireann on behalf of the Department of Education. In the current school year over 161,600 children, including over 135,000 pupils travelling on primary and post primary services, 19,800 pupils with special educational needs, and 6,800 pupils who have arrived to Ireland from Ukraine are transported on a daily basis to primary and post-primary schools throughout the country.
The total cost of the scheme in 2023 was €382.02m.
With regard to the specific issues raised by the Deputy, firstly with regard to the capital cost of meeting the additionality it is worth bearing in mind that circa 94% of the total school transport fleet is operated by private contractors under contract to Bus Éireann. Funding for future implementation of recommendations arising from the review will be sought in the context of the annual budgetary process. Analysis undertaken as part of the review of the scheme was completed using current costs.
It is estimated that an additional 100,000 children, above the current pupil numbers on transport, could be accommodated on the mainstream scheme by 2030, at which point due to demographics numbers will decline somewhat thereafter but with an expected increase of 80,000 pupils on current school year numbers by 2040.
The overall spend in 2024 for the school transport scheme is estimated at €444m. This cost includes the cost of implementing certain recommendations arising from the review. To achieve our ambition to expand and improve the scheme, i.e. that it carries 100,000 additional students, will require increasing costs over time to €672m in 2030.
If we do not implement the recommendations of the scheme, financial and economic modelling shows that the costs of the scheme will rise to €678 in 2030 in any case.
This is because the comprehensive set of recommendations if implemented will leverage four major factors:
• Creating opportunities for SEN children to travel on mainstream transport with the appropriate supports, should they so wish.
• Creating greater access to local provision for children with SEN so that they have to travel less distance to access appropriate educational provision for their needs.
• Decreasing demographics which will see spare capacity increase over time on the buses.
• Greater integration with public transport where appropriate.
The estimated cost to operate the scheme out to 2030 is set out in the attached table. It must be noted that there are certain assumptions and projections used in compiling these costs.
Building on data from the Department and Bus Éireann including profiles of the current geographic distribution of School Transport Scheme users and projections for future trends in student numbers, as well as analysis of the likely impacts of different pricing policies, the projections in the attached table have been prepared.
In the Phase 3 report Indecon developed projections for the Review of the School Transport Scheme. All options project the total usage of mainstream service to peak in the short terms before slowly declining over the appraisal period. Please see attached table with regard to the projected demands for mainstream services.
The total costs to place a mainstream pupil on transport is €1,100 per pupil with an annual increase of approx. 2.5% - 5% . Funding for future implementation of scheme amendments will be sought in the context of the annual budgetary process. All costs factored into the review costs are current costs.
Further detail in relation to the review can be found in the detailed reports which were published in February of this year. These reports are available at: gov.ie/schooltransport
School Transport
