Pat Rabbitte
Question:1 Mr. Rabbitte asked the Taoiseach if he will make a statement on the preliminary census results published in July 2006. [28249/06]
Ceisteanna — Questions.
Census of Population.
Trevor Sargent
Question:2 Mr. Sargent asked the Taoiseach if he will report on the preliminary census results made available in July 2006; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [30673/06]
I propose to take Questions Nos. 1 and 2 together.
The preliminary report of the 2006 census, carried out on Sunday, 23 April 2006, was published on 19 July 2006. The report was compiled using headcount information compiled by each of the 4,400 enumerators based on the completed census forms for their respective enumeration areas. The following were the highlights of the preliminary census results.
The population of the State increased by 318,000 persons between 2002 and 2006 to reach the highest recorded census level since 1861. The preliminary total for the population enumerated on census night 23 April 2006 was 4,234,925 persons, compared with 3,917,203 in April 2002, representing an increase of 8.1% in four years or 2% per annum. On average there were 46,000 more immigrants than emigrants annually over the 2002-06 period, compared with an annual excess of births over deaths of 33,000.
Looked at from a ten-year perspective, Ireland's population increased at an annual average rate of 1.6% between 1996 and 2006, the largest population growth rate in the EU. The populations of Fingal and Meath both increased by over one fifth between 2002 and 2006. The counties of Kildare, Fingal and Meath accounted for 30% of the national increase in population. Other Leinster counties which showed large increases were Laois, 14%, Wexford, 12.9%, Offaly,10.9%, Westmeath, 10.5%, and Wicklow, 10.2%. Apart from Fingal, there was a relatively modest increase of just 20,000 in the rest of Dublin and, as a result, the overall population grew by just 5.65%, considerably less than the 8.1% increase for the State as a whole. The population of Leitrim grew by almost 12% between 2002 and 2006. This followed a modest increase of 3% between 1996 and 2002, which was remarkable in that it occurred after continuous declines in population over the previous century and a half.
At electoral division, ED, level, Blanchardstown-Blakestown in Fingal recorded the highest increase in intercensal population — up 7,901 to 32,305 in April 2006. Other EDs with population increases in excess of 5,000 during 2002-06 were Navan rural in Meath, up 5,176, in Meath and Balbriggan rural in Fingal, up 5,150.
I thank the Minister of State for his reply. Has he received advice from the CSO on the extent to which the figures might represent an understatement of the reality? I refer here to the anecdotal evidence of which we are all aware regarding enumerators encountering great difficulty in effecting entry to certain housing developments and catching people when they were at home. I was informed by one enumerator with whom I am familiar that she called back on 18 occasions to a particular development. Has the director of the CSO provided an estimate of what might be the possible shortfall?
The simple answer is no. I did not receive any communication from the CSO regarding any possible underestimation of the figures. As the Deputy is aware, the definitive counts will be delivered and announced next year. I may have stated previously on Question Time that there were 4,400 enumerators who were employed to deliver and collect census forms. Each was responsible for an enumeration area, EA, consisting of approximately 350 households. I accept that new problems were encountered on this occasion in the context of gated communities, apartment complexes etc., which made matters more difficult than in the past. The enumerators made contact with householders in the lead-up to census day, 23 April, marked the location of each house or apartment in their EAs and left blank forms and explanatory leaflets, with instructions to complete, to each householder. The process was definitive in nature.
I have not been contacted regarding any underestimations. As the Deputy is aware, this work is detailed and confidential in nature. We look forward to the publication of the definitive figures.
Will the Minister of State seek information on the matter to which I refer? I am not imputing any lack of professionalism or anything else on the part of the CSO, far from it, but I have received direct anecdotal evidence of difficulties being encountered, which did not exist previously, in terms of securing the co-operation of everyone in particular households, gaining access to some communities, contacting people who work irregular hours and enumerators being obliged to make repeated attempts to encourage people to engage with the process.
When is the final report likely to be published? Must we await its publication before we receive a breakdown of different categories such as, for example, the number of non-nationals living here etc.? Is it now settled Government policy that, irrespective of how early the CSO makes its final report, the business of establishing a new boundaries commission to revise the constituencies is not likely to happen between now and the general election?
