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JOINT COMMITTEE ON AGRICULTURE, FISHERIES AND FOOD díospóireacht -
Wednesday, 12 Nov 2008

Common Agricultural Policy Health Check: Discussion.

On behalf of the joint committee, I welcome Mr. Aidan O'Driscoll, assistant secretary, Ms Brid Cannon, principal officer, and Ms Kay Ryan, assistant principal officer, from the Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food. The committee has invited them to give members an overview of the health check and current Common Agricultural Policy proposals. The meeting is particularly timely as it precedes next week's Council of Ministers meeting at which the CAP will be one of the main items on the agenda.

Before calling on our guests to make their presentation, I draw their attention to the fact that while members of the committee have absolute privilege, the same privilege does not apply to witnesses appearing before the committee. Members are reminded of the long-standing parliamentary practice to the effect that they should not comment on, criticise or make charges against a person outside the Houses or an official by name or in such a way as to make him or her identifiable.

I call on Mr. O'Driscoll to make his opening statement.

Mr. Aidan O’Driscoll

I welcome the opportunity to update the joint committee on the health check. I last addressed it on the topic in December 2007, at which stage only the Commission communication had been published. Since then the Council of Ministers agreed in March a set of conclusions on the Commission communication which set the framework for subsequent negotiations. The draft legislative proposals were published in May and have put flesh on many of the ideas contained in the communication. These have been the subject of detailed negotiation since at official and ministerial level. The French Presidency hopes to bring the negotiations to a political conclusion at the Council of Ministers meeting next week.

The CAP health check arises from review clauses built into the 2003 CAP reform package on milk quotas and the implementation of the single payment scheme. In legal terms, it is a review of three legislative measures on the single payment scheme, the rural development policy and the single Common Market Organisation. The Council conclusions of last March underlined that the health check was intended to address three main questions: first, the effectiveness, efficiency and simplification of the single payment scheme; second, the role of market support instruments in improving market orientation; third, responding to new and ongoing challenges of risk management, climate change, bio-fuels, water management and biodiversity.

The health check proposals are a large and complex set of detailed measures and it would not be possible to go through all of them today. However, it might be helpful if I briefly touched on some of the main issues that are the focus of debate, at least in this country. The first is milk quotas. The current milk quota regime will expire on 31 March 2015. The Commission has stated on numerous occasions that it will not bring forward a proposal to continue the regime beyond that date and that, in any case, there would not be a qualified majority in Council for such an extension. The milk elements of the health check proposals are, therefore, structured with this in mind.

To provide for a smooth transition towards quota expiry in 2015, often referred to as a "soft landing", a 1% per year increase in quota for five years, commencing in 2009-10, is proposed. It is also proposed that the Commission will report to the Council and the European Parliament in 2011 on the necessity for other measures to ensure a "soft landing" and, if appropriate, will bring forward proposals. As to market management measures, it is proposed to abolish aid for private storage, APS, for cheese, disposal aid for butter for the pastry-ice cream industries and aid for butter for direct consumption. It is also proposed that APS for butter, aid for skimmed milk powder, SMP, for feeding stuffs and casein production aid will be made "optional" at the discretion of the Commission and that a tendering system for intervention for butter and SMP will replace the current regime.

Ireland's position is predicated on the understanding that milk quotas will end in March 2015. We agree with the need to ensure a "soft landing". The alternative of a sudden change in 2015 with no preparation would clearly be very disruptive to markets and damaging to dairy farmers. Ireland believes the overall proposal to increase quotas by 1% per annum is rather conservative. The Commission's own impact assessment suggests a somewhat larger increase would lead to a smoother phasing out of quotas. At a recent meeting with the Commission and the French Presidency the Minister stressed the need for a genuine "soft landing" when milk quotas come to an end, accompanied by a predictable set of steps that would allow farmers and industry to plan for the future. He emphasised the need for progressive quota increases and sought that additional quota allocations for Ireland be front-loaded, given our capacity to increase production. One possible avenue identified to achieve this was through a change to the butterfat adjustment. While there is support from some other countries for Ireland's position, there are other member states that have a very different view, particularly those that do not have the same potential for additional production. If necessary to get agreement, Ireland is open to a differentiated approach for member states.

In the negotiations we have also strongly defended the view that quota increases must be matched by effective dairy market management measures. The transition to a post-quota EU dairy market, with current market fluctuations, makes this particularly important. We have, therefore, called for the continuation of such measures and are particularly concerned to keep effective measures for the support of the butter market. These measures are used by Irish producers and are particularly important for us. The Minister has recently called on the Commission to use the dairy market management tools in the light of the current weakness in dairy product prices.

I now turn to modulation, the process under which a proportion of each farmer's single farm payment is transferred to rural development in pillar 2 of the CAP. The current rate of compulsory modulation is 5%. For payments in excess of €5,000, additional compulsory modulation at a rate of 2% per year is proposed from 2009 to 2012. This would bring the modulation rate to 13% by 2012. A further 3% modulation is proposed on payments in excess of €100,000; an additional 6% on payments over €200,000 and an additional 9% on payments above €300,000. This is referred to as progressive modulation. The moneys resulting from increased modulation, with the required national co-funding, must be used on rural development schemes which address the so-called "new challenges" of climate change, bio-energy, water management and biodiversity.

Ireland has opposed the proposed modulation increases on the grounds that they run counter to the expectations of farmers who accepted decoupling just three years ago and are still in the process of adapting to that fundamental change. In Ireland, the cumulative amount raised from the single payment scheme through this proposal over the four years to 2012 would be €172 million approximately. These funds would remain in Ireland and could be used for farmer payments under the rural development programme. In excess of 55,000 Irish farmers would be exempt from any modulation deduction.

With regard to simplification, the Minister has said on numerous occasions that simplification should be a key focus of the health check. We have made a number of suggestions in this regard which we have brought to the attention of the Commission and the Council. We are interested in delivering real and measurable simplification for farmers and administrations alike. A large number of other member states are of similar mind and many proposals have been made in the course of the negotiations. It is clear that some progress will be made on this in the health check, even though most of the changes are technical. However, it is also clear that there is an impetus for the simplification process to continue after any agreement on this package, given the large number of proposals made and the number of member states pushing for change in this area.

One area of simplification receiving attention from the Commission is the proposal that all remaining coupled schemes, with the exception of suckler cow and sheep and goat premia, be decoupled. Certain other member states are seeking retention of coupled schemes either on a permanent basis or for a further period. As we are fully decoupled, Ireland would tend to support movement towards further decoupling. However, we would not have a difficulty in allowing member states some freedom to continue coupled schemes to support certain vulnerable areas or sectors, provided this would not distort competition.

It is also proposed to allow member states the option of moving to a flatter rate payment per hectare. The Commission's thinking is that, with the passage of time, the historic model, that is, payments based on actual aid receipts by each farmer in the reference period 2000-02, will become less relevant and defensible. New member states have used the discussions on flatter rates to press for rebalancing of payment allocations between old and new member states. Ireland operates fully decoupled arrangements under the historic model. The Minister has made it clear that he has no plans to alter our system of single payments. We welcome the optional nature of this proposal and would object to any movement towards a mandatory change at this time. It is clear that this option will be included in the final agreement and used by a number of member states that currently operate the historic payments model.

Article 68 is the provision whereby up to 10% of single payment funds may be targeted at specific measures. It is proposed to broaden the scope of this existing provision by removing some restrictions and providing an enlarged menu of options for the use of these funds. In addition, it is proposed to allow use of the national reserve for such measures.

Ireland is open to having greater flexibility in the article as an option for member states. We see it as a potential means to support regions or sectors facing particular challenges due to decoupling and competitive markets. In this regard, the Minister for Agriculture, Fisheries and Food, Deputy Brendan Smith, has sought an increase in EU funding under the article. Many countries, including Ireland, are unable to fully utilise the funding allocated for the single farm payment scheme because of the complex and restrictive rules governing it. The Minister, therefore, is seeking greater national discretion in the use of these funds. If agreed, this would release the unspent funds and provide additional moneys for necessary measures to assist farmers the under article. A number of other member states support this proposal. The Commissioner has responded somewhat cautiously but agreed to consider the idea when the Minister raised it at their most recent meeting.

Under the proposed Article 68, member states would be allowed to support crop and livestock insurance or mutual funds for animal and plant diseases. There is considerable support among some member states for greater use of such risk management measures. As the proposals are optional, we have no difficulty with them.

A payment of €250, or an area of 1 hectare, was originally proposed as the minimum requirement for receiving the single farm payment under the proposals. The figure of €250 has since been revised downwards at the most recent meeting to €100 following pressure from many member states, including Ireland. The existing provision of 0.3 hectares is discretionary and we would prefer if the provision remained optional. The €100 threshold would affect approximately 850 payees but they would have a number of options such as acquiring more land or selling their entitlements to avoid the cut. If the entitlements were to remain unused for two consecutive years, they would be added to the national reserve.

