I move:
That a supplementary sum not exceeding £1,000,000 be granted to defray the charge which will come in course of payment during the year ending on the 31st day of December, 1991, for the salaries and expenses of the Office of the Minister for Agriculture and Food, including certain services administered by that Office, and of the Irish Land Commission, and for payment of certain grants, subsidies and sundry grants-in-aid.
As this is my first time in this House to introduce a Supplementary Estimate for my Department I propose to make some introductory remarks on the Common Agricultural Policy reform, the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade negotiations and the general economic situation before going on to speak on a selection of the subheads covered in the Supplementary Estimate.
There are two issues which have dominated all discussions on agriculture over the past year and these are the Common Agricultural Policy reform negotiations and the Uruguay Round of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade.
In so far as the Common Agricultural Policy reform negotiations are concerned, the details of the Commission's proposals have already been outlined on a number of occasions in this House and I do not propose to go into them again. I have also made it clear that I accept that it is necessary to modify some of the mechanisms of the support arrangements so as to tackle underlying market imbalances in some sectors and to sustain farmer incomes, but I do have very serious difficulties with the way the Commission is proposing to achieve those objectives.
The main thrust of the Commission proposals is to partially switch supports away from the traditional approach of guaranteed prices to one with greater emphasis on direct payments. In my view, the proposals go much too far and too fast. I am not happy either with the modalities and scope of the compensatory elements of the proposals. They will have to be significantly adapted if they are to be acceptable to me. I also have major problems in relation to the production control elements of the proposals and in particular the proposed milk quota cuts.
The Agricultural Council began detailed negotiations on the Commission's proposals at the November Council. These were continued at the Council over the past two days. The negotiations will resume under the Portuguese Presidency in the New Year.
These negotiations will be long and difficult. Farmers and all associated with the agri-food sector can be assured that I am determined to secure the most favourable possible result for Irish agriculture. My aim in these negotiations is to ensure that the reformed Common Agricultural Policy continues to adequately support market prices and that the main element of producers' incomes continues to be derived from the market. I am insisting that the compensatory measures cater for our needs, that they are permanent and sustained by durable and adequate Community financial resources. This matter of financing is a precondition to any agreement on reform and I have made this very clear to my colleagues in the Council and to Commissioner MacSharry. It is essential that the compensatory payments fall into the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade "green box" of subsidies which are to be exempted from General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade discipline. The needs of economies such as our own with its high dependence on agriculture must be recognised in the reforms. This is an essential point in our position.
In reality the Common Agricultural Policy reform discussions are very much in their infancy. There is a long hard road ahead but I am prepared to go every step of the way to ensure a fair deal for Irish agriculture.
It is expected that the Uruguay Round of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade negotiations should conclude this year or early next year. Agreement was not reached last year because of differences mainly between the US and the EC on a number of issues including agriculture. Negotiations at technical level throughout the year have clarified some aspects but the major political matters are still unresolved. The recent EC/US high level contacts have narrowed the differences on some aspects. The US now seem willing to consider levels of reductions which are more in line with the EC position. However, significant differences remain on aspects such as the choice of base year, modalities for tariffication, minimum access, the treatment of direct aids, export supports and rebalancing. Negotiations are continuing between both parties to see if some accommodation can be achieved on these as well as on the more fundamental question of the level of reductions to be made.
My priorities in the negotiations are to ensure that any commitments are realistic, coherent and balanced so that the supports provided by the Common Agricultural Policy are not undermined. I want to ensure that the Community's conditions for the acceptance of tariffication are adhered to so that adequate Community preference can be maintained.
On export refunds, I cannot accept restrictions which are not coherent with internal support or protection mechanisms or which would limit the Community's ability to take part in the anticipated expansion of world trade following the end of the round. I will also be seeking to ensure that credit is obtained for reform measures taken since 1986. It is also vitally important to me to ensure that the various compensatory mechanisms which may flow from Common Agricultural Policy reform are contained in the "green box" of support policies to be continued without further discipline.
It is in all our interests to conclude an agreement and so avoid costly and damaging trade wars. However, it cannot be an agreement at any cost. The Community has made a reasonable and balanced offer. It is also undertaking the most fundamental reform of its internal support policies to date. I cannot accept that the Community alone should bear the burden of reforms. Other countries have also contributed to world trade problems and all parties must bear their share of the burden if global problems are to be resolved.
In summary, there is no doubt but that the Commission's Common Agricultural Policy reform proposals represent a definite shift from price income support. Neither can there be any doubt but that, compared to the present situation, these proposals, if adopted, would represent a loss for Irish farming and the agriculture industry.
It is also the case that the GATT negotiations would, if concluded on lines close to those now emerging, result in a substantial cut in Community support for agriculture. This would also, of course, mean losses, at least in the short to medium term, for the Irish agricultural sector.
In the context of the action which may be required after a GATT agreement, the Commission proposals could be seen as a factor which defines and limits the fall out for agriculture and the food industry. This would certainly be the case if many of our negotiating aims were achieved, but, even so, the overall result will inevitably involve some cost to the industry and the economy. What we are engaged in now is trying to create the basis of a viable and more market oriented industry while minimising the cost in the short term.
