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Joint Committee on European Union Affairs díospóireacht -
Wednesday, 21 Jun 2023

EU Security and Defence Policy: Discussion

On behalf of the committee, I welcome Mr. Eoin Micheál McNamara from the Finnish Institute of International Affairs, and Dr. Scott Fitzsimmons from the University of Limerick. I thank them both for being here. At today's meeting, we will consider EU defence and security policy.

Before we begin, I will read a note on privilege. All witnesses are reminded of the long-standing parliamentary practice that they should not criticise or make charges against any person or entity by name or in such a way as to make him or her identifiable or otherwise engage in speech that might be regarded as damaging to the good name of a person or entity. Therefore, if their statements are potentially defamatory in relation to an identifiable person or entity, they will be directed to discontinue their remarks. It is imperative that they comply with any such direction. Members are reminded of the long-standing parliamentary practice to the effect that they should not comment on, criticise or make charges against a person outside of the Houses or an official either by name or in such a way as to make him or her identifiable. I also remind members of the constitutional requirement that they must be physically present within the confines of the Leinster House complex in order to participate in public meetings. I will not permit a member to participate where he or she is not adhering to this requirement. Therefore, any member who attempts to participate from outside the precincts will be asked to leave the meeting. In this regard, I ask any member participating via MS Teams to confirm he or she is on the grounds of the Leinster House campus prior to making a contribution.

With that done, we are in a position to commence our discussion. First, I will invite Mr. McNamara to make his opening statement. I will then call Dr. Fitzsimmons to make his opening remarks, following which we will have engagement and a question and answer session with members.

Mr. Eoin Micheál McNamara

I often come with more rather than less, so I might condense what I have to say slightly. It is a great honour for me and my family here in Ireland to speak at the Joint Oireachtas Committee on European Affairs today. I am a research fellow at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs, FIIA, in Helsinki. FIIA is an academically independent and non-partisan research institute supported by the Parliament of Finland, the Eduskunta, to inform decision-making in Finland, in the EU, and globally. As an internationally focused researcher from Ireland, I was honoured to have my work on security policy recognised when I was awarded a visiting research fellowship at FIIA in 2021-22. I returned to FIIA thereafter as a research fellow working on the Horizon Europe Reignite Multilateralism via Technology, REMIT, project in March 2023. My previous professional experience came in neighbouring Estonia through my soon forthcoming PhD research on the International Security Assistance Force, ISAF, in Afghanistan at the University of Tartu, where I also concurrently taught and published on a range of security policy issues between 2013 and 2020.

While I only started working in Helsinki in late 2021, I have greatly benefited from many fruitful collaborations with security researchers in Finland since 2013. I have published analysis and contributed to commentary on Nordic-Baltic security over the course of my early career. I have occasionally attempted to highlight the strategic trajectories of these neighbouring European states here in Ireland. In 2017, I made a presentation at the Royal Irish Academy, followed by the publication of my article, Between Trump’s America and Putin’s Russia: Nordic-Baltic Security Relations Amid Transatlantic Drift, in the academy’s peer-reviewed journal, Irish Studies in International Affairs. I am glad to say that much of the transatlantic drift that I discussed in that article has since eased under US President Joe Biden. Russia’s escalated aggression in Ukraine since February 2022 has rendered a stronger transatlantic link vital for security in Europe as most western states now adapt their strategic outlooks. Finland, the country where I live and work, has been a prominent example of this adaptation, switching from a non-aligned posture to become a NATO member in April 2023.

I have been requested to give some comparative and contrasting insights on Finland’s security policy development and how this might inform Ireland’s current security debate. Briefly sharing some of my experiences as an Irish citizen and as a security researcher working in northern Europe might help to start this discussion. I graduated from University College Dublin, UCD, in 2009, just as the Irish banking crisis began to bite and when many Irish graduates were emigrating. Events of this time have left some lasting influences on me. Perhaps the most important lesson I learned from this period in Ireland was that academic expertise, when effectively communicated, can be crucial to inform and advise prudent public policy decisions and to provide warning about impending policy mistakes. I am sure committee members remember the few academic economists who tried to publicly sound an early warning before 2008 as Ireland’s property bubble cascaded out of control. Direct policy input from academic economists was later important in Ireland’s economic recovery. When Ireland recently faced the global Covid-19 pandemic, academic epidemiologists were vital to help the wider population to understand the health risks at stake and to assist the Government’s policy response. The Covid crisis faded, only to give way to a major security crisis in Europe ignited by further Russian aggression. I hope, therefore, that evidence-based and informed perspectives on the future of Irish security policy from the academic community will now be encouraged and embraced by the Irish political system and Civil Service. In my view, both have sometimes been unnecessarily tentative to engage in the past, especially when compared with policy systems in other EU countries.