Aside from the changes in market management measures proposed in the dairy sector, to which I have referred, it is also proposed to introduce tendering systems for intervention for bread wheat, quantitative ceilings — at zero — for intervention for feed grains and abolish intervention for durum wheat, rice and pigmeat. In principle, Ireland has always supported the concept of market management measures which play a useful role as a safety net at a time of change. However, apart from the dairy sector, we have made limited use of such measures in recent years.

This is not a comprehensive outline of the proposals but I have covered some of the key points and would be happy to cover others if the committee so wishes.

I welcome Mr. O'Driscoll and his colleagues, Ms Brid Cannon and Ms Kay Ryan. It is opportune, given the significance of the debate on the CAP health check for farmers. It is also timely in respect of what will happen next week. I thank Mr. O'Driscoll for his update on matters since his last appearance before the committee almost 12 months ago on 11 December 2007. Things have moved on significantly since. I want to deal with a number of sectors along the same lines as Mr. O'Driscoll conveniently structured them.

On milk quotas, 12 months ago the dairy sector, both nationally and globally, was on an upswing. Farmers had seen a significant, if unexpected, rise in milk prices and global markets were particularly buoyant. We have now seen a reverse — a calamitous collapse in global dairy markets and consequences at the farm gate. Twelve months ago milk prices were close to 40 cent per litre; now they are under 30 cent per litre and heading rapidly towards a market price in the region of 20 cent. The challenge for the CAP health check is to manage that volatility to sustain the family farm structure in Europe. It is not an option to compete with New Zealand or America because of the more structured and restrictive conditions we impose on dairy farmers, including animal welfare and environmental regulations. Milk is produced here without the aid of hormone treatment, while in the United States BST is a significant factor in milk production. By virtue of these freedoms which European producers, including those in Ireland, do not enjoy, the Americans are able to ride out significant volatility in the market. Unless we put measures in place in the context of the CAP health check to deal with this volatility, the family farm structure of the dairy industry, not just in Ireland but throughout Europe——

I am sorry to interrupt the Deputy but as there is a vote in the Dáil, we must suspend the sitting.

Sitting suspended at 11.55 a.m. and resumed at 12.10 p.m.

The point I wanted to make was that I would have serious reservations about moving entirely away from market management initiatives that would be available following the health check or the ending of the quota regime because our structure was not capable of managing such volatility. That volatility in the dairy sector would impact, not just at the farm gate but also on the processing sector. It is true to say, although it is not a palatable message for farmers to hear, that co-operatives — a term I use advisedly — are probably paying a price that is not sustainable in the long term. The processing sector, as much as the primary producer, would be a victim if we were to throw away all of the market management initiatives available such as aids to private storage and intervention. That volatility — skimmed milk powder and butter prices have almost halved in 12 months — is as likely to happen in a post-quota regime as it is today. Not having access to such interventions which, I understand, it is proposed should be wound down would be calamitous for the family farm structure and dairy enterprises in Ireland and across Europe. What possible level of support is there at European level for retaining these instruments to manage the market?

At farm gate level, there is much conflicting advice and opinion on the desirability of quota increases. In many respects, the debate has moved on, not just on quota increases and the euphemism of a soft landing, about which we all have become more sceptical, given what has happened in the broader economy. As an immediate objective of the health check, we should be looking for an intervention floor price in the market so as to encourage buyers to come back into the market and restore some sense of predictability. It seems there is an unending downward spiral which is alarming.

Our guests might also comment on the politics across the 27 member states on the ending of the quota regime and outline their views on market intervention systems.

On the modulation issue, I have only one piece of information for the Minister, that is, that for farmer the single payment is a static payment which has been losing value because of inflation. Any proposal that would further erode its value by 1% or 2% per annum would be entirely unacceptable. The message must be delivered loud and clear that a prosperous rural community is not served by a policy instrument that robs Peter to pay Paul by investing money in rural development and reducing the value of the single payment.

We have been waiting a while for progress on the simplification of red tape and cross-compliance measures, etc. The issue has been kicked to touch. I would like to receive more information.

The sheep sector is expecting good news in the context of the health check. Mr. O'Driscoll referred to Article 68. Is that one of the areas in which we can expect funding to be made available? He stated Article 68 is the provision whereby up to 10% of single payment funds may be targeted at specific measures. Across Europe what are the prospects of this happening? As enunciated on numerous occasions at this committee and elsewhere, there has been an alarming fall in sheep numbers and an exodus from the sector. The Malone report is fine but, as I have stated, it is about what happens in the long term. We need an immediate cash injection into sheep farmers' pockets to stabilise numbers and ensure a level to sustain the processing industry which is under threat. Mr. O'Driscoll might indicate the position on achieving progress in that regard. Will this matter be wrapped up and finalised next week, which, I understand, is the objective of the French Presidency? Is this overly ambitious?

I also welcome the departmental officials. I will pose some brief questions to begin with.

How does the Department see the market for milk evolving post-2015? We are talking about an increase in quotas up to 2015, although there is a strong view emanating from producers within the sector that there should be no further increases. I would like to hear the Department's response to this view.

As regards the post-2015 scenario, does the Department envisage that there will be far fewer milk producers? Will there be a greater consolidation of farm holdings as a result? Will we follow the UK model which, arguably, is not necessarily the best one? There is a certain critique into which I will not delve.

On modulation, a movement of funding from pillar 1 to pillar 2 would be significant. There is a lack of clarity on who would control the spend. If it is envisaged that some of this spend would be encompassed by the rural development programme, does this mean that the Department would no longer have control of it? Would it be under the control of the Department of Community, Rural and Gaeltacht Affairs? If that is the case, certain issues would arise. Will our guests clarify the position on the Department's thinking in respect of that process?

I will await a response to the points I have raised and proceed from there.

I welcome the officials from the Department. The news in respect of milk production is not very good. Why did global prices change so rapidly in such a short period? Only 12 months ago the outlook was excellent. Apparently, however, the position has changed dramatically. The milk quota regime will expire on 31 March 2015. That is a foregone conclusion because there will not be any support in Europe for extending the scheme. While there is support for Ireland's position, there are member states which have a different view. I refer, in particular, to those countries which do not have the same potential for additional production.

What steps can be taken here and elsewhere in Europe to prevent New Zealand, in particular, and Australia from assuming control of the bulk of global milk and dairy production? If a country on the far side of the world can supply milk to Europe at such a low price, we must ask what European and Irish producers are doing wrong. Is the cost of milk production in this country too high? What steps does the Government envisage taking in order to curb this serious threat? Only if the dairy industry flourishes will agriculture maintain its rightful position in the economy.

Ireland has a good climate and there is plenty of grass on which cattle can graze. We produce the best milk in the world. How can we put this message across globally, particularly when farmers in New Zealand can produce milk and dairy products at a cost that is 50% lower than that which obtains in this country? We must answer these questions and tackle certain matters in the immediate future. I await the views of our guests.

I welcome Mr. O'Driscoll and his colleagues. It has been stated that many countries, including Ireland, are unable to utilise Article 68 funding. Are there figures available in this regard? I understood this funding was targeted at enhanced programmes relating to sheep welfare, etc.

Mr. O'Driscoll stated that if modulation increases were rolled out under the single farm payment scheme, the cumulative amount raised in the next four years would be €172 million and that there would be a need for co-funding in respect of rural development schemes. Is there an agenda to use this money under the CAP to move away from food security and production into other areas of rural development?

I understand the nitrates directive has not yet been fully implemented. What complications will the dairy sector experience in the full implementation of the directive? I do not believe it will result in anything positive. What will be the bottom line for the dairy sector when all aspects of the directive have been enforced?

I apologise for my late arrival. I am sorry I missed Mr. O'Driscoll's presentation but I was obliged to attend another meeting.

I have not yet had much of an opportunity to read the presentation but wish to raise one or two issues in respect of milk prices. In the past ten years Glanbia's average price for milk per litre was 30.1 cent. In New Zealand, the average price was 17.9 cent. I presume the latter is the current open market price. How are we going to protect Irish farmers? There is no way dairy farming in this country will survive if the average price remains at 17.9 cent per litre.

Mr. Aidan O’Driscoll

I will try to group the questions and deal with them in the context of the various headings.

All of the members referred to milk production. In the current market conditions, as Deputy Creed and others pointed out, there have been sharp decreases in milk prices in European and Irish markets during the past 12 months. This decline has been all the sharper because it arrived in the aftermath of the exceptionally high peak in 2007. In the autumn of that year international and Irish dairy prices hit an all-time high. The adjustment in the interim has been extremely sharp. It is understandable a great deal of attention is being paid to the immediate problems faced by dairy producers on foot of these much lower prices.

One must consider this issue in the context of what remains the medium-term outlook offered by most of the specialist bodies — the OECD, the FAO, the FAPRI, etc., — which examine matters of this nature. All of the projections suggest the medium-term outlook for the dairy sector is still strong, particularly in terms of increased consumption in Europe and internationally.