The Deputy's final question is one for the Minister for the Environment, Heritage and Local Government.
I was just testing the Ceann Comhairle and I am glad to see that, even in the absence of the Taoiseach, he is alert.
With the permission of the Ceann Comhairle, I can make a brief comment on that matter. On the Deputy's first question, however, I will ask the CSO to communicate directly with him on the anecdotal evidence in his possession regarding issues of access etc. and difficulties that may have arisen.
With regard to the future work of the CSO, I understand that during next year it will issue approximately 16 publications in all.
As the Deputy is probably aware, currently the CSO is carrying out important work relating to disability. Two questions pertaining to disability were introduced for the 2002 census and were refined for the 2006 census. The response to question No. 15 on the census form provided a framework for the CSO to carry out a nationwide survey on disability and the field work for the national disability survey is being carried out in September and October 2006. The sample covers approximately 17,000 individuals and provides one example of the new kind of work being done. The Deputy also referred to nationalities etc. and religion. All other reports pertaining to specific aspects of the CSO's work will be published up to the end of 2007.
With the Ceann Comhairle's permission I wish to reply to the Deputy's question regarding the Minister for the Environment, Heritage and Local Government and the CSO. As the Deputy is aware, the Attorney General has advised that constituencies may only be revised on the basis of the final census figures, which are expected early next year. Constitutionally, the preliminary figures cannot be used to revise constituencies. The Electoral Act 1997 provides for the establishment of a constituency commission upon the publication of the census report that contains the final figures. The Act also sets out the considerations to which a commission must have regard in observing the relevant provisions of the Constitution. The Minister intends to establish such a commission to review and report on Dáil and European constituencies as soon as the relevant census report is published. Under the Act, the commission will be required to report to the Ceann Comhairle as soon as may be, and in any event, within six months of its establishment. The report will then be laid before each House of the Oireachtas.
As the Taoiseach has stated, it is not normal practice to publish legal advice and the Minister has no plans to so do. This is the position. It is planned to publish the principal demographic results within one year of the census and to release all publications arising from the 2006 census before the end of 2007. The published tables will be provided simultaneously on the CSO website. As the Deputy is aware, the CSO has an excellent website, www.cso.ie, which keeps everyone updated.
I will not go into detail on the revision of the constituencies following the Minister of State's reply, except to ask whether he agrees that the legality of the situation still leaves a glaring under-representation for my constituency?
That is a question for the Minister for the Environment, Heritage and Local Government.
I ask the Minister of State whether he agrees with this point because it is fairly obvious.
In his reply, the Minister of State cited Fingal, which I represent, as having in effect added the population of Carlow to its population figure since 2002. On that basis, given that they highlight that Swords is the same size as Waterford city, to what use will the figures be put? If one considers a place like Waterford, even its most basic facilities, such as primary schools, post offices and libraries, are a great deal more plentiful than is the case for somewhere like Swords, which has a fast-growing and largely youthful population. To what use will the unofficial figures be put? They are largely indicative of major failures to provide facilities within the context of a significant level of house building. Rush, which is the same size as Kilkenny city, does not yet have a full-time Garda station.
The Deputy should confine himself to the questions asked.
This is the question.
Garda stations have nothing to do with the reply.
Will the Minister of State indicate the use to which these figures will be put, as they outline glaring inequalities in terms of the range of facilities available nationwide?
On the first question, the figure for Dublin North is 29,996 and Dublin West is in excess of 30,000. This is extremely relevant to the earlier discussion. As for the use to which these figures will be put, having worked as the Minister of State with responsibility for the CSO, I am conscious — as are others — of the tremendous value these figures offer to legislators, the Government, local authorities and State bodies with regard to future planning. The Deputy has touched on some of the vital areas, such as schools and Garda stations. Another essential area relates to the kind of planning announced by the Taoiseach and the Minister for Transport, Deputy Cullen, regarding the Transport 21 initiative. Its entire approach is to connect communities and the CSO has clearly shown a huge increase in population in the outlying areas of Dublin. At the same time, a slower rate of development can be seen within the city itself. Clear needs will be provided for by these figures.
