The Appropriation Bill is an annual piece of legislation which formally appropriates the departmental Estimates for the supply services, both capital and non-capital, and all Supplementary Estimates which have been approved by the Dáil since the previous year's Appropriation Act. The appropriations for the various services in the Bill this year, as set out in the Schedule to the Bill, amount to £6,452,474,000. This comprises net Estimates totalling £6,376,111,000 as set out in the revised 1989 Book of Estimates, published after the 1989 Budget and Supplementary Estimates, totalling £76,363,000 as passed by the Dáil this year. The Bill also authorises £619,444,000 in departmental receipts to be used as appropriations-in-aid.
Another very important function of the Bill is its use in providing a statutory basis in 1990 for the "four-fifths" issues procedure. This procedure, which is authorised by the Central Fund (Permanent Provisions) Act, 1965, permits the Minister for Finance to make issues from the Exchequer towards the cost of services in 1990 prior to the adoption by the Dáil of the individual Estimates.
The Bill also affords Seanad Éireann an opportunity of discussing economic developments of the past 12 months. I am happy to report that we have had yet another very successful year in which we sustained, and in many cases bettered, the very positive performance of 1988. The outcome has been increased employment, the continuation of the downward trend in the live register, major growth in investment and a current account surplus on the balance of payments for the third year in succession. Following on an annual average growth rate of 3½ per cent in 1987 and 1988, the economy is forecast to continue with a similar strong rate of growth this year.
Manufacturing output growth this year is expected to reach 12½ per cent, similar to that experienced in 1988. A most encouraging feature of the recovery in manufacturing output is the fact that it is broadly based, with contributions to growth coming from the traditional sectors as well as the high technology ones.
After a long period of stagnation and decline, the construction industry has entered a strong recovery phase with growth in the sector forecast at about 7 per cent in 1989. This, I might add, bears out what the Government have consistently been saying; that recovery in the building industry would follow closely on a general economic recovery.
Exports of goods and services, which grew in volume terms at an average annual rate of over 11 per cent in 1987 and 1988, are expected to increase by a similar amount this year. Overall we expect a trade surplus of about £2 billion in 1989, much the same as last year's performance.
For the third year in a row, the current account of the balance of payments will be in surplus, something that has not happened since the Emergency when abnormal conditions prevailed in international trade. The significance of this achievement is best demonstrated by the fact that from the beginning of the 1980's up to 1986, the annual deficit on the current account of the balance of payments averaged over 8 per cent of GNP, whereas over the past three years we will have experienced an average surplus of about 1½ per cent of GNP.
The recovery we are witnessing is not confined to the manufacturing and exporting sectors alone. Growth in consumption and investment are also contributing. The volume of investment is expected to rise by over 8 per cent this year. As already mentioned the building industry is recovering strongly. Machinery and equipment investment, the engine of industrial expansion, is forecast to rise by about 10 per cent in 1989 following on a 3 per cent volume increase last year. Consumer spending growth is expected to accelerate from 3 per cent in 1988 to 4¾ per cent this year. This compares with stagnant personal consumer spending in the first half of this decade.
Unfortunately, because of international factors, inflation this year will average about 4 per cent compared with just over 2 per cent in 1988, which itself was the lowest level since 1960. At 4 per cent nonetheless our inflation rate is still below the European Community average and will be well below that of the UK, our main trading partner. Inflation will moderate next year and by the end of 1990 it should be down to about 3 per cent.
This low rate of inflation coupled with moderate wage increases, has made us much more competitive. Competitiveness of course is essential for growth and the maintenance and expansion of employment.
One of the most encouraging features of the economic recovery has been the improvement in the employment situation. The most recent labour force survey indicates that the recovery in private non-farm employment continued through 1988. In the 12 months to April 1989, there was a nett gain of 6,000 jobs in manufacturing. In 1989, non-agricultural employment is projected to be up to 13,000 higher, on average, than in 1988, reflecting strong job growth in the private sector. Over the two years, 1988 and 1989, private sector non-agricultural employment is forecast to increase by well over 30,000. The developments are a direct result of the policies the Government have been adhering to.
Registered unemployment fell on average by 6,000 in 1988. This downward trend is expected to accelerate to an average fall of 10,000 this year. Unemployment remains, however, at an unacceptably high level. It is the Government's vowed intention to bring it down as rapidly as possible by increasing employment opportunities.
In this regard I would remind Members of the House of the package of measures announced last September designed to stimulate employment and help the disadvantaged. These measures will work in two ways to help the unemployed. The PRSI exemption scheme, increased employment incentive scheme allowances, and increased enterprise allowances will encourage the creation of permanent private sector employment. The number of places on training schemes and on direct employment programmes have been increased by over 1,300 places and the attractiveness of these schemes has also been enhanced.
European interest rates have increased sharply this year and Irish interest rates had to move up in line with them. Recently the weakness of sterling has put further upward pressure on Irish interest rates. Despite the interest rate increases this year we should not forget that Irish rates have fallen dramatically, relative to rates abroad since March 1987. The differential between key Irish and UK interest rates has improved by up to 6.5 percentage points since 31 March 1987. During this period the differential with German rates has also improved, by about 5.5 percentage points. This dramatic improvement in our competitive position is a reflection of the better management of the Irish economy during the period.