A number of members referred to New Zealand and the issue of competition. There is a growing international market but also increased competition from producers in the United States and New Zealand. That is the reality and one of the factors driving prices lower. For example, the weaker dollar has increased the competitiveness of US industry. There are also a number of weather-related factors which impact on dairy production both in Ireland and internationally. As Deputy Creed stated, there is a pattern of increased volatility. The view we have taken is that, for Irish and European producers, effective market management measures must be kept in place and should be available to the Union, if needed, when the level of volatility increases. At the same time, we must address the fact that in the medium term there will be increasing opportunities in international markets. As Deputy P. J. Sheehan stated, New Zealand, Australia and the United States are taking advantage of these opportunities. The European Union can decide to allow them to proceed or it can seek to obtain its fair share of this growing market. Those are the options we face. It is difficult, therefore, to deal with both issues simultaneously. For that reason, Ireland has advocated a balanced position in the health check. We have advocated increasing milk quota leading up to abolition in 2015 but we have stressed that must go along with effective market management measures.

What does Mr. O'Driscoll mean by the term "effective market management measures", which he has used three or four times?

Mr. Aidan O’Driscoll

It means, first, measures are available to the Community when prices fall and, second, that they are used. For example, markets are falling currently and the Minister has written to the Commissioner seeking action. He has asked the Commissioner to use the tools available to her. The Commission has indicated it will bring forward the date for the opening of private storage aids for butter to January 2009 from the normal opening date in March. That is an example of a tool that exists and a willingness to recognise it needs to be used.

With regard to effectiveness, the tool must be there first of all. It cannot be abolished because if that happens, it will not be available. It must be used when required, which is when prices fall. They are the two actions we are anxious to ensure. For that reason we have not been happy with the Commission's proposals regarding restricting or removing elements of the market management measures while at the same time advocating quota increases. A number of members raised the position of other member states, which is important on this question. A number are not constrained by quota because they do not have the production potential. Many of them agree with us on the market management measures but they do not agree with the quota increases.

Which member states?

Mr. Aidan O’Driscoll

The countries with significant production potential include ourselves, the Dutch and the Danes. It is entirely understandable that all three of us advocate quota increases. The general view is that Germany does not have the same production potential, for example, and, therefore, it is, not surprisingly, significantly negative on the question of quota increases. However, the countries that are negative on quota increases may, at the same time, want the market management measures. Countries can be divided into a number of different pockets, including those with the potential to produce and that, therefore, want additional quota but, like us, recognise the need for market management measures to manage that volatility; others such as Denmark that want additional quota but are opposed to such measures and favour a more liberalised approach; some that are opposed to quota increases but can support such measures; and one or two that are opposed to both quota increases and market management measures.

The position we have advocated serves Ireland's interests best. We have production potential but want effective action when there is market volatility. Our position is crystal clear. We want a quota increase but we also want effective market management to deal with volatility. We cannot predict how all of this will align at the end of the negotiations next week, assuming they end then, and we must wait and see.

Deputy Sherlock asked about market evolution post-2015. The prospects for dairy production expansion in the medium to long term are quite good on international markets. All the evidence and best research points to that and it is happening at the moment. He asked whether there would be fewer producers in the future. The pattern to date has been a sharp reduction in the number of products with a consolidation of dairy production in the hands of a smaller number of full-time farmers. Once quotas are abolished, however, the dynamics may change. I do not wish to predict the number of producers will increase because I am not sure about that but the dynamics will change once quotas go. Farmers who do not have the option of dairy production currently will have the option. A farmer will face capital costs to move from other forms of production into dairying, which will be a constraint, but, nevertheless, the option will be there. The dynamics will change, probably significantly, but it is difficult to predict the outcome. There are strong reasons for the reduction in the number of producers, particularly the difficulty associated with dairy farming on a part-time basis. It is generally felt to be a full-time job and, therefore, a farm of a size to sustain a full-time job is needed.

The Deputy also asked whether some producers were opposed to quota increases. There are mixed views on this and it is not a straightforward issue. The majority view among producers and processors is firmly in favour of the quota increases. It is important to remember we are in process of evolution towards no quotas. The option is to not have quotas, retain them or to increase quotas and do nothing until 2015 before jumping off the edge of the cliff or to gradually adjust in the period up to 2015. We are clear about the best option for domestic producers.

Will Mr. O'Driscoll address the issue of equivalence on the global market between the standards of production that apply and the use of hormones?

I welcome the health check on the CAP, which has good aspects. I am concerned about the abolition of milk quota. There are two ways to look at it. If one is a young farmer trying to get into dairying, the abolition of milk quota is good to create the opportunity to access the market and expand. However, the market is a problem and the price of milk has not generated a positive return this year, which is a worry. An increase in milk quota of 1% is proposed followed by the abolition in 2015 after which a farmer can produce as much milk as he likes. Without a support mechanism, I am worried about what will happen dairy producers at that stage. We might gain on the one hand with the freedom to produce as much milk as we want but, on the other, we might not be paid well enough for dairy products, and, therefore, it is a catch-22 situation. I welcome the quota increase from the point of view of a young farmer starting out who is trying to expand his herd but, without the support mechanism, I am worried about the price of a gallon of milk.

I am a member of the Joint Committee on Climate Change and Energy Security. We were in Brussels last Monday week and met the climate change committee there. Between 2013 and 2020 this country must reduce its carbon footprint or CO2 emissions by 30%. The agricultural sector is recognised as being responsible for 27% of that reduction. I am concerned about what will happen here if we are responsible for making this reduction and have to reduce greenhouse gases resulting from the bovine sector. If we are to have young farmers coming into the business, how are we to correlate this reduction with expanding farming?

We discussed that matter last week and do not want to rehash the issue.

The Minister for the Environment, Heritage and Local Government, Deputy Gormley, has a solution. Perhaps the Deputy should have a word with him about it.

We do not have to worry about young farmers — they got rid of them by removing installation aid.

Members must speak through the Chair, not across the table or they will be asked to leave.

I am a farmer and come from a farming background. I may be a politician, but I am a farmer first and always was. I come from the farming sector and know what I am talking about because I was a dairy farmer. I am concerned about how we will marry the two areas. We are being told one thing by some people and something else by others. What we should worry about is market price.

I must also mention modulation and the 5% of the CAP that is being transferred to rural development. I have concerns about this. There is a proposal that there will be a further 2% added to this. I accept progressive charging, but am concerned about adding a further 2% from 2009 to 2012. If my calculations are correct, that means 6% and 5%, a total of 11%, will be transferred directly from CAP to rural development. While I welcome rural development in pillar 2 and welcome this change to investment in rural development, I am concerned the funds are being taken from CAP and from the direct payments that go to farmers producing products. Is that the right way to go? Is 11% being taken from CAP and being put into rural development a good thing for farmers? When it comes down to it, it is the farmers we are concerned about.

The sheep sector is at a low ebb. Now the officials are here, where are the proposals for the sheep sector? What is happening in the sector? There were rumours going around that farmers would get €30 per ewe. How advanced are the proposals and where does the Government stand on this? When will we see some progress in this regard?

I apologise for missing the start of the meeting, but we have a debate on fishing in the Seanad to which I must return. I apologise if my question has been asked already. With regard to the new milk quota regime that will come in following the official end of quotas and to the comments on new entrants, will there be a co-op, national or EU rule with regard to new suppliers? Will there be a licensing system that will decide on new entrants or will it be a free for all? The total production limits will be gone and Ireland and Europe will be able to produce what they can physically produce, but will new entrants have to be licensed? Will that be a new control mechanism? If so, will it be a co-op, national or EU rule or is the thinking at EU level that new entrants, if they wish, can become milk producers?

I welcome the health check on the CAP. I wish to make a few points about the importance of an increase in milk quota. While an increase in quota is welcome, the most important factor is the price of the product. There is no point in having significant extra quota if farmers cannot make money from their produce. I would like to see more concentration on the marketing area. We cannot stress enough the importance of keeping our produce, whether milk, beef, pork etc., at a price at which farmers can make money. There is no point in a farmer producing 200,000 gallons of milk and making no money from it, if he could produce 100,000 gallons and make a decent living from it. That is what we should be striving towards.

We are up against rules and regulations that our competitors do not face. We must consider what these rules and regulations are costing Irish producers, whatever sector they are in. The bottom line is whether the producer is making money. While the quotas might be relevant now, we are looking ahead to 2015 and I am not aware of any new regime coming in then. Senator Bradford asked whether a new regime on quotas was expected, but I am not aware of any. We must concentrate on the market price and on getting out and competing in the market. We cannot compete if we are over regulated and if it costs us more than we are making. There are costs put on Irish producers that are not put on producers producing the same products in other parts of the world.

