I was saying before the interruption of the budget debate that the leader writer seemed to be under the impression that Fianna Fáil were not interested enough to continue with the debate. I hope his colleagues will inform him of our interest.
The Minister for Industry and Commerce referred to a speech made by Deputy Colley at the opening of the debate on the budget. The debate, he said, had not yet been published. We had not yet got the Official Report. However, he quoted from the unrevised version and said that Deputy Colley had done a disservice to the country by implying that it was more expensive to set up an industry in this country than in the United States. It is very easy to take a section from a speech out of context. I have no doubt that if the rate of inflation continues at 25 per cent per annum approximately, and the movement seems to be up although I hope it goes down as a result of measures in the budget, as compared with the rate of 8 per cent in the United States, what Deputy Colley said will become true in a very short period of time and any industrialist comparing the rates of inflation is bound to be hesitant before setting up an industry here unless he is certain that we have grappled with inflation.
The people want a strong Government. They have shown in the past that when they are asked to tighten their belts and to make sacrifices they will do so. News commentators have compared this budget with the hair shirt Fianna Fáil budgets. The fact is that when Fianna Fáil acted harshly in order to get the economy right it had its reward in that it retained the confidence of the people. For two periods of 16 years Fianna Fáil were continuously in office. There was a short interruption. After a period of three years of the first Coalition Government Fianna Fáil were returned again. Then there was the second Coalition Government and within a short period that Coalition went out of office. The first Coalition were elected because the Fianna Fáil Government had to take rigorous measures in order to put the economy right. At that time the people did not realise the necessity for the measures. However, after the second period of Coalition Government the people got the message correctly and Fianna Fáil were in office for 16 years. I have been told by a person who up to recently was a Government supporter that next time Fianna Fáil will be in for 32 years because of the way the Government are behaving. The message must be getting through to Members of the Government because already the issue of whether we should break the link with sterling is being floated by certain prominent members of the Labour Party. Perhaps this is the breaking of the link with Fine Gael because the message is getting through that the people are not satisfied with the performance.
The Minister for Industry and Commerce quoted figures for unemployment as compared with the figures for other countries. I do not want the Ceann Comhairle to think that when I use this quotation I am calling the Minister a liar. There is an expression I am very fond of and often quote, namely, "Figures cannot lie but liars can figure." You can do a lot of things with figures. I have an example here of what can be done with figures.
I have a copy here of a report of the Committee on Social Affairs and Employment of the European Parliament. It gives the figures country by country and the definition of "young" is under 25 years of age. It gives the figures for the number of young people unemployed for the month of November in Belgium, for September in France, for September in Germany and so on. The figure it gives for Ireland is for the under 18 age group. The figure of unemployment in the under 18 age group from 1973 until 1974 increased by 125 per cent. The figure for the United Kingdom was given as 13 per cent.
I put down the following question on 17th June:
To ask the Taoiseach the percentage increase in unemployment in the under 25 age group for the year 1974 in comparison with 1973; and how this figure compares with the corresponding figure in the United Kingdom.
The Parliamentary Secretary to the Taoiseach replied:
An analysis by age group of the numbers on the live register is available at one date each year only and relates to males resident in incorporated towns. Between 14th September, 1973 and 25th October, 1974 the number of males under 25 years, resident in incorporated towns, on the live register rose from 3,830 to 5,571—an increase of 45.5 per cent. The percentage increase in unemployed males in Great Britain between July, 1973 and July, 1974, the only date available, was 14 per cent.
There was use of different figures from those which were available. I had in my possession the answer to the question I was asking and put down the question in the public interest. The answer I got was very different. I decided not to raise the matter on the Adjournment but I have mentioned it here.
