I asked the House to watch with vigilance the steady growth of the charge on the Central Fund to service the public debt, which has risen from £31 million in 1961 to £64.4 million in the current year. There is another thing the House ought to watch with vigilant care, that is, the balance of payments. It fluctuates. Sometimes it assumes menacing proportions and produces a multiplicity of Budgets in one financial year, a contraction of credit and all the hardships which our people have been called upon to bear in the past two years. Sometimes the balance of payments appears to improve. When it does, nobody asks himself: What is the source of the improvement? It is frequently the influx of foreign capital for the purchase of this country, larger and larger lumps of this country. That in itself is a very doubtful social desirability.
Without going into that large question of whether we should sell the country piecemeal to those who want to buy it, whether we should suffer them to conquer us with cheque-book where their fathers and grandfathers failed to conquer us with fire and sword, there is a more mundane aspect of it. It is that every million that comes in means a permanent charge on the future balance of payments of £70,000 a year and that charge is permanent because the purpose of investing the money here is to get the seven per cent on it which we have been foolish enough to allow many of these speculators to secure after their own Government had forbidden them to make that kind of investment in their own country.
I listened with interest to the tail-end of the discussion by the Minister for Finance on Telefís Éireann on the question of what was a Budget. In the course of that discussion, he said something that I thought was very true. He said indirect taxation is, of course, a means of shifting the burden from the rich to the poor. I could scarcely believe my ears when I heard him say it when I thought of the fact that he was a Minister of the Government responsible for the turnover tax, a Minister of the Government responsible for taxing beer, tobacco, in effect, bread, the new wholesale tax. Have we all become converts to the taxation principle that it is good to shift the burden from the shoulders of the well-to-do to the poor? It is certainly easy. It is a handy way to raise revenue but quite apart from its injustice, it brings in its wake infallibly, inevitably and inescapably the spiral of inflation. Inflation is the cruellest thief the world has ever known because it is the thief that robs the poor but can never get its hands in the pockets of the rich.
I must say this. There never was a Budget in my recollection which was heralded by such a multitude, such a spawn of green and white papers. I have the Report on Full Employment and I have the Review of 1966 and Outlook for 1967. I have the Report on the Review on Industrial Progress. I have the Report on Economic Planning and to crown it all I have the Comments of the Department of Finance Report, the Review of 1966 and the Outlook for 1967. We have come full circle. Not content with what was published in the way of White Papers, they have started to publish White Papers on one another's White Papers. Here they all are. With a diligence which I think reflects credit upon me, I have waded my way through them. Does the Minister believe the Report on Full Employment? I want to say that that is tripe and cowheel and I am astonished at the names of some of the men who signed it.
There is a strange echo in this volume. I wonder if it has escaped others who have read it? It is Table III. They are telling us all the things we have to do on the road to full employment. On page 27, you will find Table III. The numbers at work in 1961 are recorded as 1,053,000; the numbers at work in 1966 are recorded as 1,044,000. That is an interesting figure. There are 9,000 fewer people at work today than there were in 1961. Now we come to an interesting echo. Projections are made. At this stage of the publication we are talking about projections but later on they become bench-marks but I will deal with that in a moment. Then there is a projection made to 1976 on this golden road to full employment and we are told that in 1976 we will have 1,142,000, 100,000 new jobs. Do they not think there ought to be some little acknowledgment under this noble title "Report on Full Employment" in brackets "Clerys Restaurant, 1956". That would complete the document and it would give us an indication of the value we ought to set upon it.
Now I want to come to the other White Papers to which we are indebted. The first is the Review of 1966 and Outlook for 1967 and here is a classic on page 21. I am sorry if I must detain the House a little but these papers cost a lot of money to produce and they are therefore presumably matters we ought to discuss here in the House. I quote:
Before discussing the economic outlook for 1967, it is necessary to comment on the changed presentation of the economic outlook in this Report as compared with that given for 1966 in last year's Progress Report on the Programme for Economic Expansion.