Deputy Aylward made a point about carbon emissions and the problem we face in the future. I understand we get no carbon credits from our forestry. This issue will be the focus of debate in the future.

Are there plans in place to support dairy farmers in Ireland when, as will happen, we hit the market price for milk? If we are looking at a market price of 17.9 cent compared to the average price of 30.5 cent over the past ten years, we will not need extra quota because nobody will be supplying milk. Are there plans in place to try to support the dairy industry after 2015?

I am sorry for being late but I had to attend another committee meeting. With regard to the health check, I recognise that we must adhere to and follow the rules, but I have strong reservations with regard to increasing milk quota. The Irish farming industry has been very much a commodity based industry, but we have lost that with added value. We have only a small chocolate crumb industry now because a number of the facilities we had have gone. Therefore, an increase in the milk quota will go into powders, which are a big problem in the world today. We will see a fall in milk prices because of the increase in production. It is increasing in North America, Argentina and New Zealand, where there is a 12% increase in production. This will all reduce the value of Ireland's 5.5 million tonnes. We are only a small fish in the pool and will suffer. The trends are bad with regard to the milk industry.

Added value was to be the way forward for the Irish industry, but we seem to have no added value left and nothing is being done about it. All we see is further pressure to produce dried milk. This is an issue for farmers. It is quite easy for substantial milk producers around the country to continue their campaign of the past number of years for an increase in quota, but they will be the first to leave production and leave it to the 40-cow or 50-cow farmers to keep the industry going.

The quota system has been generous to Ireland and has done good for Irish farmers and family farms. This has been the basis of the Irish agricultural economy. We should have another look at the proposals. I have spoken to the Minister on the issue and have told him I do not agree with the increase in quota. The Chairman has heard me say this. There is an issue with regard to increasing the quota, but the quota system has served the country well. However, there are some people who want to have massive quotas, but they will be the first to leave the industry if there is no profit margin and will expect 40-cow and medium-sized family farmers to keep production going.

The point I wish to stress is that Irish farmers have never been found wanting with regard to production. When they were asked to produce any commodity, they were never found wanting and they will be here to produce what is needed. However, the issue is the price they get for their product and it is on that we must concentrate.

Mr. Aidan O’Driscoll

To take up some of the points which have been made, it is important to understand that the proposal to get rid of quotas in 2015 is not part of the health check. That proposal already exists. The position is that milk quotas will lapse in March 2015, unless a decision is made to extend them. In that context, the Commission has said it will not make a proposal to extend the milk quotas and it is the widely accepted view that even if the Commission made such a proposal, there is not a qualified majority in the Council to extend milk quotas. So the end of the milk quotas in 2015 is not specifically part of the health check, rather it is a background to the health check. It is in the context that milk quotas will lapse in 2015 that there is this discussion about what people call a soft landing. In other words, rather than just leaving the quotas in place until 2015 and then ending them suddenly with the obvious market disruption this would cause, there should instead be a process of gradual evolution towards the ending of quotas and the best way to achieve this is by quota increases. There are other adjustments such as the butter fat adjustment that can be made to help in that process. The Irish position throughout the negotiations has been that while that is true and we recognise the need to gradually increase quota in order to achieve that soft landing, at the same time we want to see that market management measures are kept in place and are actually used effectively when required. This is what I described earlier as our balanced approach.

It is true to say that in the long term, as Deputy Aylward said, there is a trade-off between price and volume and that is just the reality of markets. In a post-2015 environment, that is the kind of environment we will be in. However, it is widely recognised in Europe, and this is supported by research, that Ireland is one of the countries with significant additional production potential in milk, unlike a lot of other European countries. While many other European countries will have to deal with the downside of this change, we at least have this option of this up side, that we can increase our production and take advantage of some of this growing market. There are relatively few countries in Europe which seem to be genuinely in this position.

I have a question about milk. Are there any plans in place to support dairy farming after 2015? If the current prices exist then, there is no need for extra production because the people will not be physically able to produce milk at 19 cent a litre. Are there any plans in place to deal with this problem which is coming down the tracks?

Mr. O'Driscoll stated we have space to produce more milk but there is a huge capital requirement to process that milk because existing facilities are practically at their wits' end to process what they have. Where are we going to find the extra capital in those organisations, many of which are on their knees anyway? There is a grave contradiction here. It is a huge capital requirement. To process an extra 40 million gallons of milk today would take about €20 million and that is only the fixed capital. We can have the space, the land and the grass. We have to find the dairy stock which is scarce. This is a real issue.

We must move on to the next subject as we are short of time.

Mr. Aidan O’Driscoll

To deal with those precise two points, the Government put in place a €100 million package to support the dairy processing industry and this is designed to try to move us to a position where we will be able to take advantages of the opportunities emerging in the future. This is an important measure that assists with the issue referred to. At farm level the position varies a lot. Teagasc research would suggest that even with their existing stock levels, farmers have a significant additional production potential — this refers back to the greenhouse gas issue indirectly. We are all aware of the situation because we know individual dairy farmers. Many dairy farmers have the capacity as it is, with their existing stock and with their existing capital infrastructure, to expand production if they were allowed to but they have been held back by the quota system and by the cost of quota. There are opportunities although I do not wish to suggest that everything is rosy in the garden because this is plainly not the case. However, Ireland is well placed to take advantage of the opportunities. I agree we will need to have the necessary investment and the necessary structural change to ensure that we are competitive in the future. There is no doubt about that. We will have to do what it takes to make sure that we are in a position to take advantage of the opportunities but the more than €100 million investment programme in the dairy processing sector is certainly one important leg of that. The dairy quota exchange system introduced over the past few years has also been aimed at improving the competitiveness of dairy farming at farm level. We are therefore addressing them at both levels.

I will move on now from the subject of milk or we could continue if the committee wishes.

I apologise for harping on about the subject but are there any plans in place because milk quotas are going to go and the dairy farmers will be facing a world price for milk? If milk is 19 cent a litre we will not need extra capacity as we will not have the milk because people will not be able to produce it.

Mr. Aidan O’Driscoll

I repeat that more than €100 million has been invested in the dairy processing industry and that is a long-term plan.

I remind members there is only one meeting taking place here.

Mr. Aidan O’Driscoll

This expenditure will involve a significant improvement in the competitiveness of the dairy processing industry. The efficiency of the dairy processing industry is an important determinant in the price the farmer receives. There are two determinants in the price the farmer receives, one is the situation on world markets for dairy products and the other is the efficiency of processing level.

So there are no plans.

Mr. Aidan O’Driscoll

There are plans. I think €100 million is quite a significant plan. It is our practice in the Department to put in place every five years a medium-term plan for the entire agriculture sector. We had the agrifood 2010 plan and we currently have the agri-vision 2015 plan. It will be the case that over the next period we will be developing a 2020 plan as this is our normal five year planning strategy. That plan will take further account of the issues to which the Deputy referred. However, significant measures are already in place in the dairy quota exchange and in the investment scheme at processing level to assist the sector now to help it adapt to the changes.

I ask Mr. O'Driscoll to deal with the next subject because it is not fair to the next group who are waiting outside. We have to be finished by 2 p.m. I advise members we can return to this issue another day.

There is a 5% charge this year.

Mr. Aidan O’Driscoll

I am happy to return another day.

There were a number of questions on the subject of modulation. Deputy Creed talked about stealing from Peter to pay Paul. We have taken the view that farmers signed up to the single farm payment. We decided on a fully decoupled payment which we think was the right decision. We think this decision should be respected and that the existing level of modulation which is 5% should not be substantially increased as it is in this proposal. There are different views within different member states on this issue. A number of specific questions were asked. Deputy Sherlock asked who will control the money. The position is that the money that will be transferred if there is additional modulation would go into the rural development programme. This programme is a joint programme between our Department and the Department of Community, Rural and Gaeltacht Affairs. However, the provisions in the health check allow the entire amount to be spent on agricultural schemes.

Mr. Aidan O’Driscoll

They are agricultural measures under the rural development programme. The specific requirement is that they are used under the so-called "new challenges", which are biodiversity, water management and so on that I mentioned in my opening remarks. However, many of the measures under our existing programme will address those issues. REPS, for example, would be a measure that addresses those issues. One could create new measures. There would be a number of different options as to what to do with this funding if modulation was agreed. It is an important point of clarification that the money stays in Ireland and can be entirely used for agriculture.

Some things were agreed on simplification, which we believe are useful. For example, there is a complex system for dealing with the first €5,000 which is exempt from modulation. That has been significantly simplified and will help the farmer. He will get his full payment earlier. The abolition of compulsory set-aside is advantageous for farmers from our point of view and removes a good deal of complexity. There was considerable complexity in dealing with set-aside. Requirements on the transfer of entitlements are being simplified. These are rather technical but nevertheless helpful. Some of the requirements of the so-called "use it or lose it" rule stating that a farmer must use his or her single payment entitlement or lose it are being standardised. These are just a few examples. There is a large number of, admittedly, fairly technical changes in the health check.

