Seanad Éireann debate -
Wednesday, 8 Nov 1944

Vol. 29 No. 3

Public Business. - Adjournment Debate:—Depression In Cattle Industry.

Mr. Baxter

A fortnight ago I gave notice to raise on the Adjournment the following matter:—

"To ask the Minister for Agriculture if he will state the causes of the present depression in the cattle industry and if he will make a statement as to the action he has taken, or proposes to take, to effect an improvement in the existing situation; further, if he will state what the outlook is for the industry in the immediate future."

I gave that notice a fortnight ago. Through circumstances over which I had no control, I was unable to raise the matter then. Any information I have about the situation satisfies me that any improvement that has taken place in the situation since is very slight, indeed. Doubtless, the position is well-known to the Minister for Agriculture. What has worried me is that no statement was made by him on the matter. I do not suggest that the situation was one in which the Minister was all-powerful, or which he could set right by a wave of his hand. I am satisfied that that is not so, but it is difficult for him to appreciate the confusion that obtains amongst farmers regarding the present condition of things. I am speaking mainly of the counties of smaller farms, where young cattle have been on offer in the markets for the past couple of months. We are confronted with a situation which is no better than that of 1936 and 1937. Nobody standing over cattle in the fairs is able to offer any explanation. There must be reasons for the present position. There must be some explanation why men who bought cattle at from £12 to £14 in spring are quite unable to find anybody to whom they can sell them.

The men down the line—the men with the smaller cattle—are in a more difficult position. In many parts, the hay crop is very short. Fabulous prices were paid for hay in many of the poorer parts of the country. The crop was very short and the amount of food available for our cattle throughout the winter is so restricted that many farmers are terribly worried. I find fault with the Minister for not issuing a statement regarding the whole position. Farmers are not disposed to throw their cattle away, but we do not know what we are up against. We do not know when the markets will brighten up, or if they will brighten up. The present position is contrary to all the ordinary expectations of the farmers.

I heard various reasons advanced for the existence of the present position, but the general body of our farmers do not know what is wrong. I have heard most extraordinary explanations for the depression, and I have brought the matter before the House because I want to have revealed whatever information the Minister has. I believe that the farmers ought to have whatever information is at the Minister's disposal (1) as to the causes of the present situation; (2) as to the likelihood of an improvement and (3) when such improvement may be expected. It has been suggested that there was a certain amount of speculation in this matter last harvest and in the spring—that men purchased cattle at prices that are not realisable to-day and that they paid high prices for grassland. I do not like speculative situations in the cattle industry at any time. It is bad for the industry and it is bad, in the end, for all who engage in it. Speculation in any branch of agriculture has a very depressing effect on production. I want to secure that the limited number of people who can get information, those who can get in on the ground floor, so to speak, will not be able to take advantage of the present position and to buy cattle far below their real value. Cattle ought to be worth much more money to-day than farmers are able to obtain for them. Anybody who knows anything about the protean position in the world should know that cattle are valued for much more than is being offered for them at present. Thousands of farmers would hold on to their cattle for a month or two if they felt there was real justification for believing that this depression would pass off. Such men should be encouraged to hold on and not throw their cattle on a market that cannot absorb them. The farmer-producer should have the first opportunity of making any profit there is to be made from the raising of his own stock.

I have not brought up this matter in order to be critical of the Minister except in so far as what I have said is criticism—that he has remained silent. The Minister knows quite well that the farmers are in a terribly uncomfortable situation at this time of year. They have been able to turn some of their crops into cash, but the price of cattle has such an effect on our whole farming economy that, when we are unable to sell, incomes on the farms are very much smaller than they should be. The effects of this depression will be reflected not only on the farmers who have to find money for rates, rent and labour, but on the country generally. It is necessary that something should be said by the Minister to restore confidence. An exact comparison could not be made with a stock exchange situation, but there is some resemblance in the position of the cattle industry at the moment. If the Minister can offer any comfort to the farmers, his statement will be as welcome as it is necessary.