Wars usually have many far-reaching tentacles, and the war for Ukraine combining with a wider deterioration in the global security environment has brought Ireland’s security policy into focus like few other times in its independent history. Disputes over Northern Ireland aside, Ireland has been fortunate to have a democratic neighbour, the United Kingdom, that does not resort to threats of serious military or economic coercion when trying to settle political problems. Several EU member states are not as fortunate. Finland shares a 1,340 km border with Russia, a neighbour with which it has endured troubled relations since it declared its independence in 1917. Finland experienced a civil war in 1918 when Red Finland, supported by the Bolsheviks, attempted to subvert the new state. The Second World War essentially imposed three painful wars on Finland. After 1945, Finnish leaders found a path to maintain independence, but at the price of a neutrality known colloquially as Finlandisation until the end of the Cold War. Finland could develop as a liberal democracy and a market economy, but it was forced to steer clear of western institutions like the EEC and NATO, while political, societal and media self-censorship was endured to stave off aggression from its superpower neighbour, the Soviet Union.

Contrasting with Irish experience, Finnish neutrality was an imposed necessity that obstructed its engagement with the democratic western world. This neutrality was perceived to include political and economic as well as military components. Thus, when Finland joined the EU in 1995, it changed its strategic outlook from neutral to militarily non-aligned and politically aligned with the EU. This is another curious contrast with Ireland, which joined the EU in 1973 but still uses the term "neutral" to guide foreign policy discourse. I have always been impressed by how deeply Finnish decision-makers understand the wider European and transatlantic strategic balance. Most prominently explained by the current President of Finland, Sauli Niinistö, Finland retained military non-alignment between 1995 and its application for NATO membership in 2022 through its own will.

This was based on the belief that Finnish non-alignment could assist to stabilise the security situation in northern Europe.

By choosing not to join NATO immediately after the Cold War, Finland never left itself naïvely exposed. Conscription was retained and most Finns enthusiastically undertake their national service. This means that for a small nation of 5.5 million people, Finland can rapidly mobilise 280,000 personnel to defend its territory should a crisis develop. Its military strength when its reserve is fully mobilised stands at approximately 900,000 personnel. This system supports one of the strongest artillery defences in Europe. Finland has a formidable air force and a navy effective to patrol and defend the southern Baltic. It is a world leader in cyberdefence policy. However, at a regional level, despite this extensive independent defence posture, and while remaining outside NATO until recently, Finnish leaders still saw post-Cold War defence co-operation with various actors including with NATO; within the EU; through Nordic Defence Cooperation, NORDEFCO; bilaterally with Sweden and the US; and through the UK-led multinational joint expeditionary force as vital to advantage its armed forces.

Despite not joining NATO until 2023, few Finnish policymakers saw NATO’s wider role as bad or dangerous, and most recognised NATO’s importance for security in Europe. NATO enlargements in the neighbouring Baltic and central and eastern European regions after 1995 were perceived from Helsinki as further securing democratic stability. These NATO enlargements finally freed many smaller European states from long periods of imperial or authoritarian strife imposed by stronger powers. Globally, Finland has a similar tradition in contributing positively to UN peacekeeping, peace-mediation and international development to Ireland, and, in my opinion, it outperforms Ireland in many aspects related to these areas.

Finland’s social well-being and economic prosperity rest on a “comprehensive security” concept emphasising the importance of combined civilian and military components. Together with national defence, this concept emphasises strong social solidarity, cybersecurity and repulsion of propaganda interference. I often read some Irish politicians and activists criticising those in Ireland and in Europe who wish to see wider development of similar concepts to better protect our collective social values and our economic prosperity as somehow encouraging a regressive militarism. Finland’s experience strongly underlines that these arguments are well wide of the mark. Finland takes its security seriously while also being one of the most stable, most peaceful, most free, most equal and most prosperous nations on earth. Its comprehensive security system provides an important basis for these to flourish. This Finnish example should be pertinently remembered as we now try to strengthen our own national security in Ireland.