We have now dropped all the talk about it being a Report on the Programme for Economic Expansion for the simple reason that the Programme for Economic Expansion has ceased to expand. It has now just become a Review of 1966 and Outlook for 1967. I resume my quotation:
In assessing the prospects for 1966, a national accounts projection of the economy was given on the basis of certain highly restrictive assumptions. The main assumptions were as follows:
(i) the maintenance of existing budgetary policies;
(ii) a total increase in wages, salaries, etc., in the non-agricultural sector of 5 per cent, comprising an increase in average earnings of 3 per cent to cover increases in basic wage and salary rates and the cost of any additional fringe benefits or of shorter working hours, 1 per cent for a rise in employment and 1 per cent for an increase in aggregate incomes arising from the movement of workers from lower paid to higher paid employment;
(iii) an average rise in profits, professional earnings, rents, etc., of 5 per cent;
(iv) no widespread disruption of the growth of output by industrial unrest.
Listen to this classic, paragraph 52:
On the basis of these assumptions, it was projected, inter alia, that the growth rate would be 3¾ per cent. It is important to stress, however, that this projected growth rate depended on the realisation of the assumptions underlying the projection. In fact, as is clear from the Review of 1966, preceding, none of the above assumptions was realised. The actual growth rate of the economy turned out to be much lower than 3¾ per cent.
The accuracy of any prediction is very much dependent on the realisation of the assumption upon which it is made. Having laid down the proposition that the document was based on four assumptions the next statement is that none of these assumptions were correct and that the validity of the whole exercise proved false.
Now we can turn to No. 2, the NIEC Report on Review of Industrial Progress, 1966. There is an interesting paragraph on page 9 which refers to the outlook for 1967 and reads as follows:
To consider the outlook for 1967 in detail, it was obviously necessary to devise a set of reasonable working assumptions. Those put to industry in October, 1966, as a basis for the forecasts were—
(i) a resumption of growth in the British economy in 1967;
(ii) no decline in the relative competiveness of Irish industry vis-á-vis its main competitors;
(iii) no change in prices in 1967 as compared with the fourth quarter of 1966;
(iv) a growth in 1967 of some three per cent in GNP.
The projections for 1967 must accordingly, be seen in the context of these assumptions and of the continuation of the ten per cent tariff cuts under the Anglo-Irish Free Trade Area Agreement.
Here again, observe that we are given four basic assumptions. The only experience we have is that on the previous occasion when four such assumptions were provided they all turned out to be wrong. But everybody proceeds on exactly the same basis and a further four assumptions are given. This document is of peculiar interest because it is signed by a number of respectable gentlemen who offer the advice on these given assumptions. Its introduction is signed by Mr. T.K. Whitaker. Mr. Whitaker, of course, on this occasion is wearing his NIEC hat but he doffs his NIEC hat and hurries back to the Department of Finance and when he gets back to the Department, certain of the assumptions and conclusions which he has accepted as valid in the NIEC hat he rejects when he assumes his Department of Finance hat.
Now we come to the third report, the NIEC Report on Economic Planning. This is signed by Mr. Whitaker who is the Chairman of the NIEC and he sets out the background of the Report on economic planning. He says:
During 1964, two sets of discussions were held between officers in the main economic departments and representatives of managements and the workers in the industrial sector. The objectives of the first set of discussions were to agree on the 1970 targets for individual industries, to clarify the assumptions on which they were based and to discover the problems which would be posed, and the obstacles which would be encountered, as attempts were made to achieve the targets. The results of these discussions were published in November, 1964, in our Report on Results of Discussions with Industry on the Second Programme Targets (Paper 7987). In the second set of discussions in the autumn of last year, the progress of each industry during 1960-63 was reviewed and attempts made to estimate the outcome for 1964 and to forecast the prospects for 1965. The results were summarised in our Report on Review of Industrial Progress, 1964, (Paper 8109), published in March, 1965.
Neither round of discussions was completely successful—perhaps not surprisingly. The fault lay not so much in any major deficiency in the procedures which were followed as in the fact that many of those engaged in the processes of economic planning were not fully aware of its nature, aims and methods. This lack of full awareness carried with it the danger that effective action will not be taken to achieve the agreed targets for 1970. We have accordingly prepared this report which attempts to describe the meaning of economic planning and to define the relative roles of government departments and agencies, managements and workers in the planning process.
Now, as I understand it, we have been told by the previous Taoiseach, by the present Taoiseach and the Minister for Finance, that planning was proceeding in the most energetic way and that we had two plans, the First Programme for Economic Expansion and the Second Programme for Economic Expansion. Now, however, we are told in 1967 by Mr. Whitaker that nobody knew what the hell they were doing, with this disastrous result that he now has had to publish a booklet in order to tell people what they will have to do if they hope to engage in any successful planning.