Minister for Agriculture (Dr. Ryan)

Every Senator knows that we are producing more cattle than we can consume as beef and, for many years, going back for 100 years at least, there has been a surplus which has been always exported. The first thing I should like to do is to give some slight indication of the exports of cattle for the last three or four years. I am not permitted to give numbers, but I can give Senators the information they require without mentioning numbers. There was an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease here in 1941 and it seriously interfered with the export of cattle. In 1942 we had very high exports in numbers, which was probably due to the fact that cattle were held over from 1940 and 1941 because of restrictions on exports. Senators will remember that exports only commenced at the end of 1941. In 1943 we had what might be regarded as normal exports. Prices were very good, there was a very good demand for exports, and no reason why cattle should not go out if surplus to our own requirements and surplus to farmers' ability to keep them over the winter. I think in every way it might be regarded as a normal year under present conditions. I should like to say, however, that there is always that tendency amongst farmers—I do not know if it applies to other business men— when a thing is very dear they hold on, and when very cheap they try to get rid of it. In a year like 1943 when prices were good farmers held on to cattle and in fact bought more. In 1944, and especially in present conditions, when cattle are going down they have to try to get rid of them. We must keep that fact in mind. Taking exports for 1944 I find that for the first four months, January, February, March and April exports were about the same as in 1943.

Then certain restrictions came along. Senators will remember that there were restrictions on travel, and restrictions on shipping, with the result that exports of cattle in May and June were very much lower than in the corresponding months of 1943. But from July 1st exports were higher. I have very little doubt but that the total exports for 1944 will be as high as those for 1943. We can take it, therefore, that the number of cattle going out in 1944 is quite normal, and there is no reason why any difficulty should arise, unless some other conditions which we must look for enter into the position here. There was first an upset in the markets in England. Senators will have noticed from the newspapers that there has been a good deal of foot-and-mouth disease in England recently and that markets that took a good deal of our cattle—York, Northampton, Shrewsbury and Selby—have been closed. Although the numbers going out last year were, in fact, higher than in the corresponding months of the previous year, still the fact that cattle are not going to the usual markets may have some influence on prices, and may not be an encouragement to exporters and buyers here to pay the best possible prices. Although I have not heard it from any farmers with whom I discussed the matter, it is possible that some are not able to keep as many cattle as they kept last winter, because the hay crop and the yield of straw were both down, and there was also a good deal of failure in root crops, taking the country as a whole. That may have influenced farmers not to try to carry more cattle now than they did this time last year, in other words, to keep less this winter.

I think that the same conditions have an influence on the situation as applied to British farmers, who are in much the same position. The hay crop there was bad, the yield of straw was low and root crops were poor. They may not be as eager to buy cattle as they were last year. In fact, they are buying as many cattle, but they may not be competing so acutely, one against another, on the other side of the Channel for cattle and, as a result, there are sufficient cattle being placed on the markets in England to supply the demand there. That want of demand reduced demand here compared with last year, and is, probably, due to the fact that farmers in England have not as great a quantity of feeding, hay, straw and roots as they had last year. The position is fairly clear. I read statements in the newspapers that were made through the country, which tried to attribute the failure to sell cattle in the British market to various causes, to various omissions on the part of the Government and of other people. I do not know why people should make such statements, unless they thought there was something in them or why they should expect intelligent people to believe these stories. I do not think intelligent people do believe them, because it must be very obvious that any English or Scottish farmer, if he has the feeding to spare, will buy cattle. If he has not the feeding he will not buy. I do not think it is going to make the slightest difference, as some people suggested, if this Government went out and if another Government came in, in persuading the English or Scottish farmer to buy an extra bullock if he had not the feeding. It would not be necessary to persuade any farmer in England or Scotland to buy an extra bullock if he had the feeding. I should like if anybody could point out if I am wrong. All depends upon the demands of English and Scottish farmers, and that demand will depend on how they are circumstanced with regard to feeding. I think that is the explanation, that they have not got as much feeding as they had at this time last year.

The market is quite open. There is no regulation as it were on the export market. It is an open market. This British market, for our cattle, is a market that takes all our surplus cattle. It may have great advantages but remember with great advantages we have to face disadvantages also, and one disadvantage is that we have no control whatever over that market, and we can do nothing about it, because we cannot make them take more than they want to take. We cannot, unless we create a scarcity which is not possible in present circumstances, because we have too many and we cannot influence prices to any great extent. We have, therefore, to accept the position as it is, and to remember that when dealing with a falling market of that kind, the ordinary economic laws of supply and demand must take their course. I have had talks with people in the trade who are buying cattle every day and shipping them to England, and they see the situation just as I see it.

