Vol. 553 No. 2
157 Mr. Hogan asked the Tánaiste and Minister for Enterprise, Trade and Employment her views on the recent upturn in the level of unemployment; the reasons for this disappointing trend; and if she will make a statement on the matter. [13877/02]
The most recent publication of the Quarterly National Household Survey, (QNHS) for the first quarter of 2002, indicates that unemployment is currently running at 80,000 persons. This represents an increase of 7,400 in the quarter and 14,400 in the year. Those in short-term unemployment – less than 12 months – accounted for almost all of the annual increase where the numbers increased by over 13,000. In the first quarter of 2002, the unemployment rate was 4.4%. This compares with 4.0% in the fourth quarter of 2001, and 3.7% in the first quarter of 2001.
Any increasing trend in the level of unemployment is disappointing but must be viewed in the context of a number of factors. These include the continuing increases in employment, albeit at a less dramatic rate than experienced in the recent past. There were 1,745,500 persons in employment in the first quarter 2002, over 35,600 higher than the first quarter of 2001. On average, employment grew by 2.1% in the year to the first quarter of 2002, compared with an annual increase of 3.6% in the first quarter of 2001.
As one of the most open economies in Europe and the world, Ireland has been particularly exposed to the downturn in the world economy, most notably in the United States, over the past 18 months. This has manifested itself most notably in the high-tech sector. Despite this exposure Ireland has remained relatively unscathed and the most recent cross-country comparable figures show that our rate of unemployment for 2001, at 3.8%, was exactly half that of the European Union average.
While there is still uncertainty about the short-term, economists are forecasting that a recovery in the global economy will be under way by later this year. EU forecasts predict that unemployment will rise to 4.5% this year and will remain at similar levels in the medium term. The ESRI forecast an annual average unemployment rate of 4.6% on an ILO basis for 2002 with a forecast of 4.4% for 2003.
The fundamentals necessary for Ireland to take advantage of any prospective future recovery are in place. Enterprise Ireland and the IDA will continue to explore all avenues with regard to attracting foreign direct investment and stimulating indigenous job creation. FÁS, in tandem with the Department of Social, Community and Family Affairs, will continue with its systematic engagement with those crossing thresholds of duration in unemployment, – six months for under 25s, and nine months for 25 to 55 year olds – to establish their suitability for job vacancies, training or other supports. This systematic approach has been very successful in facilitating the speedy reintegration of persons into the labour market, and in preventing the flow from short-term to long-term unemployment.
