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JOINT COMMITTEE ON FINANCE AND THE PUBLIC SERVICE debate -
Wednesday, 23 Sep 2009

Interest Rate Policy: Discussion with Permanent TSB.

I welcome the chief executive of Permanent TSB, Mr. David Guinane, who is accompanied by Mr. David McCarthy and Mr. Niall O'Grady, and thank them for attending.

Members are reminded of the long-standing parliamentary practice to the effect that they should not comment on, criticise or make charges against a person inside or outside the Houses or an official by name or in such a way as to make him or her identifiable. I draw attention to the fact that members of the joint committee have absolute privilege but the same privilege does not apply to witnesses appearing before the committee.

The purpose of this session is to discuss the recent rise in mortgage interest rates by Permanent TSB. The recent letter from Permanent TSB in response to a committee letter regarding this matter has been circulated for members' information. I invite Mr. Guinane to make an opening statement, following which we will have a general question and answer session for approximately one hour.

Mr. David Guinane

I thank the committee for the invitation to appear before it. I will make a few opening remarks to put this matter in context and, following that, I will be delighted to deal with any questions members may have. Before I begin, I wish to introduce my colleagues, Mr. Niall O'Grady, general manager with responsibility for business strategy at Permanent TSB, and Mr. David McCarthy, group finance director of Irish Life & Permanent plc, our parent company.

The reason we are here is, of course, to respond to the committee's request to discuss the recent rise in mortgage interest rates which we announced on Friday, 24 July last. That decision provoked considerable comment so perhaps I should begin by briefly outlining the decision we announced at the end of July and the background to it. Permanent TSB bank has approximately 190,000 residential mortgage customers, some on variable rates, some on fixed rates and some on tracker rates. At the end of July, we announced that we would be increasing the rate of interest we charge on our variable rate mortgage products by up to 0.5%.

Before reaching this decision, we carefully analysed how this increase would impact on customers. First, it is important to be clear that this decision did not affect all of our mortgage customers. We estimate that some 38% of our mortgage customers — approximately 72,000 customers in total — have some form of variable rate products. The remaining 118,000 mortgage customers — nearly two thirds of our mortgage customers — are not affected by this decision at all and will see no change to their repayments as a result.

There was also some confusion as to how much repayments would rise for those affected by the decision and a lot of exaggerated figures were used. The reality is that the average outstanding mortgage for affected customers stands at €62,500 and the mortgages have, on average, 13 years left to run. Therefore, the decision has led to an average increase in affected customers' monthly repayments of €14.75. It is worth bearing in mind that even after that decision was taken, Permanent TSB remains among the most competitive lenders in the market for standard variable rate mortgages.

If one compares standard variable rate products in the marketplace today, one will find that the rate which we charge is lower than the rate being charged by five other banks and financial institutions, including many household names. The reason is simple, those institutions — none of which is covered by the State guarantee introduced last September — did not pass on all of the ECB rate reductions which took effect over the past 12 months. We did.

When we announced our decision, we made clear that it had been made with regret but that we felt we had no alternative but to do what we did. I will explain what we meant by that. Like all financial institutions, Permanent TSB bank is facing difficult challenges at present. In fact, at the recent results presentation of our parent company, Irish Life & Permanent plc, we confirmed that Permanent TSB bank lost €132 million during the first half of this year. Two factors drove that loss; first, the fact that we had to make extra provisions in light of an increase in impaired loans and, second, the fact that we are having to pay significantly more for the raw material of our business, namely, money.

I will illustrate that point with an example. Today anybody in this room can go into any of our branch offices and if he or she places money in a fixed term deposit account with us, we will pay him or her a rate of interest of 3.5%. We have to do that to compete for deposits, which are our raw material and are critically important to us. However, when we in turn lend money to our customers in the form of mortgages — l will use the example of mortgages on the standard variable rate product after the recent increase — we are only charging 3.19% for the use of that money. It is clear that a business model where one pays more for one's raw material, namely, deposits, than one does for one's finished product, namely, mortgages, is not sustainable.

Some of the criticism we received at the time of the rate increase was based on the fact that the ECB is charging historically low rates for money. If it did not increase its rates why did we? The ECB provides us with approximately 30% of our funding at the moment but it does not set the cost of all the money banks such as ours need to borrow. Other sources — such as term debt and deposits — are quite a bit more expensive than the official ECB rate would imply. Sourcing those funds is incredibly challenging at present. For example, during the course of the early months of this year we and other Irish banks saw many foreign companies take money out of deposit accounts in this country and deposit it in banks in their countries. We estimate that we lost as much as €3 billion in corporate deposits as a result. Thankfully — and it is a tribute to the hard work of all our staff across the country — we successfully replaced that money with approximately half coming from bigger retail and domestic commercial deposits and the balance was re-financed through increased interbank deposits and from new term debt issued. However, it is a tough challenge to be able to do so, and an even tougher one to be able to do so at reasonable rates of interest.