It still must be importantly clarified that Finland faces a different geopolitical threat and environment from Ireland. Ireland does not need conscription or the same land force as Finland, but Ireland’s Permanent Defence Forces and Reserve Defence Forces have been badly run down over recent decades. Ireland has been geopolitically sheltered for much of its independent history. As a society, Irish society is not used to realising and countering security threats related to great power competition in the same way that Finnish society is. However, Ireland’s economic transformation has increased its prominence in the global geopolitical pecking order. Ireland is now a central part of the western political and economic system and thus an attractive target for states seeking to disrupt and challenge western power and democratic order through hybrid means, be it through cyberattacks, economic blackmail, clandestine espionage subversion or military brinkmanship in airspace or maritime zones.

Ireland must strengthen its national security across both civilian and military areas to effectively counter hybrid threats. Reform of the Defence Forces is an indispensable pillar in this process. Irish governments and wider society must better recognise the immense value that the Defence Forces bring and must invest accordingly. Even though the challenges in defence reform facing Ireland are stark, there is little alternative but to see the Defence Forces as ever more vital to protect Ireland’s hard-won sovereignty, social progress and economic prosperity when the global security situation fragments into more intense great power competition and conflict. I thank the Cathaoirleach and the committee.

I thank Mr McNamara very much. I now call Dr. Fitzsimmons for his contribution, please.

Dr. Scott Fitzsimmons

I thank the Cathaoirleach very much. I appreciate the invitation to me to speak to the committee on the subject of EU defence and security. I am a senior lecturer at the University of Limerick. Although I was born in Canada, where the accent comes from, I consider Ireland my home. I am proud to be an Irish citizen. For almost 20 years, I have been undertaking research on military culture, the behaviour of armed forces and foreign policy decision-making. My comments today focus on Irish foreign and defence policy in the context of the contemporary European defence and security environment.

The ongoing Russian invasion and occupation of Ukraine highlights the longstanding threat that Russia poses to every European country. This threat is compounded by the fact that one of the two major political parties in the United States has weakened its commitment to defend Europe from external aggression. Likewise, in the wake of Brexit, the United Kingdom has also opted to stand outside of formal EU defence planning. At the same time, due to the presence of considerable critical infrastructure on or near Irish territory, Ireland now bears outsized importance as an economic and strategic focal point in Europe. This makes it both a critical asset to other western countries and an attractive target to external aggressors. Approximately three quarters of the undersea data cables linking Europe with North America pass within, through or near Irish waters. In addition, Ireland could soon host over 100 large data centres representing about 30% of such facilities in Europe. Moreover, Shannon Airport is a key component of the transatlantic air bridge linking Europe with Canada and the United States. In the event of a general war in Europe, it would be essential to European defence and reconstruction. These assets, when combined with Ireland’s geographic position as the northwest border of the EU, make Ireland especially vulnerable to maritime and aerial threats emanating from the North Atlantic.

Even if an external aggressor lacks a reason to fear, distrust or hate Ireland, it will deem Ireland’s economic and strategic infrastructure to be critical targets in a campaign to undermine the security and defence of other EU member countries. In other words, any external aggressor that wants to seriously harm the EU may try to harm Ireland. These are compelling reasons for Ireland to bolster its capacity and willingness to support European common defence alongside our EU allies. I encourage our Government to reconsider its modest approach to defence spending, which is guided by the level of ambition, LOA, 2 proposal contained in the 2022 Report of the Commission on the Defence Forces. Our Government should, instead, adopt an approach closer to the more ambitious LOA 3 proposal. This will allow it to develop and maintain significant enhancements in select areas that are vital to protecting our critical infrastructure from external attacks. These enhancements would include bolstering our capacity to undertake anti-submarine defence, air and maritime surveillance, tactical air mobility, air defence, defensive anti-tank warfare, and cybersecurity operations. Our Government has already demonstrated its recognition of the importance of some of these enhancements through its participation in multiple EU-based Permanent Structured Cooperation, PESCO, projects. However, I encourage our Government to provide the stable, long-term funding required to implement these and other enhancements through the acquisition of new equipment and technologies, such as, for example, jet fighter aircraft, remotely operated underwater vehicles and advanced radar. Attracting and retaining qualified personnel to operate and maintain these assets will also be critical.

I also encourage our Government to reconsider its approach to military alignment. Although senior politicians have publicly stated that Ireland is not politically neutral, they still maintain that our country is militarily neutral. The former claim is correct but the latter does not reflect the reality of contemporary Irish foreign and defence policy. A more accurate description of Ireland’s approach to international defence and security, and one that is reflected in Article 42.7 of the Lisbon Treaty, is what I call “one-sided alignment.” Ireland operates on the expectation that our EU allies, as well as the United Kingdom, will assist us in the event that we are attacked by an external aggressor; however, we will not reciprocate. This is not military neutrality; it is free-riding off other countries who will sacrifice for us even if we will not commit to do the same for them. To live up to our duties as a member of the EU, we should adopt a conventional approach to military alignment and pledge to use force in defence of our EU allies, when necessary.

