The idea behind this was conceived when I was addressing the Institute of European Affairs. I had previously delivered versions of the same speech at the annual conference of Engineers Ireland and many other fora. The content of the speech in question focused on where Ireland is going in an energy sense and how blessed we are to be in the position we currently occupy, particularly in the context of the advent of peak oil production and the decline of fossil fuels.
The basis of my submission to the sub-committee is that if one considers where we are heading in an energy sense, this might help define the energy enterprises that it might be reasonable to pursue. I will comment on the bigger picture and Dr. Mac Artáin will refer to the matters that are particularly relevant to the sub-committee's concerns.
We live in a world that is using up its store of fossil fuels. We have more or less reached peak oil production and the use of oil will begin to decrease in the future. If one considers the fossil fuel era in the context of human civilisation, one realises that it was extremely brief. Some 1,000 years from now people will look back and ask what it was like to use fossil fuels and will state that it must have been an interesting period.
As with other areas of society, we are clearly heading towards a future in which sustainable energy is central. In my opinion, the area of energy is much easier to deal with than some of those other areas. My submission refers to the various energy technologies that are available and generally states that we must use them all. We must ask ourselves, however, what will be the endgame. Will it be coal, of which there is a great deal in existence? Obviously we cannot use coal in the long term but in the transition period we will be obliged to do so. We will not be able to use nuclear power in the long term either because nuclear fission consumes uranium and there will be a peak in the use of uranium unless we can arrive at some other clever way of generating nuclear power. For the foreseeable future, nuclear power is not a sustainable energy technology. Other difficulties arise with it in the Irish context, namely, because its use is illegal.
When one considers renewables, one comes to the conclusion that they are not without their problems. Renewable sources of energy are variable in nature and serious questions arise with regard to how we match their use to our demand. There is then the question of costs.
I like to stand back from the whole thing and ask what we will have in a thousand years from now. The only answer to that is renewable energy. I am not being biased here. I would love for somebody to say to me, "Oh no, we will have X" and I would love to hear about it. Therefore, if we need to make our energy plans now for a post-fossil fuel era, as we do, the only thing we know of for energy sustainability is renewable energy. During the transition, we are going to pull out all the stops and use everything we have.
It is just a question of time before we move into the renewable energy future. Therefore, it is all about timing in terms of renewable energy enterprises. If we consider the size of the energy industry worldwide, it is unbelievably big. It is a massive, multi-trillion dollar industry. Currently, it is largely based on fossil fuels, but in a few centuries it will be based on renewable energy. Let us get a piece of that action.
What enterprises should be considered? I am aware of the good report produced — in which this committee had a role — on the policy implications and enterprise opportunities for the environmental goods and services sector on the island of Ireland. That report refers to renewable energy. I would like to expand briefly on my perspective of the kind of opportunities that exist generally for renewable energy in Ireland, given it will be such a significant industry in due course.
First, I would look at wind energy. I have been involved with wind energy since 1978 and have something of a perspective on it. Ireland has a huge wind resource. It is by far the biggest renewable energy resource we have and could produce approximately ten times our energy needs, not just our electricity needs, but energy needs. We are blessed by this and it is nothing but good news. Wind has been developed technologically to a large scale and is cost effective. If people want to buy a wind turbine, they will discover nobody wants to sell them just one. To place an order, people need to order more than one, but then will not get them for two or three years. To be in the large wind turbine business is a good thing.
It is correct that there is probably no place in Ireland, in terms of large wind technology, that is orientated towards large scale engineering works. However, an opportunity does exist for small and medium scale wind energy. Currently, large wind is economic. As energy prices rise, which they will do due to normal supply and demand requirements, small and medium-sized wind turbines in areas with good winds will begin to make sense. If we look at recent data published by the British Wind Energy Association, we see the year on year increase in the production and sales of small wind is phenomenal in percentage terms. That has only just begun. This is, therefore, an opportunity for us. We have great winds and we have the opportunity to develop expertise in the design and manufacture of wind turbines.
Where I work we have a lot of ideas and some patents and I am sure there is other brain power that can be applied to the area of small and medium-size wind. We have our own large wind turbine on our campus. The use of a wind turbine to provide local energy in industrial facilities requires particular expertise. I am aware of three companies in Ireland whose sole business this is. This is, therefore, an enterprise area. Small and medium size wind has a great future.
Ireland has some excellent research capability with regard to wave energy. We do not work on wave energy where we are, although there are some patents on the way. Good work is being done in the area and there is a future in the industry for Ireland. We have an excellent resource that can roughly provide our national energy needs, so it is an order of magnitude less than wind, but still very large.
Bio-energy is the third area and Dr. Mac Artáin will speak more about that as he is our bio-energy expert. This area is similar in magnitude and there are various bio-technologies, of which I am sure the committee is aware, we can apply in Ireland, because things grow very well here.
Other areas worthy of consideration for enterprise would be ones such as heat pumps. Glen Dimplex produces heat pumps and other companies also design pumps. Pumps are particularly applicable in Ireland where we have moderate ambient temperatures in the winter. Most of our renewable energy will come in the form of electricity so the answer to how to turn that into heat is by using a heat pump. Therefore, heat pumps will be of huge significance in the future and this is another area on which the committee could focus. Heat pumps are mentioned in the report, as are wind, wave and bio-energy. However, the report did not have the same take on wind as I have.
The future of transport in Ireland is electric. There are some electric vehicles around. At Dundalk IT what electricity does not come from our wind turbine comes from Airtricity, so when we charge our Berlingo van and drive it around, it is 100% emission free transport. We can only go 50 mph, but that will improve with time as the technology improves. Electric vehicles will be a big deal.
Grid innovation in renewables is another enterprise area. Excellent work has been done at UCD in this area and an excellent report issued, from a consortium of folks, including the Danish national lab, that forms the foundation of the recent goal to attain 40% renewable electricity by 2020. This study shows it is technically reasonable to aspire to this. There is good expertise in that area in Ireland and this should be leveraged in a commercial way.
The final area I wish to mention is electricity storage. I have a bias towards this. If we have a variable source of and demand for energy and the two do not match in time, we need a buffer in the middle. Electricity storage will be a huge deal in renewably powered grids. We are returning home today to open tenders for a very large battery, such that Dundalk IT will have one of the few large scale wind storage test-research facilities in the world. That should be installed, God willing, and if the bids are reasonable, part way through next year. There are plenty of moves going on in the area of electricity storage and Ireland could, potentially, do commercial business in that area.
In summary, it is impossible for us to imagine how big the renewable energy business will be in the future. I cannot even imagine how big the fossil fuel energy business is currently, but that is how big renewable energy will be. Thinking in those terms will help motivate us to hitch our wagon to a star, as Ben Franklin said, or think big in this area.