andMr. Kelly asked the Minister for Energy the anticipated increase between 1980 and 1990 in—(i) the consumption of all forms of energy and (ii) the consumption of imported oil; the extent to which this rate will exceed the European average; and if he has satisfied himself that arrangements made within the European Community for the sharing of oil supplies will be sufficient to continue the present rate and pattern of economic growth in Ireland based on a high rate of increased energy consumption.—
Ceisteanna—Questions. Oral Answers. - Energy Consumption.
30.
It has been estimated that
(i) the consumption of all forms of energy in this country will increase from 8.9 million tonnes of oil equivalent (mtoe) in 1980 to 15.0 mtoe in 1990, an average annual increase of 5.4 per cent and that
(2) the consumption of oil will increase from 6.5 mtoe in 1980 to 9.5 mtoe in 1990, an average annual increase of 3.9 per cent.
These estimates are in the course of review in the light of recent and current developments in the oil market and in world economic trends generally. While I do not wish to be definitive at this time, it seems likely that they will need to be adjusted downwards.
Forecasts for total energy consumption in the European Economic Community beyond 1985 have not been agreed at Community level. It is estimated, however, that
(1) the consumption of all forms of energy in the Community will increase from 1,032 mtoe, in 1980 to 1,191 mtoe in 1985 representing an annual average increase of 3 per cent and that
(2) in accordance with the commitment entered into by member states, oil imports into the Community as a whole during the years 1980 to 1985 will not exceed the 1978 imports figure of 472 mtoe. It will, of course, be recognised that indigenous oil production in the EEC, mainly in the British North Sea sector, will have substantially increased by 1985 and this will displace imports which would have otherwise been necessary.
The arrangements made within the Community for the sharing of oil supplies are intended to come into operation only in the event of a shortage of supplies. It is not possible to say at this stage if the arrangements will be sufficient to continue the present rate and pattern of economic growth in Ireland as this would depend on the extent of the shortage. However, in supplying estimates for EEC consideration of possible measures to reduce oil consumption, we have strongly emphasised the special growth requirements of the Irish economy and the resulting implications for our future energy needs.
Would the Minister not agree that it is a cause for considerable concern that the projected rate of growth in Irish energy consumption on average is almost twice that of other European economies? Is he satisfied that the programmes he has in mind are sufficient to enable us to maintain that pattern of growth in a world of increasing energy scarcity? Is he further satisfied that, in the event of our not doing so, we may face serious employment problems and problems of social distruption?
I am not satisfied that we have at the moment any accurate estimates or forecasts of likely consumption in the coming decade. The interdepartmental committee, which was set up in connection with the consideration of the nuclear energy reactor has, as one of its functions, the preparation and refinement of estimates of energy consumption over the next decade. In due course that will become available. At present the only estimates we have available officially are those which appeared in the document "Energy Ireland" issued in 1978. It is quite clear on the face of it that they are not accurate.
I am very interested to hear the Minister acknowledge that. In his main reply, I think he said it had been estimated that the consumption of all forms of energy would go up in the years starting now by over 5 per cent a year. Did I hear that correctly?
5.4 per cent.
That is the 1978 estimate.
Surely in the light not only of the factors the Minister mentioned but also the very steep slowdown in economic activity here, that is a gross overestimate. Surely that projection is wildly out of line with what now appears to be likely, given that the increase in energy demand is geared not much more than one to one with the growth in the economy.
A question Deputy, please.
I thought I had indicated that I regarded those figures, which were published in 1978 although prepared I think a little before that, as being inaccurate, primarily for the reason indicated by Deputy Kelly. It is clear that the growth rates which will be achieved world-wide will not be such as would result in that kind of growth in energy consumption.
In view of the fact that the Minister has admitted, in reply to supplementary questions, that the estimates contained in the document in question were inaccurate——
Now inaccurate.
——why then did the Minister include them in his original reply?
Because they are the only figures available at present.
They are the only figures from the small number of people at the disposal of the State who take an interest in such matters, but they are very heavily outnumbered by a growing number of other people in the world even in this little country.
The Deputy is now imparting information.