That does not end this astonishing documentation because we have the NIEC "Comments on Department of Finance Report: Review of 1966 and Outlook for 1967". This is a most interesting document because this shows that the NIEC is presided over by Dr. Whitaker and he has now produced and published comments on the Department of Finance Report. We picture Dr. Whitaker clapping on his NIEC hat, jumping on to his bicycle and dashing up to the council's offices to make a report on himself as Secretary of the Department of Finance, and then clapping on his Department of Finance hat and answering the NIEC and then correspondence being opened between himself and himself ad infinitum.
Wait until you hear the contents of this document. It is getting deeper and deeper. When I read paragraph 6, I am reminded of Teilhard du Chardin who when referring to original sin started talking about the "noosphere". We now find the same technique being used in Government publications in regard to the introduction of new words, what I can only describe as the "noo-sphere". For the first time we have a new term, it is not a prophecy or a plan, but a bench-mark. Paragraph 6 says:
The bench-mark projection assumed no change in budgetary policies.
Listen to this, because this is beyond praise. Dr. Whitaker is now in his NIEC hat and he says that the bench-mark projection assumed no change in budgetary policy and he goes on to say:
In the budget which was introduced on 9 March, 1966, income tax and the duties on petrol, tobacco, beer, spirits and motor vehicles were increased.
The fantastic part is that in his NIEC hat, he was assuming there would be no change in budgetary policy and then up on his bicycle and back he pedals to the Department of Finance and radically changes budgetary policies. This is one of the most distinguished public servants not only in this State —and I am saying this intending no disrespect—but in Europe. He preserves the absolute confidence of his Minister. He springs on to his bicycle again and cycles up to the NIEC office and they proceed with their investigations and projections on the assumption that there is going to be no change in budgetary policy which he has just settled with the Minister for Finance in his Department of Finance hat. Such is the skill and immense esteem in which he is held.
This body included such distinguished names as Dr. F.H. Boland, Mr. Haughey—not the Minister—Mr. Pat Kelly, Mr. Fintan Kennedy, Mr. James Larkin, Mr. John Conroy, Mr. J.C.B. McCarthy, Mr. Charles McCarthy, Mr. W.J. Fitzpatrick, Mr. Macgougan, Mr. Dominick Murphy, Mr. J.C. O'Connor, Dr. W.J.L. Ryan, Mr. James Stacey, Mr. Ruaidhri Roberts and Mr. Donal Nevin. These attended under the chairmanship of Dr. Whitaker who was asked to proceed on the assumption that there would be no change in the Budget proposals, he just having agreed with his own Minister to increase the duties on petrol, tobacco, beer and spirits and increase income tax in order to achieve a budgetary balance in 196667. The fruits of these deliberations are presented to us in a whole series of booklets which are now to be printed and distributed in published form.
Young Deputy Molloy takes these things home, wraps a wet towel round his head and studies them by candlelight to imbibe and absorb them. The poor fellow does it in the discharge of his public duties and in the belief that it is gospel and that it is almost heresy to question the contents of these wonderful, beautiful publications. That is only the beginning of it. The dilemma that Dr. Whitaker has got himself into is beyond description. Mark you, to the elderly Members here, reference to a distinguished public servant by name in the House comes as a shock. We instinctively recoil against it. I recoil against it. I recollect the first time the Grey Book was published and Dr. Whitaker was asked to sign it. I remember saying to the then Minister for Finance, Dr. Ryan; "You are doing a very wrong thing. You are breaking through the well-established anonymity of civil servants and we shall find ourselves instead of attacking you as Minister for Finance, animadverting on Dr. Whitaker who cannot answer." It is a most distressing situation for me because I honestly hold Dr. Whitaker in the highest esteem as a distinguished public servant and I recoil against mentioning his name here in the knowledge that he cannot answer. But what can I do while this deplorable system obtains?
I recollect that a highly respected officer in my Department when I became Minister committed the indiscretion of giving a Press interview and although I was a new Minister and he was an old and established civil servant, I felt it incumbent on me to send for him and say: "You have offended against a most sacred rule in the Civil Service in that you have abandoned your anonymity and you are now liable to attack and you cannot answer." I am now in the deplorable position that I have to speak of Dr. Whitaker, something I would much prefer not to do when he, with his incisive mind, is not here to comment on the observations I conceive it to be my duty to make.
Paragraph 7 of this document says the bench-mark projection also assumed the continuation of the existing money policies.