Because funds remain expensive we are seeing what is called our net interest margin decline. The net interest margin is the difference between the interest we earn on loans we have given out and the interest we have to pay on deposits. As that declines, it affects our profitability. When that decline occurred, we sought at first to reduce costs. In the first half of this year, we reduced underlying operating costs in the bank by 10% compared with the same period a year ago. We have significantly reduced the numbers employed by the bank through a number of innovative initiatives such as paying people a portion of their salaries to take a career break with the promise that they would be re-employed in a few years time and not replacing people who were leaving the bank. We froze salaries and cancelled bonuses. We reduced budgets across the business and significantly reduced discretionary spends in all areas of business. We will continue to keep a strong focus on managing costs but it is clear that that alone will not be sufficient to make up for the pressure on our margins. It was that fact — and the outlook for further margin pressure in the months ahead — that forced us to take the decision to raise rates.

It is worth bearing in mind that the rates charged on mortgage lending in Ireland are exceptionally low by international standards. In the UK, for example, the average rate charged on mortgage products is 4.2%. That compares with our standard variable rate after the increase of 3.19%. The gap is more than 1%. In recent months a number of Irish banks have expressed the view that it is difficult to see how rates for mortgages in this country can remain lower than rates for the same products in other countries for much longer. I agree with that view.

In conclusion, I will briefly summarise my key arguments. The margin we are earning from our loans to customers is lower now than at any stage during the past eight years. We are paying people more to put money on deposit with us than we are charging people to borrow money from us. We are committed to being a responsible business. For example, we have avoided the perils of NAMA because we did not engage in the type of toxic lending to developers that has caused so many problems for other banks. We want to ensure that we can continue to play an important role in the banking industry here for many years to come. To do that, we must ensure that we take steps to manage our business responsibly. With that in mind we took the decision to increase the rates that apply to a proportion of our customers with reluctance — but we stand over that decision.

I thank Mr. Guinane for his concise explanation of what exactly is happening in his business. We will take questions first from Deputy Fahey, who raised the issue, and then Deputies Bruton and Burton.

I thank Mr. Guinane for his presentation. We fully understand as a principle that neither the body politic nor the Minister for Finance should interfere in the market and dictate what interest rates are charged by the banking industry. I fully understand the reasons behind the initiative, which were outlined by Mr. Guinane. A 0.5% increase for 72,000 customers might be acceptable, but the main concern is the precedent it creates for other institutions, especially the two main banks, and that Permanent TSB could add to that and charge interest rates at will.

As I said in the NAMA debate in the Dáil this morning, there is now ample evidence that a number of banking groups, especially AIB, have called in customers and informed them that they will be charging them 3% above the cost of borrowing, as opposed to 1.5% previously. There is some evidence to suggest that AIB, for instance, is to increase its rate to 4% above the EURIBOR rate or the cost of borrowings. It would be a cause of major concern if that trend were to continue in the current marketplace. It would defeat the purpose of NAMA. I accept Mr. Guinane's institution is not involved. It would make for an extremely difficult business environment.

In that context I wish to ask Mr. Guinane a number of questions about his presentation. First, what is the actual increase in income for a full year that will accrue as a result of charging 0.5% extra to 72,000 customers? What type of mortgage is held by the remaining 118,000 borrowers? Mr. Guinane said the reason was simple, that none of the institutions covered by the State guarantee introduced in September passed on its rates. Permanent TSB is to be congratulated that it did not do so, which is an issue to be addressed to the other institutions. Mr. Guinane said his bank lost €132 million in the first half of this year. Can he put that in the context of what Permanent TSB's profits were last year and what this year's predicted losses are? How will this particular increase contribute to improving those losses?

With regard to the fact that Permanent TSB has had to make extra provision in light of the increase in impaired loans, can Mr. Guinane tell us how much that contributed to the losses? Can he also tell us how much more the bank has had to pay for raw materials, as he described it, the money?

There is no argument about the fact that Permanent TSB is paying an interest rate of 3.5% and is currently charging 3.19%. Can Mr. Guinane comment on the amount of international deposit income that was moved and the chances of getting that back? Will he also comment on Permanent TSB's ability to raise money on international markets? Is it getting easier or more difficult? Can he not do what the Bank of Ireland did recently by raising €1.5 billion at 1.95% without a guarantee?

Mr. Guinane said that back when other banks were being capitalised, Permanent TSB did not need to be capitalised. That was strange. Can he explain why? Would that not have contributed to the bank's ability to have the resources it needs? Mr. Guinane mentioned interbank deposits and new term debt that is being issued, so he might give some idea of what kind of terms and interest rates are being paid on that.

Mr. Guinane made a comparison with the UK, but will he indicate how Permanent TSB compares with other countries in Europe? Unless I am completely wrong in my understanding, interest rates in Europe are comparable to those for mortgages here. Maybe I am wrong in this respect, but there are still tracker mortgages available which are linked to ECB rates.

We all understand that Permanent TSB has to make a profit. Mr. Guinane is in the business of making profits. Nobody argues with the need for Permanent TSB to have its net interest margin at a sustainable level. Our concern, however, is that if Permanent TSB gets away with 0.5%, what is to stop it slapping another 1% on next week and another 1% later on? For this economy to recover we need to keep very sustainable interest rates. We also need to ensure we follow the ECB rate as closely as possible.

I thank Deputy Fahey for sticking to his two questions. Perhaps Mr. Guinane can answer them.

Mr. David Guinane

I will try to deal with them in the order in which they were asked. The first question was what will this mean to us in additional income for the remainder of this year since we put the rates up from July. That will be €10 million. In a full year this increase will yield €24 million.