What about the 14 days notice?

Mr. Aidan O’Driscoll

We raised the notice requirements a number of times during the health check negotiations as we had done prior to the health check negotiations. The Minister met Commissioner Vassiliou here in Dublin. He is the Commissioner dealing with DG SANCO. We have also raised it with DG AGRI. As members know, there is 14 days notice for inspections for some elements of inspections and 48 hours notice for animal identification. However, there is no notice of inspections for feed, food and animal welfare. These fall under the responsibility of DG SANCO rather than DG agriculture. DG SANCO has made it clear that it regards no-notice inspections in that area as being essential for food safety reasons. Thus far it has been unwilling to move from that position. It is standing firmly on the food safety aspects of this. That is the position. Certainly we have raised it. It has been pushed in the health check as have a large number of other issues.

I wish to draw attention to one final point on simplification generally, which I made in my opening remarks. There has been an extraordinarily strong reaction by member states in favour of further simplification of EU systems. My strong suspicion is that the push for simplification will not in any way end with the health check. While some things will be achieved in the health check, there will be more after that.

Does the Chairman want me to deal with Article 68?

Mr. O'Driscoll should do so very rapidly.

May I ask a brief question, as we do not get this opportunity too often? On the modulation issue with regard to the rural development schemes there is a perception that an income could be derived by a farmer vis-à-vis the new challenges that are spoken about — climate change, bio-energy, water management and biodiversity. In terms of management of the countryside, if I may use that euphemism, will that be taken from them as a source of income effectively and be put into Leader groups, rural development committees and organisations, where it could find its way into a black hole? I am seeking to get a guarantee about modulation and management of the countryside. Some assurance must be given to those who are involved in the sector that they will not lose an income stream and that it will not go into that so-called black hole of rural development.

We must make a decision now.

This is important.

We must decide whether we ask the ICMSA to head off today and come back another day. It is very unfair to this organisation. Members asked to invite both sets of witnesses today, with which I totally disagreed. We found ourselves in this situation before. This room will be used for another meeting at 2.15 p.m. and we need to be out of here by 2 o'clock. I have another meeting at 2 o'clock.

I propose that we finish this one in ten minutes.

I was very brief on my first few questions.

We need to show respect for this organisation, whose representatives have come a long way to be here today.

Very important issues are being discussed today under CAP and we are all here.

Members asked to have both parties here today. I was against it, but I am getting on with the meeting.

I also have to attend a meeting on climate change. I agree with Deputy Sherlock on modulation. It is taking money that farmers are getting directly today from CAP. At the moment it is at 5%. It will be increased by 2% over 2009, 2011 and 2012, which will be 6% more — 11% in total — diverted from CAP. We all agree with diversification. However, it should not be at the behest of CAP and the money that is in CAP already. That is taking money from farmers who are continuing to produce income from farming. It is great to have diversification, village renewals, heritage etc., into which this money will go. However, it will not come back directly to the farmer. Some of it might through bed and breakfast accommodation on farms etc. A small amount of money, 11%, is coming out of CAP and going into rural development. I would like to see money coming to diversification in some other way, rather than taking it from CAP. I have serious concerns about that.

Is it agreed that we ask the officials to return in the next few weeks and proceed with the meeting?

Mr. Aidan O’Driscoll

I would like to answer Deputy Aylward's question because I would really like to put this to bed. Let us be absolutely clear about this. Members should bear in mind that we are opposing the proposal. The proposal on modulation is that a cut be taken from the single farm payment, but that all of that can be used for farm schemes.

(Interruptions).

Mr. Aidan O’Driscoll

There is normally a requirement under the rural development programme to spend at least 10% on what we will call "rural affairs" type measures. There is that requirement in the normal rural development programme. At a very early stage in the negotiations, we got absolute clarity and agreement from the Commission that that would not apply to this increased modulation. All of it can be used for farm schemes and I have no doubt it will be.

What about the sheep and Article 68?

I understand modulation and I have no difficulty with Leader. However, Leader's investment is very questionable. Most of that money is spent on administration, high-powered executives and consultants. Some cap or control needs to be put on Leader because it is a waste of money. The way it invests money has become a joke in rural Ireland. The library in Trinity College would not contain the national consultancy reports it has compiled. It is a pure waste of money. It can do very good work if appropriately designated.

I suggest that Mr. O'Driscoll be given an opportunity, with due respect to the ICMSA, to deal with Article 68 and the sheep sector as that is an issue on which many members have a very specific interest.

Deputy Aylward has a brief question.

The Minister for Community, Rural and Gaeltacht Affairs seems to have more money in his coffers than anyone else. We will put more money into that area and take it from the Minister for Agriculture, Fisheries and Food. I do not know whether this is good.

I have a quick observation. I have before me an EU paper, the author of which is Mr. Alan Buckwell of the Country Land and Business Association, United Kingdom. The paper is entitled, Analysis of the Health Check Proposals: The Reform of Mechanisms for Direct Support. It states:

Modulation vs legitimacy. It is generally presumed that moving from agricultural commodity support towards rural development and agri-environment is the only real path to legitimacy.

I do not know where that agenda is coming from. It brings me back to a question I asked earlier. Is the Common Agricultural Policy being expanded and extended beyond its role in providing food security and supporting the family farm structure? That is the point I am making. This seems to be covered in a legitimate paper. I am flagging my concerns. I understand the position of the Department and the Government.

I disagree with my colleague, Deputy Ned O'Keeffe. I believe the Leader programme is doing good work in rural areas. I do not agree with what the Deputy said about it. It has been made clear that the money which is coming from modulation is going directly back into farm schemes in areas like agri-tourism. Is there is a suggestion that agri-tourism is not involved? Agricultural schemes like the rural social scheme are certainly benefiting.

The money is being taken from all and given back to some.

I ask Mr. O'Driscoll to conclude his responses to the questions that have been asked. There will be no more questions.

Mr. Aidan O’Driscoll

I will be absolutely crystal clear — the money can go directly back into farming schemes run by the Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food.

It will not——

Mr. Aidan O’Driscoll

No. It can and it will. I am not in a position to say what policy decisions will be made. I think I am on fairly safe ground in saying that. Deputy Doyle has made a relevant point. The second pillar of the Common Agricultural Policy, which relates to rural development, was set up some years ago. It focuses on environmental issues, although not exclusively. It provides supports for investment on farms. Axis 1 of the rural development pillar focuses on supporting competitiveness at farm level. Axis 2 of the pillar focuses on the environment at farm level. Axis 3 involves matters under the aegis of the Minister for Community, Rural and Gaeltacht Affairs, Deputy Ó Cuív, such as Leader groups. I will not get into that debate. We need to decide how to divide up the money. We have spent an overwhelming proportion of the Axis 1 and Axis 2 funds on rural development in Ireland — on farm schemes, in other words. The option of increased modulation is still open to us, as I have said.

Deputy Doyle is right to say that there is a strong view among some people in Europe that the second pillar should be further developed after 2013. The Commissioner has spoken in similar terms. Some elements within the EU believe there should be more emphasis on the second pillar — the development of rural development approaches to agriculture — than on the first pillar. The Minister spoke clearly about this suggestion at the information meeting of the Agriculture and Fisheries Council, at which this was discussed. He robustly defended the payments under the first pillar while supporting the second pillar. We provide a great deal of national funding under the second pillar.

A number of issues relating to Article 68 have been slightly misunderstood. I will explain the reference to 10%. One can use up to 10% of the funds in the single payment. That means one can take a further cut off farmers. That is one source of funding for Article 68. Some member states will do that, or are already doing it and will do it further. We have no such intention. The second source of funding under the proposal is a new one. I refer to the provision whereby member states can use the funds in their single payment national reserve. I will not go into that in much detail. It is there. We think it is a useful proposal and are glad it is there. It is hard to use the money in the national reserve at present. It is a relatively small amount of funding.

The Minister has raised a third option, which has received a great deal of support in recent times and is being pushed. I refer to the idea of using any unspent funds within our national allocation for single payment. This is not in the proposal. It is being pushed by our Minister. Some member states, particularly Austria, were also pushing for it at an early stage. Other member states have now come on board with this proposal. As we said in a recent public statement, the Commissioner has responded cautiously, while agreeing to consider the proposal, at least.

I do not want there to be any confusion in this regard. I confess that it is a complex matter. However, I would like to mention a completely separate issue in this context. I refer to the question of the margin between the EU budget in any year and the ceilings that were agreed in the financial perspectives. Those ceilings are different from the national single payment ceiling to which I referred earlier. I appreciate that this is complex and quite difficult. Different people are talking about different things at different times.