Future Governments will be obliged to take careful note of the CSO's reports. It is also interesting and encouraging to see a county such as Leitrim expand its population, which tells another story. This has huge implications for our spatial strategy and for Transport 21. The Government has already embraced the figures reflected in the census by planning ahead, as have the social partners. From my perspective, the CSO performs invaluable work across a wide range of areas. It helps the Government of the day and local authorities to plan correctly for the future.
The Minister of State mentioned that the figures for Dublin West breached the constitutional limits, in that they exceed the figure of one Member per 30,000 people. Does he expect a significant variation between the preliminary figures and the final figures? He should bear in mind that in 1947, the then Fianna Fáil Government revised the constituencies based on the preliminary figures so a precedent exists. I believe I heard the Director General of the CSO mention that it did not expect significant variations between the preliminary figures and the final figures, because in this case the computer technology appears to work well. When exactly does the Minister of State expect to publish the final figures? I wish to draw his attention to the fact that in Dublin West, a population of more than 90,000 elects three Deputies in breach of the constitutional limits. However, in Dún Laoghaire, a population which is not much bigger——
This is a matter for the Minister of the Environment, Heritage and Local Government.
Allow me to finish the point. While its population is not much bigger, it elects five Deputies.
We are moving well away from the question, which pertains to——
It is really important.
——the area of responsibility of the Minister of State.
Does the Minister of State expect a significant variation between the preliminary and final figures and when exactly will the final figures be produced? I understand from the CSO that its method of enumeration is now so good that the difference between the final figures and the preliminary figures could be insignificant. In that case why can the final figures not be made available much sooner? Is the Government delaying their publication in order to deal with the population divergence and breach of the Constitution, as shown by the preliminary figures?
Most definitely, no one is delaying anything in this regard. As I noted earlier, something like 16 publications are planned and promised before the end of 2007. That is the specific commitment made by the CSO. Hence, it has a carefully planned programme of work to undertake. I am not in a position to comment on the differentiation between the preliminary and definitive figures. We must await the outcome to see how it pans out. We may speculate all we wish and I am inclined to agree with the Deputy that in the times in which we live, there may not be much of a discrepancy. However, we must await the outcome.
As legislators, we must also be directed by the Attorney General, and in this case he has advised that constituencies may only be revised on the basis of the final census figures. This would be the advice received whether Fianna Fáil or the Labour Party was in Government. We cannot work with preliminary figures. The Deputy referred to the actions of a previous Government. We are advised by the Attorney General on those lines and this is the advice to which we will adhere.
I call Deputy Trevor Sargent.
Can the Minister of State give us the date of the publication?
I have called Deputy Sargent.
I asked for the date of the publication of the final figures.
I expect that they will be published early next year, perhaps around April. We have to wait.
April is not early next year.
It is not late.
That is pushing it back.
I ask the Deputy to allow Deputy Sargent to speak.
Does the Minister of State accept, given that a change will not be made before the election, that it is likely this matter will be dealt with in court?
That does not arise from this question.
I am following on from the previous question. I asked earlier for information about what will happen with the CSO figures. Can I point the Minister of State in the direction of the Fingal Development Board, which has drawn comparisons between the CSO figures for different areas? The board has indicated clearly what it believes the Government's agenda should be if there is to be parity of facilities in Fingal. It has argued that proper planning is necessary if the area is to enjoy the full range of facilities. The Minister for Finance, for example——
The Deputy's comments do not arise from the question before the House.
Skerries is bigger than Tullamore.
Deputy Sargent, please.
Balbriggan is now bigger than Clonmel, as Deputy Healy is aware.
The Chair is speaking. I ask the Deputy to hear the Chair.
I would like to put a suggestion to the Minister of State.
I ask the Deputy to hear the Chair first.
I am very happy to hear the Chair.
There are four questions to be answered by the Minister of State, Deputy Kitt. The Members who submitted those questions are entitled to hear the answers to them.
Two of them are in my name.
The nature of the Standing Orders of the House dealing with Taoiseach's questions means that six months could pass before the Minister of State answers questions again.