The Deputy's second question was what type of mortgages were not affected by this increase. They are largely tracker rate mortgages which track the ECB rate and can only move in line with ECB rate fluctuations and, second, fixed-rate mortgages which are there for a fixed term.

I mentioned the €132 million loss we suffered in the half year. To put that in perspective, as the Deputy rightly said, a large amount of that was due to impairments in our mortgage loans. The provision we made at the half year for impairments was €189 million.

Was that for one year?

Mr. David Guinane

That was for a half year. There was also a question about how we are getting on in sourcing funding from different areas. Obviously, as a bank, we need to fund it on the wholesale markets. Our most recent term issuance was issued at 1.8% over the ECB rate, which would have been at a rate of 2.8%.

A related question was why we said we did not need to be capitalised. The Deputy can correct me if I am wrong, but I assume the question is why did we not allow ourselves to be recapitalised and not have to do this. I mentioned earlier the point about being a sustainable business. One of our key objectives is to be viable without recourse to capitalisation which, as the Deputy knows has happened to other banks, can only be sourced from the Irish people. That is something we do not wish to engage in. We are not in NAMA and have no intention of being. We believe we need to put our own house in order, hence we see that we would be better served by managing our own business.

Finally, there was a question about the money that left us during the period earlier this year when there was a flight of funds abroad, a repatriation of funds. As I said, we lost in the region of €3 billion in corporate deposits, mainly from companies in the UK. They were repatriated to the UK.

How do European interest rates compare with those in the UK?

Mr. David Guinane

I do not have the actual details, but I have significant details on the UK. My understanding is that our mortgage rates would be lower — maybe not significantly lower — compared with the UK. They would be lower than the average European rate charged in a similar fashion. I can get details on that for the committee, but I do not have them with me.

It appears from the presentation that Permanent TSB singled out mortgage holders as the only area in which this rate increase was made. Will Mr. Guinane confirm that is the case and that the bank has not had a drifting upwards in its margins on any of the rest of its business? What is the bank's average cost of funds? In the comparison, Mr. Guinane picked what seemed to be the highest rate of payment on deposits at 3.5% on fixed-interest deposits. He then compared with to the lowest charge on loans, which was 3.2%. Obviously, however, that is distorting the reality because he just said the bank gets 30% of its money from the ECB, which I presume is something over 1%. It gets its own TSB issue at 2.8%. What is the bank's average cost of funds? What has been happening to its gross margin on the gap? How big is the gross margin? Can Mr. Guinane give us some figures? I would like to see the trends in the average cost of funds and gross margins so that we can see the bank is not deciding to target mortgage holders for a substantially increased take. I do not think Mr. Guinane has done that in the presentation. It looks to be selective in the way he has presented it.

Mr. Guinane said the net interest margin has fallen but what is the bank netting out there? Is it netting out the loss provision? Is that part of it? The committee needs to see a fair and accurate representation of what is happening to the bank's costs. Is Mr. Guinane saying that the bank's net interest margin is falling because of loss provision? We genuinely need to see the numbers behind this to give us a run of figures over a number of years to show us that it does not represent an unfair imposition.

What percentage of the mortgage book is the bank making in terms of loss provision? What percentage of the bank's mortgage holders are currently experiencing difficulties, perhaps in loan arrears or on watch? What is the bank's expectation for the number of its mortgage holders who will get into difficulties? How does the bank intend to deal with this? I know there is a code of practice that gives a year's breathing space, but I get the impression that the year is coming to an end. We are now seeing in the courts a rash of repossessions on foot of the termination of that period. I would like to get an understanding of Mr. Guinane's view of the whole process, including the scale of it and the impact of repossession. It is a huge worry in terms of public policy.

Mr. David Guinane

The recent change we made only affected our standard variable rate mortgages. The other lines of lending we have, whether that is term, Visa card lending or overdrafts, have moved consistently with ECB movements. They were not affected and we did not add anything to them as a result.

Although we have made a comparison between one set of deposit rates we offer and one set of mortgages we charge on, the best way to answer the Deputy's question is to look at our overall funding mix, what that costs us and what we can charge in our overall product range other than mortgages, including term lending, commercial lending, etc. Our net interest margin is the best way to look at that. We collect a margin of 2.4% over the ECB rate throughout our portfolio, which means an average interest rate of 3.4%, and we are charged just over 2.5% across the full range of our funding. That leaves a net interest margin of 0.87%. That has been dropping consistently over the past eight years. It has gone from a 1.2% interest rate margin two years ago to 0.87%.

How much is the company netting out? What is the difference between gross and net profit? Is the bank taking out its loss provision?

Mr. David McCarthy

That is purely interest rate flow. Our average asset yields gross at2.4%. Across the main product suites, the gross cost of mortgages ranges from 2.2% to 4% for consumer finance, which includes overdrafts and so on. Our funds cost 1.5% and, therefore, that gives us a net interesting margin of 0.87%. Our most expensive cost of funds currently is customer accounts. On a blended basis, taking everything into account, that comes in at1.9%. That will range from 0% of balances on current accounts to the 3.5% rate referenced by Mr. Guinane for term deposits. Our cheapest form of funding is ECB funding at 1%. We cannot rely wholly on that and 27% of our total borrowings is from the ECB. It is very much a blend across product ranges on both sides of the balance sheet. We have suffered significant gross margin erosion over the past four to five years. If one was to rewind the clock, our gross margins were running at 1.3% but they are now at 0.87%. That is a pure interest rate flow. No loan losses are contained within those numbers.