They recognise the only thing the Government can do here is to try to see that there is no hold up with regard to shipping and that there is no obstacle, as it were, put in the way of the shipper. As far as my Department and every other Department are concerned, they have done everything possible to see that there is no obstacle of that kind: There was, as I mentioned already, a shipping difficulty created last May or June, but that difficulty was not created on this side. It arose out of certain war measures that Great Britain took at the time. Every Senator can remember the circumstances for himself. I think that those gentlemen who came to see me, gentlemen like Senator Counihan, who know a good deal about the cattle trade, will agree that if we allow things to take their course, there may be an improvement. If we are right in our diagnosis of the situation with regard to the feeding position in England and with regard to the various centres to which our cattle go—and while we may not have very precise information, at least we have good information about the trend of prices in this country; we know there cannot be very many more cattle in the country than last year—if we are right in regard to all these points, I think there is every probability that there will be better demand for good forward cattle, at any rate, in the spring and early summer.

Senator Baxter said that he would like me to give some indication as to whether there is going to be a change in the position, if so, what that change is going to be and when the change may be expected. I am afraid I cannot give a very reliable forecast of what is likely to eventuate. I think it is fairly obvious to every Senator that if the British are not able to feed as many cattle this winter as last winter—and I think that is fairly certain—there will be then a better demand next spring than last spring because there will be fewer cattle with which to start the year. I think we are fairly safe in assuming that the position will improve next spring or early next summer. If I were advising a friend who was in a position to hold his cattle over I would say: "Certainly, hold them over", but giving advice to the country in general is a very serious matter. I may be wrong and I am merely indicating the position as I see it. I think, at any rate, that people should not, if they can at all avoid it—and I suppose most people can manage to hold their cattle a little longer—put their cattle on the market at the present time and accept sacrifice prices for them. The position will in all probability improve. I am afraid that is all I can say in reply to Senator Baxter's query as to whether I could give any information or opinion as to what the future trend of prices is likely to be.

Mr. Counihan

I just want to make one request to the Minister. Senator Baxter, in raising this question, said that all he wanted was to get a statement from the Minister—to get a "tip" as to what was going to happen. I do not think that the Minister can forecast what is going to happen in the cattle trade. The point arises that one of the causes of the slump—I shall not go into all the other causes—is that we have less shipping. I understand that in Cork no accommodation is provided to get cattle out of the port, and in Dublin the congestion is very heavy. I should like to point out to the Minister that there is a boat lying idle in Dublin, the old cattle trade boat, the "Assaroe," and I am sure if the question were put to the B. and I Company or the London, Midland and Scottish Company of chartering this boat they would be agreeable to do so. The boat would carry about 400 or 450 cattle, and if it could make two trips a week, it would be a great advantage to the cattle trade if it were put into commission. It has been lying up for four or five months at the North wall. It was formerly chartered to go to Spain with horses and I think it was refitted for that purpose. I think it could again be adapted for the cattle trade.

Mr. Baxter

If the facts are as the Minister states—and I am sure he has all available information in regard to them—if we are exporting as many cattle as last year, I cannot understand why there is so little evidence of competition at our fairs for cattle which are offered for sale.

Mr. O'Callaghan

Perhaps I might be allowed to reply to the point raised by Senator Baxter. As far as I can see the position, 1943 was a very good grass and root crop year. The result was that farmers went into the market to buy cattle. Instead of selling, they were actually buying cattle, with the result that a very good demand was created. They did not know where to stop, with the result that cattle bought in the fall of 1943 would not make their price in the fall of 1944. That, I think, would answer the point raised by Senator Baxter. Cattle were being bought for the home market and were not being shipped. The fairs were going full tilt and cattle were changing hands. I think I can say that we are very grateful to the Minister for the statement he has made and that it will have a very steadying effect on the country. The suggestion made by Senator Counihan is one that certainly should be considered, and if the Minister could arrange to have that boat made available for the trade it would be a big help. I should only like to say in conclusion that cattle-raising is a speculative enterprise and people who go in for that trade must be prepared for the swing of the pendulum. They must be prepared for ups and downs in the trade. That has always been the case as long as we can remember. The Minister, of course, is not a prophet and could not attempt to prophesy what is likely to happen the trade, because very often the unexpected arises.

The Seanad adjourned at 9 p.m. until 3 p.m. on Thursday, 9th November, 1944.