asked the Minister for Social Welfare the estimated average number of unemployed which formed the basis of the current Estimates for his Department for this year; the total sum of money involved; in the light of the end-April figures increasing beyond 250,000 when they would normally fall, if he will now give his latest estimates for the average number unemployed; if a supplementary estimate will be necessary to cover any increase; if so, the likely extent of any overrun; and if he will make a statement on the matter.
Ceisteanna—Questions. Oral Answers. - Unemployment Statistics.
41.
The total estimated cost of unemployment payments by my Department in 1987 (including payments to smallholders) is £694.33 million. This provision is based on projections supplied to my Department of the average rate of unemployment during the year. The figure underlying the 1987 provision is 241,000.
The thrust of Government policy is towards reducing unemployment and a number of measures in the social welfare and other areas have been designed with this objective in view, such as for example the national Jobsearch programme being spearheaded by my Department. It is too early as yet to assess the impact of such policies and I do not propose, therefore, to speculate at this stage on what the likely outturn by my Department will be on unemployment payments this year.
May I ask the Minister if he is not concerned that the unemployment figures have again risen above 250,000 in the month of April, at a time when these figures should have been falling, and if he will not agree that this is likely to lead to a much higher average rate of unemployment for the rest of the year?
As the Deputy said, the average figure for the beginning of this year was higher than that of last year.
I did not say that.
The figure for January 1987 is 254,000 as against 240,000 for January 1986. Figures for other months were 252,000 as against 249,000 and 250,000 as against 250,000. The full impact of the measures of economic development in the budget will not be seen until later in the year. The impact of these will have to be seen before one will know the average for the year. The 241,000 is on average an increase of 5,000 above last year's figure of 236,000.
Does the Minister not accept that, taking seasonal factors into account, unemployment figures always fall in the month of April but this year they went up and that prima facie this would indicate at least a strong possibility that the average numbers of registered unemployed will be greater than those which were taken into account in the budget Estimates? Will he not also accept that the overall effect of the budget is deflationary and will cause not less but more unemployment as is evidenced in the impact of the health cuts?
The projected average figure on the live register for the year and that which underlies the budgetary provision for 1987 is 241,000. This figure is on average 5,000 per month above last year's figure. That has already been taken into account in the estimation of the figures for the current year. The impact of the Government's measures in relation to tourism, agricultural development and other areas will not be felt until somewhat later in the year and obviously that was taken into consideration in arriving at the Estimates.
The Minister is not being totally honest with the House and is certainly being evasive. The overall effect of the budget is deflationary and I think everybody will agree with that.
A question, please, Deputy.
Will the Minister not agree that the overall impact of the budget is deflationary? There will be some benefits, I hope great benefits, from the further improvements in the regime for tourism and agriculture, as the Minister said I hope they will have a great impact. As against that, the estimate by the Central Bank is that there will be a 0.5 per cent increase in economic growth this year and some people think that is optimistic. Even if that is the case, does the Minister not know that in order to maintain unemployment at a static level there would need to be about a 4 per cent increase in economic growth. Is he not therefore avoiding the question by not admitting that unemployment rates will be much greater than is provided for in the Estimates, even allowing for emigration?
The Estimates which are made in the context of the budget are those I have quoted and take into consideration the factors the Deputy mentioned.
I am anxious to dispose of the three remaining questions in the five minutes we have left. These questions are in the names of Deputy Bell and Deputy Mitchell and I ask for the co-operation of the Deputies and the Minister in disposing of them.