We reported a loss of €132 million for the first half of the year compared with a profit of €124 million last year. That is a turnaround of €250 million.

Mr. David Guinane

On the question of arrears, which is extremely important, at the half year mark, we had just over 6,000 mortgage holders in arrears, that is, where they were over three months in arrears on repayments, out of approximately 190,000 mortgages, which equates to 3.3%. We all know people who have arrears problem. The members know them as constituents; I know them as customers. We are looking to work with our customers through this period. We wish to work with our customers in the good times and the bad times.

As for the Deputy's question about how bad we think it will be, the worst is over. We can say that because the increase in the number of arrears increased steadily for 12 months but the rate of increase, thankfully, has come down in the past number of months. We have many initiatives in play to work with our customers, not least of which is we encourage them to contact us to work with us. When they do, we have myriad options, which can range from freezing payments for a period to providing for interest only payments, as typical mortgages pay capital and interest through the term, to reducing payments for a period.

Members may be surprised by the resilience of people when they make contact. After all, they are hard working people who through no fault of their own have lost their jobs. No one looks to do that voluntarily and they are extremely resilient. Savings, redundancy and social welfare payments and family support, etc., can be drawn on.

Deputy Burton mentioned the protocols of the guarantee scheme which state that no institution can instigate legal action for a period of six months after customers go into arrears. We have no intention of going that route. As we have said many times, we have no absolutely no intention of repossessing properties. This year we have taken 32 properties into our possession, 28 of which were voluntary surrenders where people decided it was not going to work for them and they returned the keys to us. The other four properties we hold in repossession were investment properties and not family homes. We sincerely hope and expect that trend will continue. I am glad that we see the trend coming down and we hope that continues.

What is the percentage loss provision on the bank's loan book? Has the bank made projections?

Mr. David Guinane

The Deputy is right that we have to look ahead. We believe that between 2009 and 2011 we expect to make provision in the region of €700 million, of which we have set aside €180 million for the first half of this year.

Does the loss of €132 million for the first half of this year include the €180 million?

Mr. David Guinane

Yes, that is directly off the bottom line.

What percentage of the bank's loan book is that?

Mr. David McCarthy

The total impaired book is 1.1% and we consider approximately 0.8% of the Irish mortgage portfolio to be impaired.

I welcome Mr. Guinane and his colleagues. I accept the banks have to be managed responsibly. We have been landed in the crisis we face because some of them were managed irresponsibly. I also accept banks must be healthy and profitable and they must make commercial decisions on that basis. I do not subscribe to the view that the Government should have intervened when the 0.5% interest rate hike was announced, although there was a great deal of hype at the time. That would be a retrograde step. If governments intervened in how banks set commercial interest rates, confidence on the international markets in respect of Irish banks would be greatly undermined. Nonetheless, I expect the banks to be cognisant of the realities faced by the economy.

I refer to the bank's ability to source the cheapest funding available, to which Deputy Fahey referred. Mr. Guinane mentioned the 2.8% issuance of debt recently. Typically at what interest rate is the bank able to source debt currently? He said the most expensive form of funding is customer deposits where the bank must pay an interest rate in excess of 3%. What is the profile of the bank's funding mix in the context of different debt instruments?

Will he outline the profile of the total loan book of Permanent TSB? He referred to the provision of €189 million for losses in the first six months of the year and the expected provision for losses at €700 million. What is the loan mix? Can the delegation give us a picture of the total loan book of Permanent TSB, split between residential mortgages and commercial loans, where the pressure points are at present and what accounts for what he expects will ultimately be a total provision of €700 million? That would be useful.

I have a number of final questions. The key question people want us to ask concerns future interest rates. Based on the current business model at Permanent TSB and the market realities that currently prevail, is the current level of standard variable interest rates sustainable or does the delegation anticipate further increases, aside from any ECB rate increases, in the period ahead? Thousands of people are on the brink and are barely making their repayments at the moment and any further increase would push them over the line and result in the delegation having to make further provision for bad debts. When people contacted us at the time of the announcement, they assumed the delegation were borrowing in full at the ECB rate. That is the assumption many people make. If a bank is paying 1%, they want to know the justification in increasing the interest rate? People do not get into the detail of the funding mix the delegation has and that is why I ask that question. I would like the delegation to give us a profile of its funding mix, the cost of it to the institution and how it can reduce that cost in future, and, related to that, if it is now borrowing beyond the expiry of the State guarantee and how the market is reacting to that.

Mr. David Guinane

Again, I shall outline the cost of funds and our funding mix. I will give the committee the figures of the total of our funding. Customer accounts, which would typically be deposits, represents 29%, long-term funding represents 30%, ECB draw downs represent 27% and short term inter-bank borrowing represents 14%. The respective costs for those are 1.9%, 1.8%, 1% and 1.3%.

The next question——

Is Permanent TSB borrowing the maximum it can from the ECB, if that is the cheapest rate? What are the constraints?

Mr. David Guinane

We are in the lucky situation whereby borrowings from the ECB are based around the fact that we have to collateralise what we call good mortgage assets, of which we have plenty. We reckon that whilst we were in the region of €12 billion at the half-year point, we could access another €2 to €3 billion in ECB funding, and we will seek to do that. It is not just a case that one can do it; one has to get one's assets in play and we continue to do that. It is in our interest to have that as high as possible.

