asked the Minister for Finance the main macroeconomic forecast contained in Building on Reality, 1985-1987; and in relation to each of these, the most recent forecast upon which current policy is based.
Written Answers. - Macroeconomic Projections.
143.
The macroeconomic projections for the period 1984 to 1987 were summarised in table 1-6 of Building on Reality.
The main macroeconomic projections in the plan for the years 1986 and 1987 were as follows:
|
GNP-GDP volume growth (%) |
Consumer Prices (% increase) |
Unemployment as % of Labour Force (mid-April) |
Balance of Payments Deficit (% of GNP) |
|
|
1986 |
2¾ |
6½ |
15½ |
3 |
|
1987 |
3 |
6 |
15¼ |
3 |
The latest projections for the coming two years indicate that:
—economic growth should be at least as strong as projected in the plan;
—inflation will be considerably lower than projected, averaging about 3 per cent this year and, provided the favourable trends continue, should be about 1 per cent in 1987;
—employment will increase significantly, bringing a stabilisation of the unemployment rate;
—the balance of payments position should be better than envisaged.
The Deputy will appreciate that external developments, such as oil prices different from those currently expected, could affect the projections.