The report to which the Deputy refers is the FAPRI-Ireland ‘Outlook 2000' report, which was published in March 2000. FAPRI-Ireland subsequently published an ‘Outlook 2001' report in April 2001. Its ‘Outlook 2002' report will be published at the end of April this year. There are considerable differences in the projections shown in each year's outlook report, due to changes in the market situation and prospects. The latest published results, which are in the Outlook 2001' report, project a baseline of no policy change in which aggregate farm income would increase by 4% in nominal terms over the period 2000 to 2010.
Average farm income is calculated by dividing aggregate farm income by the number of farms. As current trends both in Ireland and internationally suggest that there will be a decline in farm numbers, mainly in small farms under 20 hectares, over the same period average farm income in nominal terms will increase at a much faster rate than aggregate income. This should be sufficient to at least match inflation. It should also be borne in mind that over 60% of farm household income now comes from off-farm activities. This part of farm income is not included in the FAPRI-Ireland analysis but is likely to continue to grow, as the number of part time farmers increases in the future. Neither is income earned on-farm from non-farm activities such as rural tourism included in the analysis.