Having said that, looking at it from a rating agency perspective, particularly as a viable bank, we need to have a myriad of different funding forms, one of which would be ECB. With regard to the profile of our book, of the €40 billion loan book we currently have, €27 billion of it is in Irish residential mortgage assets, €8 billion is in the UK — we have a company in the UK which has been closed for the past 18 months but has a balance sheet of some €8 billion——

Is it residential?

Mr. David Guinane

It is residential. In the UK the vast majority of the money concerned is in buy-to-let properties, some 90%. The rest would be residential home loans. These are average figures. The figure is €35 billion. The remainder is split between what we call investment properties, some commercial properties, car loans and term loans. We are a small player in the term loan market and well over 98% of our full book is secured against mortgage assets of one description.

Regarding future interest rates, I realise how important the matter is to this committee and the wider public. I hope it came across in my presentation that when we took the decision we did, we did not do so lightly. It is to be hoped that can be seen from what I said. We understood the impact it would have and the anger and disappointment it would cause, which it did. We would not take a step to raise interest rates again lightly. We have no immediate plans to do that but, unfortunately, it would be irresponsible of me to rule it out in the future, because given our current funding situation, which we have explained, not alone would it be irresponsible but it would be disingenuous to say the situation may not arise in the future. I can assure the committee that would be seen from our perspective as a very serious move, as the previous one was, and we would not take such a decision lightly.

What would force the delegation to take the decision?

Mr. David Guinane

As I explained, the two significant factors which forced us to raise the rate in July were the increased impairments we were suffering and the increased costs of the funding we were looking to access. It is not the only mechanism we have which will ultimately affect our bottom line. We are looking to significantly reduce our costs — we have done this and have further to go. Every effort is being made, and will continue to be made, to do that, but if the current level of impairments and funding mix and costs continue we would have to examine the matter again. I hasten to say we have no plans at present to do so and we hope we will not be in that position in the future.

Based on the current business model, is it more likely than unlikely that in the next three to six months the delegation will be forced into looking at rates again?

Mr. David Guinane

I would not want to evade the question. It is difficult to speculate on the matter. If I had appeared before this committee six months ago, I would have been asked about interest rates and I would not have seen the fact that we would move when we did. I do not have the answer at this stage. All I can do is reiterate that we have no plans at this stage to do it. We knew what we were doing in July. I told the committee what that yielded us for this year and what it will yield for us for the full year next year. It is under consideration on a daily and weekly basis. Many things could happen within the next number of months, on which I am not sure it is appropriate to speculate. NAMA will have an influence on liquidity in the market. I wish to reiterate the point that it is not our intention, if we can avoid it, to do this again, but unfortunately I cannot give a blanket guarantee on that.

I welcome the delegation. To follow up on some of the questions, is the delegation saying that without the ECB window of funds the bank would be bust and that its capacity to remain liquid is heavily dependent on the ECB? The presentation states the bank has lost some €3 billion in corporate deposits. Are those deposits from the UK region returning home? Has the bank been affected by the strong pressure the UK financial authorities have been exerting on a number of institutions to have money returned home to the UK? The bank has some €8 billion of loans in the UK, in a vehicle I know was closed some time ago. Those loans are buy-to-let properties, as I understand it, located mainly in the north of England. What is the likely default rate on such loans? Does the delegation see the British Government and British financial authorities continuing to make a case against the use of Irish institutions? That has been a significant development in the financial market.

From my knowledge of the old savings bank side of the delegation's business, that is, retail customers for mortgages, it seems that many such people were getting near 100% if not 100% mortgages. Many of them were younger people and I am interested in knowing if the mortgages provided in recent times were for 35 or 40 years. Were many of them a kind of buy-to-let package? Were they buying apartments on the fringes of Dublin in places like my constituency with which their parents were helping out with raising the deposit? Some of them are now losing their jobs and emigrating. What is Permanent TSB's take on this? I know these are not technically buy-to-let but they are. I know many parents are making huge efforts to help their adult children make their mortgage repayments.

Mr. David Guinane

The answer to whether we would be bust without the ECB is, "No". Up to 27% — nearly €12 billion – is what we will receive from the ECB at 1%. If we were not qualified, we could add another 1% to that rate. While it would not have us bust, our half-year position would be much worse.

I am familiar with the Deputy's constituency and people borrowing 100% mortgages. The 100% mortgage product was first introduced in 2005 and was available for 14 months. Over that period, we issued just over 8,000 such mortgages. That is not to be confused, as some commentators do, with how many mortgages are in negative equity. Furthermore, 100% mortgages were not given out willy-nilly. They were given out to a particular segment of the population. One had to have a particular minimum salary and one could only buy a particular type of property. For example, we did not lend 100% for one or two-bedroom apartments.

We also felt that even prior to the introduction of 100% mortgages there was a form of 100% lending going on.

Some of these were becoming 110% mortgages as people were getting top-up loans on them for furniture and so forth. It was a strong phenomenon in my constituency.

Mr. David Guinane

I am sure the Deputy is correct about certain circumstances. What we found was that prior to the introduction of the 100% mortgage, the maximum loan to value was between 90% and 92%. It was well publicised that there was parental support for the additional 8% which they had to borrow. In some cases, although it may be anecdotal, this would be borrowed from a credit union.

