I propose to take Questions Nos. 92 and 390 together.
The report by Fitzpatrick Associates on behalf of the NDP-CSF evaluation unit of the Department of Finance reviews the implementation to date of the national roads programme provided for in the NDP. The report highlights the increased cost, €15.8 billion, of completing the programme based on NRA data and makes a number of recommendations in relation to the management of the programme, including in relation to cost estimation and control.
The increased cost of the programme is due to some underestimation in 1999 costs which were based on updating national road needs study data; construction cost inflation in the period 1999 to 2001 estimated at 15% per annum in 1999 and 2000 and 9.5% in 2001; exceptional items such as the upgrade of the N9, higher land costs on the south eastern motorway and additional costs on the Dublin Port tunnel; higher land acquisition costs, particularly in Dublin and adjacent to urban areas; the availability of more accurate and detailed estimates as projects progressed from preliminary to more detailed planning. As the updated estimated cost is based on individual project estimates, it is not possible to provide accurate estimates of the extent to which each of the factors outlined above contributed to the overall increased cost of the programme.
In relation to the difference between the estimated cost of projects at outline design stage and tender stage, the report noted that a range of increase from 5% to 95% was observed in the case of five projects which the consultants reviewed. The main factors identified were construction cost inflation and significant scope changes in some projects. The 95% figure referred to relates to one project and does not represent an average for the programme.