asked the Taoiseach if he will provide an estimate of the total work-force currently without jobs, including those who are not entitled to unemployment benefit and assistance.
Ceisteanna—Questions. Oral Answers. - Unemployment.
11.
The up-to-date and regular statistical information available in the context of unemployment is that provided by the weekly live register totals. These cover all claimants for unemployment benefit, applicants for unemployment assistance—excluding smallholders—and applicants for credited social welfare contributions except those related to trade disputes. The most recent live register total, relating to 30th September, 1977, was 104,859.
An annual mid-April estimate of the number of persons "out of work" is prepared within the framework of the annual estimates of the total labour force. This is obtained by using the live register trends—excluding persons on systematic short-time working—to up-date census of population totals for persons "out of work". The classification of a person as "out of work" in a census is based mainly on the respondent's own assessment of his or her economic circumstances and does not depend on the receipt of unemployment benefit or unemployment assistance.
The most recent estimate for the number "out of work" on this basis is 108,000 for mid-April, 1977. This does not include persons seeking work for the first time for which the most recent official estimate available is that of 20,000 given by the 1975 Labour Force Survey for May, 1975. A corresponding estimate will be available in due course from the 1977 Labour Force Survey for which the field work was recently completed.
Can we take it that the correct figure is 104,000, plus about 20,000 people who are not registered, thus bringing the figure to about 130,000? I should like to know why it was claimed by a Minister, Deputy O'Donoghue, before the election that the correct figure was 160,000 and that the Irish Congress of Trade Unions gave a figure as high as 200,000? Can the Parliamentary Secretary explain the reason for the discrepancy between these figures, given bona fide, I am sure?
The Deputy is incorrect in taking from my reply that the estimated figure at present is 104,000, plus 20,000 because the figure of 20,000, mentioned in the reply, was complied under a Labour Force Survey in 1975. As I pointed out, a similar survey was carried out this year. The field work in this was completed recently but the figures are not yet available. I estimate that the figures arising out of that survey will be far in excess of the 1975 figure of 20,000.
Do I take it that the figure has dropped by 50,000 since the Government took office? The estimate before they took over was 160,000.
That is not what I said.
Would the Parliamentary Secretary indicate the prognosis, origin and justification of the figure of 160,000 which has been referred to?
It was not in the question but in the supplementary.
Would he like to explain where it came from?
I am not in a position to explain it.
I did not think the Parliamentary Secretary was.
Could the Parliamentary Secretary tell me if it is the intention of the Government to produce more accurate figures or to change the present system?
I said in my reply that there was a recent survey and that the data collected will be available, I think, at the beginning of next year.
Will it be included in the figures then produced?
It has nothing to do with the format of the live register.
Would the Parliamentary Secretary assure the House that his "guessometer" will be more accurate in the future than it was before the election?
(Interruptions.)