Richard Bruton
Question:47 Mr. R. Bruton asked the Minister for Education the reason for the rapid growth in unqualified school-leavers in the last ESRI survey.
Written Answers. - Unqualified School-Leavers.
The annual survey of school-leavers from second level schools in 1990-91 was carried out for the Department of Enterprise and Employment. The data in the report of the survey is based on an analysis of a sample of some 2,200 school-leavers out of a total of almost 67,000.
In the sample studied 103 leavers left the education system in 1990/91 without a formal qualification. Using this number it was estimated that the total number of unqualified leavers was 5,200. This estimate is subject to sampling error. The corresponding numbers in 1989-90 were 88 and 3,600 respectively.
As stated in the commentary to the survey, caution is needed in interpreting some of the results especially those relating to school-leavers without any formal qualifications as the numbers in the sample sub-group in this category are relatively small. Also the possibility of random fluctuations in the numbers of unqualified leavers is greater than for qualified leavers due to the statistical methodology used to weight sample results. Consequently the increase in the number of unqualified leavers between 1989-90 and 1990-91 may not be statistically significant. Indeed it has been calculated that, using sample numbers of 103 and 88, there is at least a one in three probability that the difference of 1,600 occurring in the estimated numbers of unqualified leavers between 1989/90 and 1990-91 is due to random sampling fluctuation.
It would be necessary to wait the findings of the survey of school-leavers in 1991-92 carried out earlier this year to see if the results for 1990-91 were exceptional or representative of a trend.