We meet him every day.
He might not get to answer them again.
In fairness to the Deputies who submitted questions, they are entitled to receive answers today.
Exactly.
We will not ramble all over the place into the responsibilities of other Ministers.
I am very conscious of what the Ceann Comhairle is saying.
You are not. You are moving away into the areas of other Ministers.
Some 50% of the questions are in my name. I thank that gives me some——
Can I respond to Deputy Sargent, with whom I served at local authority level for some time? The Deputy mentioned Fingal Development Board. I would like to add to what I said earlier in that regard. I am aware that Fingal County Council is one of the most progressive local authorities when it comes to planning for the future. I am conscious of the tremendous work of South Dublin and Dún Laoghaire-Rathdown county councils, which are using the data that is available to them from the CSO and other sources. Surveys have been conducted on traffic movements, etc. I reiterate that this work is invaluable to development boards like Fingal Development Board. I warmly encourage the work of such boards.
Unemployment Levels.
Charlie O'Connor
Question:3 Mr. O’Connor asked the Taoiseach if he will confirm from the Central Statistics Office the latest available unemployment figures for Tallaght, Dublin 24. [30512/06]
The exact information requested by the Deputy is not available. Statistics on employment and unemployment are compiled at a regional level from the quarterly national household survey. There are eight regions in the State — Border, midland, west, Dublin, mid-east, mid-west, south east and south west. Sub-regional statistics of the type requested by the Deputy are not available from the quarterly national household survey. However, the live register series gives a monthly breakdown of the number of people claiming unemployment assistance and unemployment benefit. It also details the other registrants who are registered with the Department of Social and Family Affairs. Figures are published for each county and each local social welfare office. The most recent information that is available, which is for August 2006, indicates that 3,782 persons are on the live register in the Tallaght office. The monthly live register figures for the Tallaght office from 2005 are set out in the following table:
|
Year |
||
|
Month |
2005 |
2006 |
|
January |
3,214 |
3,503 |
|
February |
3,184 |
3,458 |
|
March |
3,273 |
3,484 |
|
April |
3,279 |
3,436 |
|
May |
3,321 |
3,374 |
|
June |
3,456 |
3,618 |
|
July |
3,649 |
3,733 |
|
August |
3,558 |
3,782 |
|
September |
3,291 |
|
|
October |
3,146 |
|
|
November |
3,176 |
|
|
December |
3,302 |
|
|
Average |
3,321 |
Source: Live Register Series, Central Statistics Office.
It should be noted that the live register is not a definitive measure of unemployment as it includes part-time workers and seasonal and casual workers who are entitled to unemployment assistance or benefit. Statistics on unemployment are measured at regional level by the quarterly national household survey. The exact area covered by each local office is not limited to the immediate locality of the particular office. For example, people from the Blessington area may be registered in the Tallaght local office.
I am delighted to have an opportunity to say a few words on this issue. My question is sandwiched between two questions from my Green Party friend, Deputy Sargent. I am sure someone will come up with a slogan about that. I am interested that the clár describes Tallaght as being in Dublin 4. I am not sure how the people of Tallaght will react to that.
It is social engineering.
Maybe The Echo, which is based in Tallaght, will react to that description. I know it monitors these occasions.
The Deputy will get lots of coverage.
I look forward to hearing what my neighbour, Deputy Crowe, has to say about the matter. I would like to comment on this serious issue. I am interested in examining the unemployment figures for the Tallaght region because this month is an opportune time to do so.
Does the Deputy have anything in the nature of a question?
I am getting to it.
The Echo is listening.
The Chair should not be a spoilsport.
As the Ceann Comhairle is aware, I am not as experienced as Deputy Sargent and others in this regard.
The Deputy is not as shy either.
I am trying to follow Deputy Sargent's example.
I have asked twice as many questions as Deputy O'Connor.
I ask the Ceann Comhairle to give me half a second to do a preamble and then I will get to my questions. I might also give the Minister of State some advice. It is opportune to raise this issue at this time because the 16th anniversary of the opening of The Square shopping centre in Tallaght falls on 23 October next. Those of us who live and work in Tallaght know, as the Ceann Comhairle does as a result of his many visits to the area, that everything that is happening in Tallaght today started on 23 October 1990. Tallaght is now a superb city with many employment opportunities and all the facilities one would expect in a major urban area.