At the Limoges conference on sheep, the Minister suggested that the much larger margin could be used to support the sheep sector. That proposal received some support from some of those present at the conference. Whenever the sheep issue has been discussed at Council level, we have raised the possibility of using these additional funds to support the sheep sector. When the problems in the sheep sector are raised, the relatively small number of countries which are deeply involved in the sector, including Ireland, generally support action in the sector. The vast majority of member states are not that interested, unfortunately. That is the position in that regard. The Minister is still advocating that. He is still pressing it. He wrote to Mr. Barnier about the proposal not long ago, since the Limoges conference.

That is one proposal for access to funds. As part of the health check, we are also pressing for access to unspent money within the national single farm payment ceiling. That is a different area.

As I said in my opening statement, one of the proposals in the health check is that the menu of things on which one can spend Article 68 moneys should be widened. One of the new elements of the proposal is that steps be taken "to address specific disadvantages affecting farmers in the dairy, beef, veal, sheep and goatmeat and rice sectors in economically vulnerable or environmentally sensitive areas". That is one of the many options under Article 68.

Is there discretion in that regard?

Mr. Aidan O’Driscoll

There is.

In light of the complexity of the proposal, specifically as it relates to the sheep sector, can Mr. O'Driscoll give the committee a summary of its detail? Perhaps he can do so over the next couple of days.

The clerk will arrange that.

That would be great.

On behalf of the committee, I thank Mr. O'Driscoll and his colleagues for giving us an informative presentation and answering our questions. We will suspend briefly to allow the next delegation to enter the room.

Sitting suspended at 1.18 p.m. and resumed at 1.19 p.m.

I welcome the delegation from the Irish Creamery Milk Suppliers Association. On behalf of the joint committee, I welcome Mr. John O'Leary, who is the deputy president of the association, Mr. Ciaran Dolan, who is the general secretary of the association and Mr. John Enright, who is a senior policy executive with the association. We are happy to respond to the association's request to address the joint committee on the subject matter of today's meeting.

Before I call on our guests to make their presentation, I draw their attention to the fact that while members of the committee have absolute privilege, the same privilege does not apply to witnesses appearing before the committee. Members are reminded of the long-standing parliamentary practice to the effect that they should not comment on, criticise or make charges against a person outside the Houses or an official by name or in such a way as to make him or her identifiable. I ask Mr. O'Leary to make his opening statement.

Mr. John O’Leary

I thank the joint committee for inviting the ICMSA to attend this meeting in response to our request for an opportunity to outline our views. The discussion with departmental officials covered many of the issues we will raise. While we would like to raise with the committee a number of agriculture related issues, including measures in the budget, we will focus on the dairy sector.

Prices in the dairy sector have halved in the past 12 months. Milk price is a complex issue with a number of unique features. One must understand clearly how the milk price system works if one wishes to debate the future of milk quotas. In recent times a naive view about the health check has been pushed strongly in the dairy sector and adopted by the Minister. According to this view, all the problems in the sector would be solved by an increase in the milk quota in the lead-up to total abolition. This proposition is wrong and ill founded.

The dairy sector has performed well for the past century and been the hub of the rural economy. As I stated, the sector is not easy to understand. The position will not improve if quotas are removed. Even with tariff protections in place, an issue to which I will return, Irish dairy farmers will be the first to face world market conditions. The world market has two elements, namely, lower prices and greater volatility in milk price. There is no dispute over this matter, even among the most enthusiastic advocates of a policy of removing quota. The former European Commissioner for Agriculture, Mr. Franz Fischler, speaking in Dundrum, County Tipperary, last weekend, recognised that the removal of quota would result in greater volatility. He referred to Article 68 which was also raised during the earlier discussion and the possibility of availing of this article to secure insurance cover and thereby remove such volatility. He accepted, however, that without quota, markets would be more volatile. Will farmers be able to survive greater volatility?

World prices for dairy products have increased in recent times by up to 50%. New Zealand, a major exporter of dairy products, has an unregulated dairy sector and a cheaper way of producing products. The average farm gate price of milk in New Zealand in the past ten years was 17.9 cent per litre, whereas the average price in the European Union during the same period was 30.5 cent per litre. Glanbia, the largest milk processor in Ireland, paid an average price of 30.1 cent per litre in the past ten years.

We must consider the possible reduction in prices if milk quotas are abolished. The world market for dairy products is predicted to grow substantially. However, given the current economic climate, it is not certain these predictions will materialise. Only a small proportion — approximately 6% to 7% — of total dairy production is traded internationally. If quotas are removed, a 1% change in global demand or supply could affect the amount of product traded internationally by up to 17%. It could also result in changes in prices of between 50% and 75%. It is crucially important to understand this relationship. The spike in prices in 2007-08 clearly demonstrates this relationship but it should be noted that it only lasted for three months. It is vital, therefore, to understand what impact a 1% increase in production could have on the world market, in which only between 6% and 7% of dairy products are traded.

The current position of Ireland in not seeking the retention of milk quotas beyond 2015 is predicated on ever increasing world demand. It has never been certain that demand will increase and predictions are based on economic growth and increased demand for dairy products in China and other countries. We cannot rely on economic growth in such countries in the current global economic climate. With the easing of feed and, I hope, fertiliser prices, it is likely that any increase in demand will be met and the world market price will increase to approximately 25 cent per litre. The world price could spike at any point, as it did last year.

What will these developments mean for Irish dairy farmers? Teagasc has predicted that in 2017 the average milk price in Ireland will be 27 cent per litre. This does not take account of additional production arising from the abolition of milk quotas. Not a single report has concluded that the abolition of milk quotas will yield an increase in prices.

The total value of milk output in Ireland is approximately €1.7 billion, of which the farm income component is estimated to be €700 million. The processing sector which includes the value of milk purchased has an output of €2.9 billion. When the value added or the income generated in the processing sector is added to farm income, the dairy sector has a combined income generating capacity of €1.1 billion annually.

Let us consider the impact of a price cut which would definitely flow from quota abolition. In doing so, I will not take into account the additional costs of production, greenhouse gas emissions obligations or scaling up costs for the industry. If milk price were to decline from 33 cent per litre to 27 cent per litre, an unfortunate but likely scenario, it would result in an 18% reduction in the value of output which would be reflected in an income reduction of €306 million, representing a 44% reduction in farm incomes. We are told farmers should respond by way of increased production.

What increased production would be required to replace or offset this decline in income? The margin at farm level would fall to about 6 cent per litre when account is taken of the increased surge in the price of inputs. To produce an aggregate dairy farm income of €700 million, the current figure, a staggering 11.6 billion litres of milk would have to be produced in Ireland. As our current quota production is 5 billion litres, milk output would have to increase by 230% merely to recover the loss of income arising from price reductions. This is a nightmare scenario. Even if my figures are wrong by a margin of 50%, the calculations are still staggering and the level of expansion required would still be impossible to achieve, given the structural limitations at farm level and before taking account of the greenhouse gas limitations. Members will note I have not factored in a single euro for increased costs or extra capacity at either farm or processor level. The figures outlined show as complete nonsense what is being put forward about milk quotas and that extra milk output would save farmers when it would force down prices.

The ICMSA is part of the European Milk Board. It estimates that a price of 40 cent a litre is required to have a viable dairy herd of approximately 70 cows. That is not achievable on the prices available in the world market. Is it realistic to expect the world market price to be at 33 cent a litre which is far removed from what is required to earn an income from dairying? A price of 33 cent a litre would represent a permanent increase of 60% on the world market price. Such an increase would substantially, if not totally, dampen any sustainable increase in demand, especially as we move into more challenging economic times.

Milk production in Ireland would not cease if we were to adopt a New Zealand-type system, but we would move to having larger scale producers and milk production would be confined to the south east and less milk would be produced. I cannot over-emphasise this point. The removal of quotas would bring marked reductions in price and could reduce the level of production depending on the balance struck.

In the United Kingdom there is no quota — that has been the case for several years. One must ask why milk production has fallen there. The reason is a lack of profitability. If somebody were to suggest that by going down the same route as Britain we would survive in the world market, I would like him or her to show exactly how that would be done. We are at a crossroads and must examine what should be our policy. Reference has been made to the CAP health check and the WTO. Who knows how the dairy sector will emerge from the latter discussions or whether we will be turned into a sacrificial lamb in order to protect trade.

There is a requirement for the European Union to act immediately to provide a floor price for milk. That aid for private storage for butter be brought forward to the beginning of next year is an inadequate response. What is required is that the excess supply in the market be disposed of internally by subsidisation or exported with an export subsidy which is legally permissible under current WTO rules. The misguided policy of the Minister in seeking extra quota has substantially undermined his position in seeking immediate remedial action in terms of price support.

The EU member states seeking extra quota are, by and large, those with a milk deficit which hope milk output will increase to meet domestic demand. If that happens, the scope for increased market penetration in Europe by the Irish dairy industry will be constrained. Has the Minister or his advisers worked this out? Why, therefore, is Ireland in the extra quota camp when it will undermine our position in the EU marketplace? What the Minister is seeking could result in fewer opportunities in Europe, in virtually no increase in opportunities in the world market, and in difficulties in retaining our existing third country markets, all at a lower price.