We can best achieve this by more gradual and less extreme price adjustments allied to production control; providing adequate and permanent compensation to include commercial farmers and with full recognition of the position of grass based extensive livestock producers; effective support mechanisms to maintain the new price levels; and assuring a guaranteed and permanent financial framework for the new regime.
It now seems likely that GNP will increase by about 0.5-1 per cent in 1991, although some estimates have it as high as 2 per cent. This compares quite favourably with growth in most other European countries and especially with the 2 per cent decline expected in the UK. The Central Bank projects a surplus in the balance of payments of around £879 million or roughly 3.75 per cent of GNP in 1991. Inflation was again very low by international standards during 1991 with the rate for the year as a whole being 3.1 per cent. An even lower rate of inflation is now being forecast for 1992.
Interest rates have again tended downwards during 1991. During the year the short term rate, which tends to govern interest rates in the retail banks, was reduced by two steps of 0.5 per cent to reach 10.25 per cent.
The agri-food sector continues to be of vital importance in the Irish economy, much greater proportionally than for the average EC Twelve. In 1990, agriculture accounted for 10.1 per cent of GDP, 14.8 per cent of employment and 14 per cent of exports. If goods and drinks are included, these account for about 19 per cent of employment and 23 per cent of exports.
The £1.1 million provided in this Supplementary Estimate is to cover the initial costs of the Tribunal of Inquiry into the Beef Processing Industry. The Estimate otherwise would have balanced out for the year. Deputies will see that Vote expenditure is up by £55 million compared to the original provision. This arose from extra expenditure on farm investment and intervention activity which is, of course, designed to support producer prices. This additional expenditure is mainly offset by increased EC intervention receipts.
I propose to focus my remarks on four subheads in particular. Before doing so, I would like to say a few words on the subject of headage payments in the disadvantaged areas. I am happy to tell the House that the number of such payments made will be well in line with previous years. Some £80 million in all will be paid in 1991. This is the highest amount ever paid on headage payments in Ireland. The balance will be paid early in the new year. In addition to the headage payments, which are confined to the disadvantaged areas, a further £185 million will be paid this year to farmers throughout the country under the cattle and sheep premium schemes which are fully funded by the EC. I am aware that the rules laid down by the EC for the operation of these schemes continue to cause difficulties for some farmers. Deputies have brought this to my attention through questions, particularly written questions. I have communicated with the Commission as to the possibility of having the rules amended for future years.
As indicated in the Taoiseach's speech of 24 May 1991 the expenses arising in the work of the Tribunal of Inquiry into the Beef Processing Industry were to be the subject of a Supplementary Estimate for my Department. As of now, it is not possible to give an accurate estimate of when the tribunal is likely to complete their work nor of the final outturn of costs. At this time the Supplementary Estimate for 1991 is in respect of initial startup costs of the tribunal and payments which have been made to date. There will, of course, be further costs arising in 1992. I do not propose to refer at this time to the work of the tribunal. As this House established this legal forum to examine these matters, let us allow the tribunal conduct their inquiries and make their report before any conclusions are drawn or debated.
As regards the financial costs and receipts of market intervention measures, Deputies will note that with the high level of intervention activity this year, expenditure in this area has increased from last year. Most of this increased expenditure will be financed by increased intervention receipts.
My Department recently completed, with the help of outside consultants, an information techonology strategy study which led to the production of a three to five year plan for further development of computerisation to support the business and broad objectives of the Department. The cost of this study accounts for the additional expenditure on the consultancy services — subhead A8. The plan envisages a major development in the computerisation of my Department. The major area to be tackled is the design and development of a cattle movement permit-headage system to support the work of ERAD and headage payments. It will be a major advance on the existing disease testing system in the district veterinary offices. Selection of outside consultants to work with Department staff on the project is nearing completion.
The second area to be developed is a client database. This will integrate scheme data; do away with duplication; provide a common registration point for all of the Department's clients; give greater control to analyse financial and other information and pave the way for the delivery of services in various parts of the country. The selection of a more powerful mainframe to support all these developments is being considered by my Department. The enhanced hardware will be installed in the new year.
Provision is being made for an additional £2.9 million under subhead L.1 on farm investment. This is to cover the cost of grant payments to farmers in respect of works undertaken under the various farm development schemes. The original provision under this heading was £45.6 million. The demand has been greater than expected and the indications are that expenditure this year will be in the region of £48.5 million. The increased demand for grant aid is a reflection of the high level of on-farm investment. It is estimated that this will exceed £100 million this year. Such a level of activity is an indication that despite the temporary difficulties they are facing, Irish farmers still have confidence in the future of the industry.
Much of this investment is in relation to the control of farmyard pollution. Judging by the response it is obvious that our farmers know their responsibilities and are taking steps to ensure that the environment is not damaged by off farm waste. This is a welcome development and one which I am glad to encourage. In general this type of investment does not produce an immediate economic return. It is important, therefore, that there is sufficient funding available to enable grants to be paid as soon as projects are completed. I am, therefore, seeking an additional £2.9 million for this purpose.
I urge the House to support this Supplementary Estimate.