The good news on the 100% mortgages is that the statistic I gave earlier of just over 6,000 of our total customer base of 190,000 being in arrears, 3.3%, is no different for the 100% mortgage holder. This proves that negative equity, which those people are suffering, does not cause accounts to go into arrears. In the same way, back in the good days when people's house prices were hugely inflated it did not cause them to sell them. It was a nice warm feeling and better than having it in negative equity. The real cause of impairments in mortgage repayments is job loss and salary, bonus or overtime reduction, which many of the Deputy's constituents and our customers have suffered.

I do not believe Permanent TSB was the only bank experiencing the outflow of deposits earlier in the year. What about the influence of the UK financial authorities in this matter?

Mr. David Guinane

It is our understanding and it has been widely reported in the media that much money was repatriated, particularly in January 2009. It was typically corporate companies which would spread their deposits around in UK, Irish and offshore banks. The €3 billion we lost in deposits was with this type of customer.

Regarding the Deputy's question on the British Government's influence in this, I genuinely do not know if there was an influence. When we were losing this money, we were not given anecdotal evidence or otherwise that it was due to British Government influence. I know there has been speculation on this. These were valuable deposits and I also understand significant amounts were withdrawn from other banks.

Regarding deposit rates and attracting depositors, does Permanent TSB find the competition from Anglo Irish Bank very tough in this area?

Mr. David Guinane

We made the point several months ago about outliers in the deposit market. We would obviously like to see rates come down. The bank referred to by the Deputy was very aggressive in this matter earlier in the year but we do not see it at the same level now. There are other institutions which it would not be fair for me to name who are at the higher end of that market.

I thank the delegates for their presentation. Permanent TSB's interest rate timing in July was lousy because of what was happening then politically. There was a great fear that other lending institutions would follow suit. That fear is still there for people who are finding it difficult to make their mortgage repayments.

I note 27% of Permanent TSB's funding will come from the European Central Bank. Why has the bank not borrowed the maximum it can? How does it see interest rates going over the next ten years in Europe? While no houses will be repossessed this year, how many were repossessed in the previous five years? How does Mr. Guinane see the banking sector panning out after this crisis?

Mr. David Guinane

To confirm the point on ECB funding, assets have to be collateralised. Without going into too much detail, there is a process we have to go through on that which we are currently doing with a portion of our mortgage book which is not collateralised and against which we have not drawn down ECB funding. This will take some time. We expect to be able to raise €2 billion more between now and early next year.

We see interest rates flat for the remainder of this year and we see them ticking up by 25 to 50 BPS, basis points, in 2010. I am not saying that with any confidence. There are many factors that will influence that. There is a wish, not just in Europe but internationally, to keep rates as low as possible.

The immediate future of the banking industry will be dictated by NAMA. While we are not directly involved in it, it is of great interest to us. It will be of great benefit to us if it proceeds as expected. Permanent TSB has been referred to in discussions about the consolidation of banks. The Minister for Finance has stated there will be consolidation of those banks involved and those not involved in NAMA. We would be very interested in discussing our involvement. As Deputy Burton has noted, we have a history of good customer service throughout our network, as well as a history of mergers. Irish Life & Permanent was formed in 1999 through a merger of the former State company, Irish Life, and a building society, Irish Permanent. Permanent TSB came into existence in 2001 because of a merger between Irish Permanent and TSB. We are going to see further consolidation in the sector. Although we are not involved, the other banks are going to lose significant portions of their balance sheets via NAMA or whatever other mechanism is decided on by the Oireachtas. I sincerely hope, however, that the banking sector remains competitive and that we will continue to play a significant part. It was not long ago when several of my colleagues spoke to this committee about a lack of competition.

Were repossessions carried out in previous years?

We must proceed so that other members have opportunities to put questions.

In terms of the third force in banking, does Permanent TSB see itself as compatible with the EBS and Irish Nationwide Building Society? Mr. Guinane set out the breakdown of funds across various categories. What was the position prior to the introduction of the guarantee scheme? What is Permanent TSB's tier 1 capital ratio? What is the age profile of the 6,000 mortgage customers who are in arrears and the average size of their mortgages? An average size of €62,500 over 13 years does not reflect the fact that many of those under pressure are young couples who have taken out mortgages relatively recently. I ask for a breakdown of the €700 million being provided for bad debts in terms of mortgages and other areas.

Am I correct to say that Permanent TSB's interest rates are increasing because it does not wish the taxpayer to take an equity stake? Mortgage holders are under severe pressure due to rate increases and this is connected to tier 1 capital ratios.

Mr. David Guinane

I will address the Deputy's questions in the order they were asked. His first question concerned our compatibility with other building societies.

My question was specific to the EBS and Irish Nationwide Building Society.

Mr. David Guinane

Clearly, that will have to be determined in advance if we are to enter an agreement. Our background in banking is probably very similar, however. Irish Permanent was a mutual society before it was converted to a PLC and the TSB, as a Government institution, also had a mutuality ethos. There are broad similarities in that sense. The types of product we offer are not dissimilar, although we are probably a bigger player in what we call the money transmission market via current accounts and ATMs.

In summary, is Mr. Guinane receptive to the possibility of consolidation?

Mr. David Guinane

We are certainly receptive to entering into discussions at the appropriate time to explore the possibility. We would approach the issue with the confidence that we could play a leading role in a mutual or third force of that nature.

