I propose to take Questions Nos. 25, 27 and 100 together.
I have already notified local authorities of their rate support grant allocations for the current year; these were determined on the basis that each authority's allocation would be increased by 2.5 per cent. A report by the Institute of Fiscal Studies was commissioned in 1991 specifically to look into the distribution of the rate support grant. It outlined equalisation models, based on various assumptions, in an effort to make it possible to compare the effects of a range of possible indicators for the distribution of the grant by reference to needs and resources. The report is based on the use of statistical techniques and their application to selected criteria.
A number of grant distribution options were examined in the study, and each of these suggests significant redistribution of rate support grant between authorities — some would stand to gain and others to lose significantly. Most local authorities made observations on the report's findings, some favouring implementation of the recommendations in one form or another, and others wholly opposing them. This polarisation of views is directly related to the predicted outcome of a redistribution of grant allocations on the basis of the options outlined in the report.
Many authorities suggested that the report's findings, which were based on analysis of the 1991 spending estimates only, needed to be tested on more than one year's spending to establish more conclusive indications of the extent of redistribution that might arise. I accepted this view and asked my Department to undertake a further analysis of the distribution criteria by reference to the 1993 local authority estimates. The results of this further analysis suggest that the distribution criteria outlined in the report would lead to relatively unstable grant allocations from year to year, a factor which could give rise to further difficulty.
The present system of rate support grant allocations has evolved over a period of some 15 years. Adjustments of the system made over the years have generally been financially neutral for the local authorities. Where increased overall allocations for the grant have been made available in the Estimates for a particular year, the additional funds have generally been allocated on a pro-rata basis among the local authorities.
Any proposals for a new distribution system must take realistic account of the present allocations so as to ensure that no local authority suffers unnecessarily. Any new basis of allocation must also take account of the particular difficulties experienced by some local authorities. Where imbalances may exist under existing arrangements, they did not come about overnight and it would be imprudent to try to solve them otherwise than on a phased basis, possibly over a number of years. For these and other reasons, I am convinced that redistribution of the kind indicated by the IFS findings is inappropriate in present circumstances. I intend, however, to review the position on the basis of the most up-to-date information available to my Department before the 1995 allocations come to be made.