asked the Minister for Social Welfare if he will give details of the projected live register figures for 1988, on the basis of which the Estimate for his Department is calculated; if he will outline the basis for this projection, and in particular, the number of persons now in public service employment who are expected to be on the live register next year; and if he will make a statement on the matter.
Written Answers. - Projected Live Register Figures.
38.
The projected net live register figure underlying the 1988 Estimate for my Department is 256,000. The live register is difficult to estimate, given the difficulty of forecasting the various components which go to make it up.
The 1988 figure is based on forecasts made by the Department of Finance in relation to the level of employment and the size of the labour force and involves assumptions about key economic variables such as the level of emigration and participation rates. The employment assessment also takes into account the improvement in the economy generally as well as the impact of the Government's fiscal and sectoral economic policies. The Estimate takes into account the expected beneficial contribution of Jobsearch and similar measures in 1988. The projection of 256,000 so calculated represents a slowing down in the rate of increase experienced in recent years.
The impact of the voluntary early retirement-redundancy schemes for the public sector has been taken into account in the live register projection for 1988.