The Deputy asked me about the profile of our funding.

I asked the age profile and average mortgage of the 6,000 customers who are in arrears.

Mr. David Guinane

The age profile is not concentrated in any specific segment. These difficulties are being encountered by young, middle aged and older customers. I may have unintentionally misled the Deputy in respect of my reference to the figure of €62,500. This solely represents people who were affected by the rate rise and is not an indication of customers who are in arrears. Our average loan is in the region of €200,000 but that can be skewed between older loans and more recent ones.

Will Mr. Guinane provide a breakdown of the €700 million in loss provisions?

Mr. David Guinane

Perhaps I shall take instead the €189 million we have already charged because €700 million is a forecast. It can be roughly broken down into €80 million in residential mortgage assets, €30 million in our commercial book, €30 million in our UK mortgage buy-to-let book and the remaining €50 million in car finance, term lending, overdraft and visa lending.

What was the breakdown between funding categories prior to the introduction of the guarantee scheme?

Mr. David McCarthy

It was not materially different.

There was a run on deposits. I would like to know the amount of additional ECB funding received by Permanent TSB.

Mr. David McCarthy

Two years ago we had between €6 billion and €7 billion in ECB funding on our balance sheet but this figure has since increased to €12 billion.

How have tier 1 capital ratios changed over the past 12 months and what ratio is envisaged for the next two years?

Mr. David McCarthy

As of June 2009, before the interim capital requirement put in place by the Financial Regulator to move us from Basel I to Basel II calculations, our tier 1 capital ratio was 9.3%. The interim requirement, which is essentially buffer capital, brings it to 11.4%. We are strongly capitalised. The figure is marginally up on last year's position of 9.2%. In looking at capital, our entire group must be taken into consideration. We consist of a large life assurance company and a relatively small bank. Capital is transferred between these organisations and we are in the process of raising €200 million in new capital for the life assurance company, which will be available for deployment anywhere in the group.

In terms of projections for the coming two or three years, is it the intention to increase the tier 1 capital ratio?

Mr. David McCarthy

We project that the tier 1 capital ratio will broadly remain the same. Our working assumption is that any impairment that comes through, such as the move from €189 million to €700 million, can be absorbed by the profitability generated by the back book of the bank. However, this will depend on the shape taken by the industry.

Did Permanent TSB increase deposit rates in July, and if not, why? I am a little surprised also at the way Mr. Guinane referred to customer accounts. Maybe that term includes both those big and small, but he implied that it is a hard slog and they are not too profitable. However, they do not withdraw €3 billion overnight. Figures published the other day show that savings as a percentage of national income have rocketed, from 2% up to 12%. On the customer account for the ordinary man in the street, is Permanent TSB competitive? Is Permanent TSB getting a slice of that 12%? Why is there not a general increase in deposit rates to attract more of that? That is where there is a great deal of money at present, even if it is not well spread. There is supposed to be a great deal of money out there.

In which of the categories, long-term or short-term savings, was the €3 billion to which Mr. Guinane referred earlier? Perhaps customer accounts does not refer necessarily to those of the ordinary man in the street and maybe it refers to large corporate customers as well.

I was interested to hear there are only 8,000 100% mortgage accounts. My problem at the time with those was not so much the number but the message it sent, and how they were marketed. There may always have been some who got 100% mortgages with whom there was no problem based on their future prospects etc., but certainly some financial institutions advertised 100% mortgages with flyers in Grafton Street at lunchtime as if one were being offered a pizza or a €2 drink. It was the message that was sent, namely, to join the queue to buy property. Did Permanent TSB advertise using such flyers?

Mr. David Guinane

On the Deputy's first question, I hope I did not give the impression that customer deposits in any way were a slog or were something in which we were not interested. In fact, since the so-called credit crisis started, our biggest issue has been our underweight in customer deposits and we have made significant inroads into correcting that. I am delighted to state that we are getting quite a portion of the 12% Deputy Ahern mentioned. In the past 18 months our deposit book, that is, customer deposits within Ireland, has increased by nearly 30%, or in excess of €2.5 billion.

The Deputy asked if we increased deposit rates in July. We have consistently — it was the point I made earlier on it being a competitive marketplace — increased deposit rates over the past 18 months and hence we are now paying a market-leading rate of 3.5%. Also, we are paying up to 5% for 18-month money.

On the €3 billion from the UK, there was a mixture. The vast majority of that was short-term, namely six-month terms. Obviously, as these mature they then can be withdrawn, which they were.

Finally, returning to the 100% mortgage issue, we did not advertise with pizza literature. The important point I made earlier to Deputy Burton is that they were for a select segment of the population. As I stated, one had to have certain minimum earnings even to qualify for the 100% mortgage and, although it was popular at the time, we did not lend them for apartments and as a result the vast majority of that 8,000 were couples buying, typically semi-detached houses.

I ask Deputy Fahey, who introduced this, to wrap up.

Would Permanent TSB consider recapitalisation if it meant being able to collateralise further ECB funding at 1.5%? Could Mr. Guinane give any indication of pent-up demand or mortgage applications which would indicate that the market is beginning to bottom-out? Is there any change in the trend whereby, according to what we hear from other banking organisations, people are now applying for a mortgage, not for a particular property but rather to be ready for the market? Finally, what would be the net cost, including the mortgage interest relief, to a first-time buyer borrowing €200,000 from Permanent TSB?