One of the biggest problems facing the Government since 1987 has been the size and rate of growth of the national debt. In the Programme for National Recovery we set ourselves the target of stabilising the national debt-GNP ratio by 1990. This we achieved in 1988 when the debt-GNP ratio fell marginally from 131.4 per cent of GNP to 131 per cent of GNP. The medium-term target, as outlined in the National Development Plan, is to reduce the national debt to 120 per cent of GNP by 1993. This target, too, looks like being comfortably met ahead of schedule. The emerging end-1989 national debt-GNP ratio is set to produce a very substantial reduction on the end-1988 ratio of 131 per cent. Continuing the downward trend in the debt ratio remains central to Government policy as it is one of the keys to releasing scarce resources from debt servicing to more productive purposes. To further minimise the cost of servicing debt, the Taoiseach has recently announced that a national debt office is to be established and legislation setting up the office will be introduced in the next Dáil session.
This year has seen a continued improvement in the public finances. It is now very apparent that the budgetary outturn for 1989 will be much better than was envisaged at budget time. The trends reflected in the end-September Exchequer returns indicated that the level of borrowing by the Exchequer this year would probably be of the order of 3.5 per cent of GNP, as against the budget estimate of 5.3 per cent. Developments since then suggest that borrowing could be even lower than this, possibly around 3 per cent of GNP. This will mean that the underlying Exchequer borrowing will have been reduced to less than one-quarter of its 1986 level in the course of three years. This ranks as a truly major turnaround in the public finances.
The continued disciplined control of public expenditure is ensuring that non-capital supply services expenditure this year will be broadly in line with the budget target. There will in fact be significant savings in the major area of current spending — debt-servicing costs borne by the central fund. On the capital side, Exchequer borrowing for capital purposes will be lower than anticipated because of higher capital receipts.
However, the main contribution to the strong budgetary performance this year is clearly coming from the buoyancy of tax revenue. This reflects in particular the much stronger upturn in the economy, in both investment and consumption, than had been predicted. Consumer expenditure has boosted indirect tax receipts. Other tax headings have also performed well. Apart from the impact of stronger economic growth, revenue receipts are continuing to benefit from the much improved régime of tax collection and enforcement now in place following the measures taken over the past couple of years.
As Senators are aware, the 1990 Abridged Estimates and public capital programme were published a month ago. The expenditure allocations contained in these documents, of course, deal only with part of the Government's overall budget strategy for 1990.
We must await the Minister for Finance's Financial Statement early in the new year before we see the full budgetary picture. The Government's initiative in publishing spending Estimates some months before the beginning of the financial year ensures that there will be informed public debate both in the Houses of the Oireachtas and elsewhere on the general thrust of spending policy. The procedure followed in settling the 1990 Estimates was the same as that used in the 1988 and 1989 Estimates. The expenditure review process was used successfully once again in the early summer. This was followed up by an in-depth consideration by the Government of the Estimate for each Government Department during October.
What the published allocations show is that the Government have set expenditure at a level consistent with continuing downward pressure on the 1990 Exchequer borrowing requirement while, at the same time, making additional resources available in selected priority areas.
Exchequer funded net non-capital supply services show an increase of just 0.4 per cent on the 1989 post-budget Estimate, while overall Exchequer funded non-capital and capital spending is up just 1 per cent on the corresponding 1989 figures. This level of increase is considerably below the projected inflation rate for 1990 of about 4 per cent. Within this low level of overall increase we have directed additional resources to the health sector and to the security sector and have modestly boosted the Exchequer-funded public capital programme.
Much play has been made of the fact that the amount made available for social welfare next year is some £100 million less than the 1989 budget provision. I want to emphasise to the House that in settling the 1990 Estimate for Social Welfare no measures were adopted which would affect entitlement to or levels of payment in social welfare schemes. The reduction in the Estimate simply reflects the fact that PRSI income is expected to be much more buoyant next year and the Government's decision to amalgamate the occupational injuries and redundancy and employers' insolvency funds with the social insurance fund. I might add that the 1990 published figures for social welfare do not include anything for budget day improvements which the Minister for Finance will make next year.
The expenditure allocations for 1990 also reflect the impact of the Community Structural Funds. As Senators know, the Community has made a commitment of £2,860 million to Ireland over the 1989-1993 period. Aid from Community initiatives yet to be announced should bring the overall assistance total to over £3 billion.
The Community commitment is set out in the recently published Community Support Framework. It sets out both the levels of assistance to be provided and the sectors to which it will be channelled. The Community Support Framework will be followed up by a series of operational programmes. These will set out in more detail the particular measures which will be implemented in each sector. They are currently under discussion with the Commission and some of them will be finalised shortly, with the remainder being agreed early in 1990. Like the Community Support Framework, the operational programmes will also be published when they have been adopted.
Ireland's assistance from the Structural Funds in 1990 will be £539 million. In addition, some £18 million of commitments from the Social Fund in 1989 will be carried forward to 1990, giving total assistance of £557 million. This represents an increase of over 20 per cent on 1989 which itself showed a significant increase over 1988, when commitments were £361 million. The 1990 figure therefore shows an increase, in nominal terms, of 54 per cent on the pre-1989 position.
The turnaround in our economic fortunes over the last few years has been remarkable. We have restored confidence in the Irish economy both at home and abroad. We have endeavoured to reduce the constraint on economic progress imposed by high debt and its associated debt-service costs through strict control of the public finances and that is continuing into 1990. We have achieved and maintained a low rate of domestic inflation to the benefit of our international competitiveness and we have commenced a significant reform of the taxation system so as to stimulate growth and so to promote employment and equity.
This economic strategy was first set out in the Programme for National Recovery in 1987. It was reiterated in the National Development Plan and indeed has been further articulated in the Programme for Government in the National Interest 1989-1993. The strategy we have pursued since 1987 is evidently the right one and that is the reason it has been adhered to consistently. It is the only way in which sustained growth and increased employment can be achieved.
I commend the Appropriation Bill to the Seanad.