The ESRI report was commissioned by my Department in partnership with the European Commission as part of the mid-term review of the Community Support Framework. The ESRI estimated that the effect of the Structural Fund interventions on employment in the economy would peak at in excess of 30,000 over the latter years of the current spending round, reflecting the temporary impact of expenditure element of the CSF on the level of demand in the economy. The ESRI estimated that the long-run impact of the CSF would be to raise the level of employment in the economy permanently by about 5,000. This reflects the effect of the Structural Funds in enhancing the supply capacity of the economy.
These estimates are based on analysis carried out by the ESRI using the institute's medium-term model of the Irish economy. It is considered that model based assessments of the impact of the CSF are best equipped to capture the complex interaction of econominc factors affected by investments under the CSF. However, as is well known economic forecasts — particularly long-range economic forecasts — must be treated with caution.