Deputy O'Donnell has a question.

Are there any circumstances where Permanent TSB will require equity capital from the Government? Following on from the point in terms of the third force in banking, has Mr. Guinane had discussions with the Minister for Finance regarding consolidation between Permanent TSB, EBS and Irish Nationwide Building Society, and in the form of those discussions, would Mr. Guinane anticipate that there would be a recapitalisation equity stake needed from the State? Mr. Guinane might cover those two points.

I apologise for being late. What is the current state of requests for mortgages? Could Mr. Guinane give some indication as to the type and volume of requests and whether Permanent TSB is in a position to meet them? Has Permanent TSB new criteria in terms of what it will lend?

Mr. David Guinane

I will deal with Deputy Fahey's questions first. Deputy Barrett asked a similar question on how today's mortgage market looks and the trends. This would not be news to members of the committee. Demand for house purchase in Ireland has significantly dropped, particularly in this year. The recent figures across the industry for the half-year show mortgage lending down by 70% on a year-on-year basis, and Permanent TSB is down by 80%.

There are two aspects to what is happening. One is, to take Deputy Fahey's point, that people are looking to what we call "approve" themselves for a mortgage. While our conversion rate from application to approval has dropped not significantly from what we call the boom years, we are still doing a great deal of that. What people have decided, rightly or wrongly, is that there has been significant house price deflation in Ireland, particularly since 2007, and they expect that to continue and as a result they will not buy. There has been much of that, as the committee will be aware, and it is well documented where people have bought houses in an estate and a couple of years later the price is reduced significantly. People are deciding — whilst they may wish to see how they stand, for want of a better term, for a mortgage — they are not willing to make that commitment and the amount of approvals we get that never turn to mortgage is significant.

How significant?

Mr. David Guinane

I can give general figures. We would be approving in the region of 60% of applications and the draw down would be as low as 20% of applications.

Has Permanent TSB changed the requirements, such as the multiple of salary which one may borrow and the percentage of the price which must be made up by deposit? Can Mr. Guinane give some indication of what is the requirement?

Mr. David Guinane

There were two significant changes. First, we have brought down the amount of loan to value, LTV, that we offer. Prior to the 100% mortgage, that had been92%. It went to 100% and we have taken it down to 90% for a direct house purchase.

The second significant change is what we call our stress test, that is, what we will stress a customer's application against for future increases. Despite what we are here to discuss, namely, the interest rate increase, mortgage rates are at historically low levels because of the ECB rate being so low. The calculation we use for anybody's mortgage, which can vary depending on the amount of salary, is typically that the maximum loan we will offer is where repayments amount to 35% of someone's net disposable income. Because rates are historically low, we are stress testing that to 3% above that level. That will significantly reduce the amount we allow people to borrow in comparison to 2007 and before that.

Is that 25% of disposable income?

Mr. David Guinane

It is 35%. In fairness — I could be here all afternoon — for different salary caps, that could be greater. If one was earning as high as €70,000 or €80,000, that might be 45%, etc. For those on the average industrial wage, 35% would be the norm. What we are saying is that such is a repayment amount. I am not, in answer to the previous question, stating that rates will be going up in the short-term, as I mentioned earlier, but obviously over the typical term of 20 years one will see much fluctuation and we are now guarding against that in our calculations. Those are the two significant changes. There has been considerable comment about banks not being open for business, etc. While the hurdles that customers now need to jump are greater and they also need to find a 10% deposit as opposed to 8% as it was previously or in some cases 0%, for people who met those criteria, we are still approving and funding loans.

Is there any indication of an increase? How many——

Deputy Fahey——

How many mortgages have you approved that are not being taken up? What is the €200,000 repayment?

Deputy Fahey through the Chair please. We have another session and we are running half an hour behind schedule. I know this is a very interesting discussion. However, Deputy O'Donnell asked a question. After Mr. Guinane deals with that we will need to move on.

Mr. David Guinane

I ask the Deputy to remind me of his question.

Has Mr. Guinane had discussions with the Minister about the third force in banking and, if so, how advanced are those discussions? If that third force were to come into play how much equity does Mr. Guinane envisage would be needed from the State?

Mr. David Guinane

There has been no serious discussion with the Minister.

Have there been some discussions?

Mr. David Guinane

There has been some very preliminary discussion with departmental officials but nothing in any way significant. It genuinely has not got to that stage. Does the Deputy accept it is a speculative conversation? I will answer it in that spirit. It is well documented that the two building societies the Deputy mentioned earlier will require in some case significant support via NAMA and capitalisation. In the interest of being speculative, that would have to be done and a line drawn under that prior to any engagement with ourselves. If the Deputy accepts that they would need that, if it should arise that we are in that type of engagement we would expect to be there post-NAMA, where for want of a better term banks have been NAMA——

Does Mr. Guinane envisage Permanent TSB not needing any further capital from the State?

Mr. David Guinane

No.

I thank Mr. Guinane, Mr. O'Grady and Mr. McCarthy for their presence here this afternoon. I am sure many people will find the presentation and the replies to the many questions asked illuminating as to what is really happening in the banking business. It would be very helpful for people to understand what is happening. I thank them again and wish them well in the year ahead.

Sitting suspended at 3.45 p.m. and resumed at 3.50 p.m.
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