We need to meet the job creation needs of Tallaght, which is the third largest centre of population in this country and has a very young population. I would be grateful if the Minister of State, Deputy Kitt, could convey the information he has given to me this morning, which will be of great interest to the people of Tallaght, to the Minister for Enterprise, Trade and Employment. It is important for the Department of Enterprise, Trade and Employment to understand that Tallaght continues to face many job creation challenges. I hope the Minister of State will help me in that regard.
I am happy to assist the Deputy, who is famous for promoting the interests of Tallaght. We all admire him for that. It is clear that the employment news is good. I have mentioned the results of the quarterly national household survey and the state of the live register. Over 2 million people were in employment in this State in the second quarter of this year. That figure comprises Irish people and the many immigrants who have come to these shores. We warmly embrace the new, modern and multicultural Ireland that is developing. I will convey Deputy O'Connor's wishes for future investment in Tallaght to my colleague, the Minister, Deputy Martin.
Reference has been made to the size of many of the new towns which are developing in the greater Dublin area. Deputy Sargent spoke earlier about some of the towns in Fingal. Deputy O'Connor has always promoted the needs of Tallaght as a major town. I will convey that message to the Minister.
Does the Minister of State accept that the monthly decrease in the rate of unemployment can be attributed to seasonal factors? The underlying trend is that there has been almost no change in the live register. While the relevant unemployment figures for Tallaght and Ballyfermot fell in the month referred to by the Minister of State, the number of people on the live register is higher than it was for the same month in 2005. Is it not clear to the Minister of State that economic growth is bypassing some key neighbourhoods in the Tallaght area?
Tallaght should be an economic hub because it is so close to transport centres, such as major roads. Over the last year, traditional industries have decided to move to cheaper locations, unfortunately. We have seen an increase in the number of people receiving unemployment payments. I ask the Minister of State to explain why so many people in the Tallaght area are unemployed. Specific strategies are normally introduced in economic areas where there have been significant job losses, like those which have been experienced in Tallaght over the last year. We have not seen the various agencies coming together in the Tallaght area, however.
Does the Deputy have a question?
Why have we not seen a response from the various agencies? Can the Minister of State confirm that 888 people under the age of 25 are on the live register in the Tallaght area? I have been told that 888 is supposed to be a lucky number in China, but I do not think it is a lucky number for the young people in the Tallaght area who are stuck on——
There are 8,000 bicycles in Beijing.
That may be so, but we are talking about young people who are unemployed.
I think the correct figure is 9 million.
Is it 9 million?
Perhaps people in China can get on their bikes to look for employment.
Maybe the Deputy should get on his bike.
I do not think those bikes are available in the Tallaght area. It is clear that the increase in unemployment is a growing worry for people in the Tallaght area. Many young people in the area are in low-paid employment in shopping malls etc. Many of them have short-term work in the construction industry. Is there a strategy in this regard? It is different from the rest of the country as shown in recent trends. What will the Government do in this area where the figures seem to be growing?
Deputy Crowe's question may be more appropriate to another Minister.
I acknowledge that seasonal issues affect the live register. It decreased from 158,200 in August to 155,300 in September which may reflect students returning to college and so on.
I have come to know Tallaght fairly well over the years as a member of the local authority and have seen, working with colleagues from my party, tremendous advances made there. Infrastructural projects such as Luas have provided linkage with the rest of the city. The retail and construction sectors have grown and companies like Jacob's are important in the area. We all know how Tallaght has changed positively over the years and the responsibility to ensure this pace of development continues rests with us all. There are huge links between educational opportunities and employment which should be remembered where there are pockets of need. I will not give a long answer to this because it applies more appropriately to some of my colleagues in Government.
Tallaght will always remain a priority here primarily because there are some representatives who never cease to discuss it. Deputy Crowe's point is well made and will be considered.
