Vol. 418 No. 9
8 Mr. Rabbitte asked the Minister for Labour if he will outline the implications for labour policy of the study Industrial Training in Ireland prepared for the Industrial Policy Review Group, especially the forecast that unemployment will worsen up to the mid-nineties and that emigration will accelerate after that; and if he will make a statement on the matter.
22 Mr. J. O'Keeffe asked the Minister for Labour if he will give details of the projected figures of the numbers unemployed for 1992, 1993 and 1994.
29 Mr. Durkan asked the Minister for Labour if he will outline his Department's projections in respect of unemployment from now to the year 2000; and if he will make a statement on the matter with particular reference to the proposed means of alleviating the problem.
I propose to take Questions numbers 8, 22 and 29 together.
Projections on employment and unemployment have been prepared by the Economic and Social Research Institute and the National Economic and Social Council. The recent report "Industrial Training in Ireland", commissioned by the Industrial Policy Review Group, also contains projections in this area.
Depending on assumptions about the level of migration flows, all these projections suggest that the labour force could increase by between 22,000 and 25,000 a year and, depending on the scale of net job creation, unemployment could also increase.
The present increase in unemployment can be traced to the increased inflow of new entrants into the labour force, arising from the exceptional population growth in the sixties when many emigrants and their families returned to Ireland and, more recently, the virtual elimination of net migration. The unemployment problem was compounded for a small open economy like Ireland by the downturn in world trade.
While unemployment has been growing for the reasons I mentioned, Labour Force Surveys have shown increases in employment. Since 1987, overall employment has increased by 41,000 and employment in the private non-agricultural sector by over 70,000.
Over the last five years a transformation of the economy was achieved on the basis of the consensus approach contained in the Programme for National Recovery and the Programme for Economic and Social Progress. The programmes involve maintaining the position of the Irish pound within the exchange rate mechanism, the restoration of order to the public finances and the achievement of a low inflation rate.
I am convinced that the present policies, endorsed by the EC, the OECD and reputable independent commentators are correct and their implementation cannot be relaxed. There is no viable alternative to the Programme for Economic and Social Progress. There are no soft options in this area nor are panic measures likely to produce long term solutions. At the same time, the Government will take whatever action is possible, within Exchequer parameters, to alleviate the problem. Two such initiatives are the job training scheme and the employment subsidy scheme.
The consensus approach to solving the unemployment problem will be strengthened by the work of the Oireachtas Joint Committee on Employment. The committee will have available to them the work of the National Economic and Social Council, the report of the Industrial Policy Review Group and the studies commissioned by the group, including the study on industrial training in Ireland.
The conclusion and recommendations of the study, Industrial Training in Ireland, will be taken into account in the White Paper on manpower policy which I intend to publish later this year.
Question No. 8 specificaly asks what are the implications for labour policy arising from the study on industrial training in Ireland. Can the Minister indicate whether he considers the projections of this report to be accurate? The Minister indicated that the NES and ESRI have also made studies. Does he consider these to be accurate? Apart from the Programme for Economic and Social Progress, the general policy outlined in it and the training programme, have the Government any proposals other than the Oireachtas committee, to deal with the fairly huge numbers that are expected to emigrate during this decade and the huge numbers who will be unemployed during this decade arising from the demographic conditions that exist in Ireland?
As indicated in the body of my reply, the social and economic policy of the Government is geared to create the conditions that will arise when an increase in the numbers employed take place. I outlined the demographic factors. These are subborn facts that have to be coped with. I also outlined the problems that arose from world trade, particularly recession of the UK and the US, as being factors also. There are some hopes of an upturn. However, if there is an uplift in the economies in the UK and the US we will inevitably get more people into employment to produce exports for those countries. I do not believe in getting into prophesy but the intellectuals, when I was growing up, were writing about the vanishing Irish. The direct opposite is true now, in that our population figures have increased considerably. I remember reading, and, of course, at that time was naive enough to pay heed to, intellectuals, but while becoming somewhat wiser as I got older, I was confronted with the problem of building schools for the increasing population in the late seventies and early eighties.
