asked the Minister for Finance the forecasted balance of trade and balance of payments deficits for 1982.
Ceisteanna—Questions. Oral Answers. - External Balance Position.
6.
Mr. Treacy
(Clare): I expect that the external balance position in 1982 will show an improvement on the outturn for 1981. This expectation is supported by the recovery in agricultural exports and the rapid growth in industrial exports in recent months, as well as by the favourable development now emerging in export prices relative to import prices. The Deputy will appreciate that it is not possible at this early stage to forecast the extent of the likely improvement by end-year because of the difficulty in quantifying the impact of the many factors which will influence the flow of trade and payments over the remainder of the year.
Is it not still the case, even with the modest improvement projected for this year as against last year, which was a truly disastrous year in terms of balance of payments deficit, that our balance of payments deficit will still be substantially higher than that of any other EEC country?
(Clare): I do not have information regarding other member countries of the EEC.
Will the Minister not agree that by quoting the marginal improvement projected for this year as against last year he runs the risk of giving a misleadingly reassuring impression about our balance of payments situation when it is still dramatically worse than that of practically any other country in Europe?
(Clare): If I am asked a question I must give the facts. I have given the facts in my answer. There is no reason why I should hide the facts. It would be more harmful to hide them.
Ministers are expected to have some background information about facts when they come to the House. Otherwise we could have all this information furnished by way of written reply without giving the Minister or the House the bother of listening.
(Clare): If the Deputy wants a comparison with other EEC countries he should put down a question. He will certainly get the information.
Will the Minister say how he can be so optimistic when 500 firms have called in the liquidator or the receiver since the beginning of this year, and according to information in yesterday's papers a further 600 firms have made application to Fóir Teoranta and the IDA for rescue help? Will the Minister state where the increase has been in agricultural exports?
(Clare): In my reply I spoke about the recovery in agricultural exports and the rapid growth in industrial exports. On the questions of firms going into liquidation, another Department will answer questions with regard to that matter.
How can the Minister reconcile his statement that there is expected to be an improvement in the balance of payments deficit this year when the OECD forecast shows no change whatever in the record level of external deficit of last year?
(Clare): This is the expectation here and it is supported by the recovery in agricultural exports and growth in industrial exports. They are the grounds for the expected improvement.
The OECD are an impartial body who get their information on matters of this kind from the Government Departments. How can the Minister reconcile his statement with the OECD report published two days ago which shows no reduction? It shows no reduction because, although there is some improvement in exports, the whole of that benefit is taken up by increased payments connected with the external debt.
(Clare): Perhaps the reason is that the OECD seek this kind of information quite a considerable time before they publish their forecast. Their information is not completely up-to-date. It is only in recent months that there has been an improvement in industrial and agricultural exports. It is possible that the OECD report may be somewhat out-of-date.