I do not represent Tallaght, but I represent an adjoining area and the impact of employment issues there has become significant as Tallaght represents such a dominant area for South Dublin County Council. The Square shopping centre, the hospital, the college and so on are important factors in the area. Employment opportunities in Tallaght affect a wide area but my question is more general, although it has an impact on such matters.
Various sources, including the Economic and Social Research Institute, have sounded a note of caution regarding the opening of the Irish labour market to citizens of the new EU accession countries, Bulgaria and Romania. What is the Government's view on this?
I am not sure how relevant this question is.
We are happy that Bulgaria and Romania will join the EU on 1 January 2007. Many of my colleagues, including the Taoiseach, have been cautious on the issue of labour market access and the Government will make its decision on this before the end of the year, after consulting with the social partners. I note the cautious comments made by the ESRI. The Taoiseach and Minister for Enterprise, Trade and Employment have suggested that Ireland may seek to adopt a different approach and introduce a work permit scheme for workers from Bulgaria and Romania, although such a decision will not be made until December. I accept the Deputy's points. We have a booming economy, we warmly welcome workers from accession countries but the Government will be cautious regarding Bulgaria and Romania.
Consumer Price Index.
Trevor Sargent
Question:4 Mr. Sargent asked the Taoiseach if he will report on the Central Statistics Office’s recent publications regarding the consumer price index; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [30653/06]
The latest consumer price index, CPI, publication refers to August 2006 when the annual rate of inflation was estimated at 4.5%, compared with 4.2% in July and 2.3% in August 2005. The current annual rates of over 4% are the highest recorded since early 2003 and are significantly higher than the average annual rates of 2.5% and 2.2% recorded in 2005 and 2004 respectively.
The most notable contributing changes in the year to August 2006 were increases in housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels, up 16.9%, transport, up 5.2%, education, up 4.7%, restaurants and hotels, up 4.3% and health, up4.1%. Clothing and footwear fell by 3.6% and furnishings, household equipment and routine household maintenance fell by 1.2%.
The annual rate of inflation for goods was 1.7% in August while the corresponding rate for services was 7%.
The annual rate of inflation in August, as measured by the EU harmonised index of consumer prices, HICP, rose to 3.2% in August, up from 2.9% in July and 2.1% in August 2005. The differences between the CPI and HICP mainly reflect the exclusion of mortgage interest costs from the latter. Using the HICP, the overall annual rate of inflation for both Economic and Monetary Union, EMU, countries and the EU as a whole in August was 2.3%.
Does theMinister of State agree that mortgage costs should be included in the CPI as personal debt is so high in the country? I recently read that, on average, every man woman and child in Ireland has personal debt of €32,000. Perhaps the Minister for Finance could update those figures for us. It is time to seek a more realistic CPI report, given the interest rates that will affect much of the aforementioned debt. This is in addition to an increase of 34% in gas costs and 20% in electricity. Is the Minister of State satisfied that the Government is getting the whole picture using the CPI as it currently exists? Can the CPI be broadened to include those real costs that affect people?
There is a category that covers housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels. The CPI also covers alcoholic beverages, clothing and footwear, furnishings, health, transport, communications, recreation and culture, education, restaurants and hotels and miscellaneous goods and services. The Minister for Social and Family Affairs has made provision to ensure that the vulnerable are helped at times like this. There are positive signs regarding oil prices that will be factored in when the next set of statistics are released. The CPI provides a comprehensive set of figures. If we considered the HICP, which excludes mortgages, we would be in a favourable position.
The Minister of State indicated that 4.5% was the rate of inflation for August 2006 according to the CPI and he gave a breakdown of the various contributory components. From the information available, can he say what impact, if any, the removal of the groceries order has had?
I have figures for the period January 2005 to date. April 2006 is highlighted as the first month for which data was available following the repeal of the groceries order in March 2006. It can be seen that prices for items affected and not affected by the groceries order increased up to May 2006. Since then items previously covered by the groceries order have fallen in price and are now showing a modest, overall annual decrease of 0.2%. Items that were never covered by the groceries order have continued to display increases and now show an annual increase of 3.5%.
In answer to Deputy Curran's question, items previously covered by the groceries order have fallen in price for the first time since the lifting of the groceries order.