Against this background, I set out the ICMSA policy which we have identified as containing five essential elements. The quota system should be modified, where necessary, to continue beyond 2015. Increases in quotas must be tightly linked with overall increased demand within the European Union and profitable exports to non-EU markets. An EU-wide superlevy system should be put in place in order that no EU dairy farmer would face a superlevy fine if EU total milk production was not in excess of the combined EU milk quota. The rate of superlevy fine should be substantially linked with market developments. In addition, the superlevy fine should be averaged over a three-year period so as to provide greater certainty in planning. The butterfat quota should be abolished as an integral part of justifying increased quotas. Market management must also include market price supports when needed, for example, butter intervention, export refunds, a calf milk replacer scheme and similar market support measures.

The challenge for the dairy industry and the Minister for Agriculture, Fisheries and Food lies not so much in securing an increased milk quota, regardless of the cost in terms of milk price, rather the challenge is to provide a solid opportunity to expand milk production in Ireland, while at least maintaining a profitable milk price. That, in essence, is the ICMSA policy objective.

I welcome Mr. O'Leary and his colleagues from the ICMSA and thank them for their presentation. It is an advantage to have the presentation at this meeting, given that also we met officials from the Department to discuss the CAP health check, as part of which these issues will be thrashed out and finalised. Time is of the essence. I accept that in informing the Department and the Minister on milk quota policy, the milk quota review group is the powerhouse. The Minister takes note of its broadly representative nature and the views expressed by it, although I acknowledge the ICMSA has consistently articulated a different view from that of the majority in the group.

Deputy O'Keeffe referred to the key issue, although I accept Mr. O'Driscoll's point about where we are at in the debate. The key is having a floor price so as to maintain a profitable milk price. In essence, that is what the ICMSA policy seeks to achieve.

Perhaps Mr. O'Leary or his colleagues might comment on the perceived incompatibility of articulating a request for an increased quota while simultaneously seeking market support measures. The reply should take account of where we are at in the global milk market where a price collapse is evident. That is happening at a time when the European Union is under quota. It cannot be said, therefore, that we are contributing to a glut in the market and that our increased production is driving the price down. Our production level is not impacting adversely on a market that is in freefall, which is important. In the context of quotas, the position of many farmers who are in contact with me on this issue is that, given the volatility, they want to be positioned to take advantage of the upturn in the market when it occurs. In 2007 there was a very favourable price, albeit matched on the other side of the balance sheet by rapidly rising input costs, particularly fertiliser costs. It is a question of farmers being in a position to take advantage. It is not as if one is obliged to produce more if quotas are increased. Farmers will be the best at managing their affairs to meet their financial circumstances, but it is a question of positioning them.

I am somewhat sceptical of Mr. O'Driscoll's predictions in respect of reports by FAPRI, the FAO and the OECD because none of them predicted the spike last year. If there is another price spike, many dairy farmers would be very annoyed if their hands were tied behind their backs and they were not in a position to jump on the bandwagon. One should bear in mind that they can tailor their production to suit at times when the price is not as rewarding. This is the context in which we must view all the proposals made.

The political wind is blowing against the ICMSA's position on milk quotas. However, I am glad we have heard an alternative view. How realistic is it to have adopted at the Council of Ministers a proposal that would result in the increasing of quotas or the maintenance of quotas after 2015? Can the floor price for milk be sustained if the Council of Ministers and CAP health check proposals are accepted as envisaged? In the context of opening the market, can a floor milk price be maintained both in the shorter term prior to final implementation of the proposals and in the longer term?

I accept the ICMSA proposal and do not see a great future in increasing the milk quota in the Irish context, both because of seasonality and the capital required to develop the industry to the desired level. I understand the sum of €100 million has been spent. The position of the industry across the world is precarious in that milk prices are expected to return to 24 cents per litre, or perhaps less, this year. Young people are aware of this.

The New Zealand industry produces 18 million tonnes of milk, while Ireland's industry produces 5.5 million tonnes. The Argentinians produce 14 million tonnes. I do not know the figure for the United States. Most of the produce is coming from the United States, which is affecting the milk industry. In the United Kingdom the milk industry has shifted from areas such as Cheshire to Scotland and others. There is as a result a shortfall in production in parts of the United Kingdom. The European Union should have a different policy on quotas. It should be possible to shift quotas throughout the Union, including between England and Ireland, rather than addressing the matter according to individual nations' circumstances.

Feed and fertiliser prices will come into line with global commodity market prices. We model ourselves on the industry in New Zealand, which can be very misleading because of its climate and low costs. The New Zealanders do not require the same infrastructure at farm level that we require in Ireland, including in the dairy industry. Theirs is a commodity-based industry, which will affect us.

In respect of the WTO talks, we all hear about emerging markets in countries such as China and the Far East. It is interesting, however, that these countries want to sell their products in the European market. We hear all about the market in China but it is ultimately not as lucrative as we are led to believe. I attended an open day in Moorepark last year and some of the delegates were in attendance representing their organisations. A few large farmers made the point on the platform that milk would become the new gold. It is not even silver now.

A number of people in Ireland are inclined to run the show. Irish farmers have been well served by the quota which has saved the family farm, the basis of the agricultural economy. If we tamper with this, we will have no milk and will have circumstances such as those that obtain in the United Kingdom where there are large-scale farms. We must be very careful, as I have told the Minister, in the presence of the Chairman.

I regard the industry in Ireland as having no diversification. Nestlé Rowntree had a fine chocolate crumb production facility in Mallow. I met the representatives of the company to make a very strong case for keeping the jobs in the area but the company moved to Girvan in Scotland. We do not know what happened in that case. This is an example of the decline in diversification in the dairy industry. The cheeses are practically all out of production, as are the brands. Those in Mitchelstown and Mallow, including Deputy Sherlock, whose father shared his views on this issue, will note we have destroyed the industry in the region for no reason. We got a fellow who we believed was an expert in dairying but he became a property developer and finished up on the rubble; that is where he is now. All we have is rubble and no dairy industry, only powder. I am telling the truth; I am just fed up of it. There is no control in the system. I know the person to whom I referred as "Jerry Rubble". He came from Brazil and has been a failure. He has destroyed the dairy industry. There was a production level of 200 million gallons and approximately 5,000 or 6,000 farmers who are now moving out of the business. There were approximately 3,000 other productive employees. This is what happened to the industry. The quota is to be increased, thus affecting farmers, and milk prices could fall to 17 cent per litre, given the global crisis.

I would like to hear the view of the ICMSA on from where the capital will be derived to buy the cattle to improve milk production and on how farm infrastructure will be improved. We will have more problems with the environment and pollution controls since most farmers are working at maximum capacity. Where will we find the few hundred million euro to process the milk arisng from the increase in quota, be it in respect of drying or otherwise? There is a problem in this regard. I admire the work of the dairy board, of which the ICMSA is greatly supportive. It has done great work but is attacked. There should be a more federal system in respect of the board rather than a big conglomeration. We know so much about Fonterra Co-operative Group Limited in New Zealand but not much about its financial status. I have read about it and a considerable issue arises in respect of it. The system is not as smooth as we are led to believe.

I thank Mr. O'Driscoll for his presentation. I agree with Deputy Creed — this does not often happen — that it is a good idea to present both sides of the argument today. This is important to us, despite the fact that I asked a question four times and still did not receive an answer. The delegation should be on this side of the table, not the other.

There is no doubt but that there is cause for worry. If the milk price fell by 6 cent per litre, there would be an income reduction of €306 million, a 44% reduction in farm incomes. These are frightening statistics. Something will have to be done because world market prices will obtain when the quota is abolished.

I agree that the ICMSA has some good suggestions, including that increased quotas should be tightly linked with overall increased demand within the European Union and profitable exports to non-EU markets. We should all strive to achieve this. It is a pity we do not have more time to debate the issue, as I understand we are tied for time. It was a good idea to hear both sides of the argument on the same day. Perhaps we should remember this for the future.

I welcome the ICMSA representatives. We are at the 11th hour with the CAP health check, on which decisions have been made. It is up to the Government to get what it can out of it.

There are openings for farmers with a growing demand for quality foods, particularly dairy products. The population will grow in the next 20 years which, in turn, will mean larger demand for food. While the abolition of the milk quota in 2015 has nothing to do with the health check, I am concerned it will affect milk prices. Some support mechanism must be put in place when the quota is removed. We can produce all the milk we like, but it is the price per litre that counts.

In New Zealand, with its unregulated dairy sector, a producer is paid 17.9 cent per litre, while in Ireland the price stands at 30.5 cent. That shows Irish producers could not compete in that market and that support mechanisms are needed. Last year the United States gave billions of dollars through various support mechanisms to its dairy farmers. I agree with doing away with quotas and allowing EU farmers to expand into other markets but with a support mechanism for a minimum fixed price to ensure a profit for the farmer.