There is another example in relation to unemployment figures which the Minister for Industry and Commerce quoted for European countries. I interrupted the Minister to ask him was it not a fact that the compilation of the figures varied from country to country. The Minister agreed. I can give an example again from this European report on social affairs. Recent figures of overall unemployment in the Community were also made available by the member states. Population criteria differ from one state to another. In some the entire working population is used as a statistical basis where as in others, like France, only actual employees are counted and they exclude whole groups like the armed forces. That makes it difficult to compare figures. In some instances the percentage is calculated on the basis of working population, in others on the basis of the total number of employees, in others on the basis of the membership of the unemployment insurance fund while, in others, the whole population is taken into consideration. With all these different bases, it can suit us to say our figures are a great deal better than they are in other countries, but we have to know how the comparison is made.
The Minister for Industry and Commerce said we were a rotten Opposition; I think that remark was as a result of something said on this side. I agree that we are not perhaps as effective in Opposition as we were in Government. The Government were a long time in Opposition and very few of their members had any experience of Government before this. They may be less, shall I say, responsible in their contributions than our party who spent many years in Government and know the problems of Government. I would say they are a rotten Government. I may be accused of arrogance now when I say that the proper place for us is on the other side of this House. We should really swop places. We were far better and more effective in Government than the present Government were in Opposition.
I have been asked frequently what would I do in such and such a case. Last January the advice given by our spokesman on Finance, Deputy Colley, was taken by the Minister for Finance in his budget, but unfortunately six months too late, and so the advice had lost some of its effectiveness. We gave advice in the case of the green £ and it was not taken until the situation had deteriorated almost beyond redemption.
I believe the Government are doing too little. They are not acting as decisively as they should. If people understand the situation they will rise to the situation. I have a feeling we will have a general election during the recess. Only the Taoiseach knows whether or not we will have a general election, despite the gossip between the rank and file. I believe this budget is an indication that the Taoiseach is preparing to call for a general election before the situation deteriorates more; it would be better to go earlier than later, and cut the losses, as it were.
I am worried that our creditability abroad is rapidly deteriorating. Our creditworthiness is being questioned. It is all very well to say that we should not talk like this, but these are the facts. If one goes to a bank to borrow one is asked all sorts of questions about one's creditworthiness. The Government, when borrowing, have to go through the same procedure. They have to prove their ability to repay the loan. I hope, when we get back into office, that we do not discover our assets have been put in pawn to outside interests. The Government must be warned about this. Hitherto agreements made by one Government were honoured by the next Government. That situation has changed in relation to the taxfree holiday where mining is concerned. We must be very careful not to pledge our natural resources to outside interests. A future Government might find themselves in a very embarrassing situation. We must be very, very careful. If the Minister for Finance is not successful in getting the money he needs to meet commitments I can see the dissolution of the Government coming. I can see the Labour Party preparing to break with the Fine Gael party.
This suggestion of breaking the link with sterling may be a device to attract money into the country. It is a device designed to attract the speculator and speculation may have been responsible for a certain inflow of funds but the funds will not stay long unless there is evidence of a positive policy and unless there is confidence. That will not come until the rate of inflation is cut. It is in the interests of the trade unions to ensure wage agreements which will keep a balance because, if workers continue to lose their jobs they will not just blame the Government, they will blame the trade union leaders. Trade unionists are not any different from other sections of the community.
They also realise that their jobs are the most important things they possess. If their trade union leaders take a high-handed attitude and say: "No. We will not reduce our wage demands. We do not agree with you that high wages are the main cause of inflation", the working people will say: "Where are you leading us to?" There may be an upheaval in the trade union movement at leadership level. The Government should say they are prepared to make it mandatory that wage increases can only reach a certain level. The Labour Government in England were forced to do it. It was anathema to them. People argue that if a Conservative Government did it there would be a revolution but the Labour Party could do it and get away with it.
The Labour Party should use their influence with the unions, if they have any, and tell them they must agree to wage restraints. Many people are asking who is the Taoiseach. Is it John Carroll or Liam Cosgrave? Liam Cosgrave was elected Taoiseach and people want him to be the Taoiseach.