Dáil Éireann debate -
Thursday, 9 Apr 1992

Vol. 418 No. 6

Written Answers. - Strategy on Unemployment.

Eric J. Byrne

Question:

77 Mr. Byrne asked the Minister for Finance if, in regard to his recent newspaper interview (details supplied) in which he admitted that unemployment in this country could reach 300,000; he will outline the implications for his budgetary strategy if such a figure were reached in terms of tax foregone and additional social welfare costs; if he intends to take any new initiatives to help create additional jobs in either the public or the private sector in order to avoid this figure being reached; and if he will make a statement on the matter.

Minister for Finance (Mr. B. Ahern)

As I indicated last week when commenting on the end-March revenue and expenditure returns, although unemployment has been growing more rapidly than anticipated at the time of the budget, I do not expect that the total number on the live register will increase to 300,000 during 1992. However, given the large numbers likely to join the labour force over the period ahead, unemployment could reach such levels during 1993 unless employment grows quickly or net emigration resumes.

As the Deputy will be aware, I expect employment to increase this year compared with 1991. In so far as higher unemployment reflects an increase in the labour force rather than a reduction in employment no loss of actual revenue arises. The additional full-year cost of social welfare payments for each extra 1,000 persons on the live register is a little above £3 million. While such costs would not make achievement of the Government's budgetary strategy any easier, that strategy will remain in place notwithstanding the course of unemployment.

As regards new initiatives to help create additional jobs in either the public or the private sector, I would repeat my reply to a Question by Deputy Spring on 24 March last:

The broad thrust of the Government's strategy for expanding economic activity and employment is as set out successively in the Programme for National Recovery, the Programme for Government and theProgramme for Economic and Social Progress. That strategy is working. It has restored employment growth and is set, as international activity picks up, to underpin further expansion of sustainable jobs. The Government acknowledge, however, that even more rapid economic progress, and employment growth, is required having regard to prevailing high levels of unemployment and prospective increases in demand for jobs. In this context it has taken a variety of initiatives, including the Industrial Policy Review Group, the Task Force on Employment and the Tourism Task Force.

On the Government's initiative, to further assist in strengthening the employment growth of the economy, an all-party Oireachtas Committee on employment has now been proposed.