It is ridiculous that Ireland paid a superlevy fine last year, while other member states could not fill their quotas. The European Union should be working as a bloc. Ireland should fill its quota within the Union because of the WTO negotiations. Any surplus could be divided among other member states.

The butterfat quota is outdated and should be abolished. The farmer should be paid on the price of milk per litre.

The most concerning fact I learned at this meeting is that after the ending of the milk quota in 2015, no plans will be in place. Plans need to be drawn up to address the issues that will arise when the quota is abolished.

Farmers have never been found wanting when it comes to production. However, if the bottom-line price for a product is too low, there is no point in being involved in it. Farmers are well educated and know their business inside out. The plans must be drawn up well ahead of 2015 if we want to keep farming alive and profitable. The dairy sector is not diversifying enough into other activities and products. Will Ireland fill its milk quota this year?

Mr. John O’Leary

Deputy O'Keeffe rightly has said that when there is an upturn, we should be ready for it. There was an upturn last year which lasted four months. There is no doubt there will be another upturn. As an organisation, we have consistently stated we would take increased quotas if the market would digest them. However, should there be an upturn, other countries will be better prepared to respond.

Why are we not the filling the quota this year? Last year the weather was favourable until the first day of December and feed was used to ensure the highest milk yield. This year, with the price of feed and this summer's weather conditions, any enthusiasm to increase milk yield has gone.

Profitability is also a problem. I am a farmer, not a politician. I cannot understand how the Government can ask Brussels for extra quotas, frontload them and then say the following day that it wants export refunds and subsidies to get rid of them. The European taxpayer will not pay for this. The one way to obtain support is to put a cap on production and respond to market demand. It must be remembered any change to the quota of 7% of total dairy production which is traded internationally can have a direct impact on our price. We would be fooling ourselves if we thought extra quotas were not going to have an impact on our price.

There was a spike in prices last year and I have said there will be further spikes. However, it takes longer than a month or two to obtain the highest milk yield from a cow. It is a process that can take up to years. We need a policy on which we can depend to ensure this. I heard earlier in the Dáil a Member saying it was not extra cows that we needed for higher yield when it could be knocked out of the existing herd. We have been doing that for the past 30 years. It is a slow and growing process. Farmers will not be found wanting in that process and will continue to do so.

We have raised the issue of costs of the dairy infrastructure at farmgate and co-operative level. We have not factored in the proposed cut in greenhouse emissions from the national herd, which is being argued by two Ministers. That will be our new quota, so to speak.

Then there is the cost of marketing the products.

Mr. John O’Leary

Last year some co-operative societies were looking for extra product. Some claimed they could have another 7% at peak production. We asked one co-op how it could double its production. It stated it would lift the shoulders. We must give it credit for thinking outside the box. Why then this year did it refuse to accept milk from other co-operatives at the shoulders? It was because it could not process and make a profit margin on it.

This is about the long-term delivery of a milk price. We cannot compete directly with New Zealand. Its producers have advantages with low cost bases, short winters and so forth which outstrip Ireland's. That was recognised 35 years ago by the European Economic Community.

The world dairy conference is taking place in Mexico at the moment. Anyone who has got feedback from Mexico will realise the position. There are 1,500 to 2,000 cows per herd there, and they pay their men $4 a day. If this Government can envisage us paying workers the equivalent of $4 or $5 a day, we might be able to compete. However, the way it will be across Europe — and the European Milk Board has recognised this — is that without 40 cent, the 70-cow or 80-cow farmer is lost. Every farmer is entitled to a good living from his cow herd and I just cannot put a figure on it, as it might depend on age. If it is a herd of between 60 and 100 cows, that has to return a good living. If the figure falls, the policy being pursued by the Government here in terms of scaling up will fall with it, If a living cannot be made from 70 cows, there is no point in going to 140 and having two men, or in expanding to 200 and having three. If the enterprise does not justify a one-man work unit, it will not pay in respect of a three-man unit.

Another thing that is against us which I have not touched on is land bases. It was mentioned earlier by a man on this side of the table that opportunities would be given to people to go into dairying. There were phone calls last year from people who wanted to go into dairying for one reason, namely, money. It was said before this meeting, however, that the units of between 300 and 500 or 600 will be the first to go. There are approximately 22,000 dairy farmers in this country. It is totally wrong of the Government and the Department to try to piggyback all the failures across other agricultural enterprises on those 22,000 dairy farmers. It will be the cause of a majority of the 22,000 being sunk and when they are gone, the rest will follow.

What we are seeking is a structured way to allow us to avail of export refunds and get internal aid to get our milk back into calf milk replacements so that we may win back markets. We will not get them on our own, and fighting to frontload milk quota increases is not the message the Government should be sending if we are looking for aid. As regards 2015, changes have been made before on how long milk quotas will last, and changes can be made again. We have to fight for what is best for us.

The former European Commissioner, Franz Fischler, said in Tipperary the last day that the countries which were looking for increased quotas were the majority bloc, and the reason was that they had domestic markets they were unable to fill. Britain is looking for it because it sees more milk quota means cheaper milk, which it does not have. Ireland is fooled into being in that camp and if we do not open our eyes now, this generation will be remembered and blamed for the fall of our dairy industry.

Mr. Ciarán Dolan

Following on from Mr. O'Leary, I want to respond to Deputy Sherlock's question. We have put forward facts for the committee and stake the association's reputation on them. We have admitted readily that some of them have a wide margin of error attached to them, perhaps by as much as 50%. Perhaps it is unfair that we are coming in after our colleagues from the Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food. I would much prefer if they were here to listen to our comments so that we do not criticise them in their absence. I am fully aware that we are on the record.

To some extent, the ICMSA as an organisation has been held up to ridicule in the recent past for having taken what might be termed a conservative approach on the quota question. The arguments marshalled against us have been incomplete. They are based on misconception, hope and wish lists. I do not mind being confronted with this in the political domain because that is where we operate as lobbyists, but we have also been confronted on this by paid public servants. I am not talking about civil servants but rather people in Teagasc. We are very pleased for the opportunity today to state our position to the committee for the record.

As for the conflict concerning supports and the markets, I believe Deputy Sherlock asked our colleagues in the Department to define what they meant by market support mechanisms, as this term had been used on three occasions. Market support mechanisms are, first of all, discretionary from the Commission's viewpoint, rather than being mandatory as they are at the moment. They are pitched at the level of world prices, roughly at or below 21 cent per litre. Historically, with few exceptions by and large, and also unfortunately, Irish milk prices have been determined by intervention prices. We are saying that world prices will dominate the milk scene in Ireland more than in any other member state. We have heard in the past 48 hours from the EC directorate general of trade that the Doha round may again be put on the agenda and that a deal may be done. If it is, it will reduce the tariff protection in the dairy sector from about 18 cent down to 3 cent per litre and, in effect, will give us a world price situation. All of us should be honest with farmers in the dairy industry and say that if quotas are abolished in 2015, we should start gearing up the dairy sector rapidly towards a New Zealand-type situation where more production is required with less income being generated. We must be honest about this, however.

We have one message to put to the committee, and not in a confrontational sense: there can either be more quota or an unregulated sector with no quota but there cannot be both. One cannot have a price support mechanism whereby, as Mr. O'Leary said, the European taxpayer takes product into intervention or exports it with a subsidy. Those days are gone. As for the shock we have all received with the credit crunch in financial services, perhaps a trend is developing to the effect that unregulated markets will not necessarily deliver welfare in the long-term. If one takes production in Westphalia, in Germany, it is greater than in New Zealand. We attended a meeting where there were 4,000 dairy farmers in one hall who were all opposed to an abolition of the quota system and in fact were looking for a more rigid system. At least we can put down some firm foundations for the future if they are based on upfront analysis. We are not claiming to have a unique approach.

We very much appreciate the committee's rescheduling of its agenda today to accommodate us and we have put forward a number of items for its consideration. The onus is on people who may wish to continue seeking extra quota to address these matters or at least modify their position.

Mr. John Enright

A question was asked about the post-2015 situation. We have asked this of the Department on many occasions and the response is that post-2015, we are on our own. Up to now that is the answer we have been getting. I will leave it at that.

Is it agreed the clerk of the committee will report to the Minister and the Department on the discussion that took place here today? Agreed. On behalf of the committee I thank Mr. O'Leary, Mr. Dolan and Mr. Enright for their informative presentation and for answering the questions raised. I apologise again for the meeting's delay but if the ICMSA wants to come in to discuss this or any other matters in the coming months, it is more than welcome. We will ensure that the next day the delegates come, they will be on their own.

Mr. Ciarán Dolan

Perhaps I could ask the Chairman to circulate the presentation to the members of the committee.

That is grand.

The joint committee adjourned at 2.10 p.m. until 11 a.m. on Wednesday, 26 November 2008.
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