The Construction Industry Council, which is the principal representative body for the construction industry, has not expressed any concern that there may be excessive construction demand in 1998. The Construction Industry Council's membership is made up of the Association of Consulting Engineers of Ireland (ACEI), the Building Materials Federation (BMF-IBEC), the Construction Industry Federation (CIF), the Institution of Engineers of Ireland (IEI), the Royal Institute of the Architects of Ireland (RIAI) and the Society of Chartered Surveyors (SCS). In fact, one Construction Industry Council member — the CIF — has expressed reservations on the Government's intention to limit increases in public capital programme spending on construction to an average of 5 per cent per annum, in the period up to 1999. Neither have I received any representations on this subject from the Irish Congress of Trade Unions (ICTU).
The output of the construction industry has grown by 48 per cent over the three-year period 1994-96; and is forecast to grow by at least 8 per cent in 1997. At present, forecasts of growth for 1998 range from 3 per cent to 8.5 per cent. While this cumulative growth in construction output is remarkable in Irish and European terms, it follows a period of recession during the 1980s and early 1990s. The output of the industry only recovered to the peak level of 1981 in 1996; and will exceed it, for the first time, in 1997.
In the absence of growth in construction investment, economic and social development and job creation would be constrained. For example, the resulting drop in the supply of new houses would put further upward pressure on house prices. My Department has recently initiated a consultancy study of the factors giving rise to increased house prices; and how these factors are likely to operate in the future. While there are recent reports of significant increases in tender prices for general contracting, this follows a period when such prices were highly competitive relative to trends in building costs. Tender prices for civil engineering projects, e.g. roads and water services, remain competitive.