I had always marked down the Minister himself as an intellectual. I do not think he should be so dismissive of them.
Not guilty, m'Lord.
We are all intellectuals in our own way. The Minister indicated that the Government are concentrating on getting conditions right. In replying he also spoke about inflation, the national deficit and, I think, interest rates as having been kept under control. All of these have been kept under control over the past three of four years but the reality is that our unemployment figures continue to grow. Apart from looking forward to the cessation of the recession in the United Kingdom, will the Minister say whether the Government have or are examining any other policy options? Furthermore, what proportion of the unemployed does the Minister believe would be taken out of unemployment as a result of an upturn in the United Kingdom economy and what proportion he predicts would simply emigrate to participate in the United Kingdom economy as a result of that upturn?
I might make three points. First, one I made already, that overall employment has increased by 41,000 since 1987. Second, we look forward to the jobs forum, the Joint Oireachtas Committee on Employment being a fruitful source of ideas. With regard to proportionality, I would not have any idea. I do not think any living person could make such a forecast with any kind of accuracy.
Does the Minister accept that lack of qualifications is a major cause of unemployment among the under-25s? Have his Department had any meetings with the Department of Education in order to devise jointly a programme for adequate training for our young people? Furthermore, would the Minister not agree that training for many 15 to 16-year-olds is being provided at a time when they will have already experienced failure and rejection within an academic educational system? What steps will his Department take jointly with the Department of Education to provide training at an earlier stage concurrent with the overall education system?
I could not agree more with the Deputy about training and education. The fact is that the figure for unemployed people bear a direct proportional relationship to the qualifications of those concerned.
With regard to training, as the House will be aware, the Treaty of Rome did not make provision for education, it being thought that education was not relevant to the original Economic Community, whereas under the new Union Treaty that will not be so, education will have its proper place. Despite the fact that it was not mentioned in the original Treaty of Rome, under the heading of training, substantial investment was made by the European Social Fund in training in this country under the auspices of the Departments of Education and Labour. Of course there is liaison between those two Departments who co-ordinate their respective policies.
Does the Minister accept that the unemployment figures have risen at the rate of approximately 1 per cent per annum since 1987 and that, if this trend continues, a very serious crisis will develop long before the year 2000? Would he inform the House what proposals or plans the Government have to deal with that problem as it develops in the next couple of years?
I was under the illusion that I had covered the point raised by the Deputy now in replying to the question, taking cognisance of the fact that his Question No. 29 was included in the reply.
With no disrespect to the Minister I would have to say that he has not answered my question.
I take it the Deputy does not want me to repeat it?
No, I do not want the Minister to read it again. The Minister referred to the Programme for Economic and Social Progress. If there is to be such a vast increase in the numbers of people unemployed clearly that programme has not been a success to date. What plans or proposals have the Government to deal with the escalating numbers of unemployed?
I have indicated that the policies put in place since 1987 resulted in an increase of 41,000 people employed and, in the non-agricultural sector, 70,000; that the job training scheme has that objective in view, as has the employment subsidy scheme. Indeed the Oireachtas Joint Committee on Employment will be exercising their collective minds on that as well.
Having regard to the fact that the 41,000 jobs to which the Minister referred as having arisen between the years 1987 and now, at a time of unprecedented growth which we are unlikely to achieve again in the course of this decade, and having regard to the fact that the Industrial Training in Ireland report forecast that 242,000 people will emigrate in the latter part of this decade, can the Minister indicate what policies the Government have other than awaiting a turnaround or cessation of the recession in the United Kingdom? What policies do the Government have to deal with this potential disaster here?
I only mentioned the question of the recession in the United Kingdom and in the USA as one of the factors which had led to increased numbers unemployed. I would not be quite as pessimistic as the Deputy about the potential for growth in the future; I do not know; neither does the Deputy or anybody else. But since nobody would have believed that, in one of those years, we had a 7.5 per cent growth in our economy it could very well recur. I am convinced the Government are seriously concerned about this problem, more concerned about this than any other problem, and that the best possible minds will be brought to bear — on an across-the-House basis — to endeavour to improve the position overall in relation to employment.
