asked the Minister for Finance if a growth rate of 1 per cent in real GNP can be expected in the present financial year.
Ceisteanna—Questions. Oral Answers. - GNP Growth Rate.
22.
I referred in my financial statement of 26th June, 1975, to the marked fall in output in the first half of the year as a result of the world recession and said that there was a very real possibility that the volume of national output this year would, in fact, be lower than in 1974. All the indicators which have since come to hand confirm this view.
A fall in output is being experienced in many other countries this year. For EEC members as a whole the fall according to latest information is likely to be about 3 per cent.
Can the Minister give any assurance that we will not experience an actual fall in the growth rate as we did during the period of office of the previous Coalition?
The Deputy will appreciate that, when the world gross national output is falling, it is unlikely that Ireland would be unaffected by this fall. Some figures might interest the Deputy. The most recent forecasts indicate that the United States will have a fall of 4 per cent; Italy, 3 to 3½ per cent; Britain, 1 per cent; Germany, 3 to 4 per cent; and France, 2½ per cent. These forecasts, which are the most recent ones, compare with forecasts given earlier this year. The EEC forecasts this year for projected growth in GNP were as follows: for May, 1974, they forecast plus 3.1 per cent for this year. In August last year it dropped to 2.8 per cent and in December last year to 2.1 per cent. In March of this year it was 1½ per cent. By June it had fallen to minus ½ per cent and by July it had fallen to minus 3 per cent.
The last Coalition had us going backwards instead of forwards. I hope that does not happen again.
(Dublin Central): The Minister mentioned a drop of 3 per cent. The question was: would there be an increase of 1 per cent?
I said that, for the EEC as a whole, a fall of the order of 3 per cent is expected. For the OECD as a whole, a drop of the order of 2½ per cent is expected in 1975.
(Dublin Central): In reply to Deputy Lemass, who asked would there be a growth rate of 1 per cent, the Minister stated there would be a drop of 3 per cent. In effect, what will the growth rate be after the drop?
I have given the House the fullest information about the projections for growth rate in Ireland and elsewhere.
Everywhere else except Ireland.
The Minister has ruined the economy.
This is becoming an argument. A final supplementary.
(Dublin Central): Surely the Minister knows perfectly well that the countries he spoke about, America and the EEC countries——
Has the Deputy a question?
(Dublin Central): I have.
He asked about three without getting a reply.
(Dublin Central): The Minister did not state exactly what the growth rate will be in this country at the end of 1975, which is the question Deputy Lemass asked. He said there will be a reduction of 3 per cent.
A question, please.
(Dublin Central): Could the Minister give some indication of what the percentage increase in growth rate will be? Will it be minus?
Deputy Fitzpatrick said I gave a certain answer. I do not see why he is looking for another.
Question No. 23.