The EPA’s latest GHG emissions projections highlight the challenge Ireland faces in meeting its highly ambitious climate objectives and legally-binding emissions targets. While the EPA’s projections do show that emissions are expected to decrease in almost all sectors over the next two decades, it is clear that we still have considerable work to do.
The recent EPA report has projected that Ireland is on course to reduce emissions by 29% by 2030 under its ‘With Additional Measures’ scenario. In relation to the EPA projections I should point out that they do not fully reflect the pathway set out in the 2023 Climate Action Plan (CAP23), as sufficient data is not yet available to allow all actions in CAP23 to be modelled. Policies and measures need to meet strict criteria regarding detail for inclusion in the EPA‘s 'With Additional Measures’ scenario. The EPA’s own Projections Report acknowledges that if all of the unmodelled policies and measures in CAP23 and the, as yet, unallocated emissions savings are included the reduction in emissions could equate to 42% by 2030. Further detail on these will be provided through annual updates of the Climate Action Plan.
With these additions, and continuing increased climate ambition in our forthcoming annual national Climate Action Plans, we are setting a pathway to reduce overall emissions by 51% by 2030 and to reach net-zero emissions by no later than 2050.
Under the Climate Action and Low Carbon Development (Amendment) Act 2021, our Climate Action Plans must specify the measures that will be required to meet our current carbon budget.
Under the Act, Ireland is also legally required to update its Climate Action Plan on an annual basis, allowing for regular and frequent opportunities to improve, refine and strengthen the Plan’s effectiveness by integrating new policies and learning, while responding to changes in our emissions profile.
The annual update of the Plan also acts as a review and monitoring mechanism, and an opportunity to re-adjust or refocus actions to ensure targets are achieved, while also considering the strengthening of delivery structures.
Work has already commenced in the Department of Environment, Climate and Communications on Climate Action Plan 2024 and it is clear from the EPA projections that we must continue to act with increased scale and ambition in our response to the climate crisis, fully involving other Departments across government and key external stakeholders.
It is expected that CAP24 will be published in Q4 2023. It will build upon last year's Plan, further developing and implementing the key policies and measures required to meet our climate ambition, while also taking account of progress made and responding to areas where accelerated action or alternative pathways must be considered.