In order to ensure Ireland can act when it deems necessary to assist in the defence and security of its EU allies, I encourage our Government to replace the triple lock, which requires the extraordinary approval of not just the Government and the Dáil but also the UN to deploy more than 12 military personnel outside our borders. The permanent members of the UN Security Council include countries that pose potent threats to ourselves and the rest of the EU. These countries should not be allowed to exercise a veto over our ability to help to defend Europe. As a sovereign, democratic country, Ireland can trust itself to make responsible decisions about the use of force outside its borders based on a legal requirement that such a decision receives the support of both our Government and a majority of the Members of the Dáil.

I will conclude by saying that on the issue of European defence and security, Ireland stands at a crossroads.

We can pretend that we can stand apart from the rest of the EU on this issue or we can make the political and resource commitments required for Ireland to finally share its mutual responsibility that all EU members share to uphold the defence and security of Europe.

I thank both of our guests. Some of the experts we have had before us were sometimes not very direct or clear but I cannot say that is true of both presentations today. Neither of our experts minced their words. They were very direct which is very helpful to us in terms of our interaction. I was interested in Mr. McNamara's comment on experts and our experience with the economic crash. As somebody who was involved in trying to fix things after that, I can say that not all experts were correct. While I do not share Mr. Michael Gove's view of experts when he said that people were fed up with experts who frequently get it wrong, a lot of experts do. One can get expert views to coincide with whatever perspective one has.

To deal with specifics, I will pose a question to Mr. McNamara first on the Finnish experience. Most of us would view Ireland and Finland as very different in terms of the security threat we face because Finland has the longest land border with Russia of any European country. Certainly, with the experience of Putin expansionism and his declared threats, there is a very real and substantial threat to the sovereignty and integrity of Finland. That is not true of Ireland. I would be interested in Mr. McNamara's view on that, as a comparison.

I will now turn to his view of building Ireland's defence capacity. After the report of the Commission on the Defence Forces was published, there was a consensus, as far as I could see - I stayed for the debate in the Dáil and contributed to it - across all political parties that we needed to up our game in terms of expenditure. However, that was perceived by many as a completely separate issue from the question of whether we should be part of some external alliance as well. The vindication of our own independent sovereignty requires us to know who is in our air space or travelling through our waters but that is a completely separate issue. I am interested in hearing the views of both of our contributors on increasing our capacity to defend ourselves as an issue that is separate and distinct from joining some military alliance.

On that issue, my final question relates to the LOA. Dr. Fitzsimmons talked in terms of LOA 3 being what is required. Most people who spoke in the Dáil debate talked in a consensus way of LOA 2. That would increase our expenditure from roughly €1 billion to €1.5 billion per annum whereas LOA 3 would triple our expenditure to €3 billion per annum. Maybe it is my training with the then Department of Public Expenditure and Reform, but for any Department to look for a tripling of its expenditure would be quite extraordinary. Even at that, we would not be able to do all the things that Dr. Fitzsimmons set out, like producing fighter jets. Countries like the Czech Republic lease fighter jets and I suppose that is within our capacity. Realistically, we are not going to be in a position to be able to do all the things that Dr. Fitzsimmons set out as a requirement for us and be in any way within the parameters of acceptable expenditure. I listened to the report of the Central Bank this morning which said that the Government must stay within its 5% expenditure ceiling. I would be interested in hearing our guests' views on those points.

Mr. Eoin Micheál McNamara

To address the Deputy's first point, the Taoiseach, Deputy Varadkar, had a good argument on this a few weeks ago. I remember tweeting it because he framed it very well. On the question of Ireland vis-à-vis Finland, the answer is both "Yes" and "No". As I mentioned, Finland has a very strong security system that can deter but Ukraine flipped a switch. Finland essentially had what was called a deterrence by denial system, a deterrence by punishment system or maybe a combination of both. Essentially, it projected that if the Russians came in, the Finns would create a whole lot of pain for Russia and therefore, the Russians do not want to come in. The message was, "Stay out, do not encroach militarily on our territory". That was the signalling of the Finnish deterrence. What we have seen in Ukraine, in cities like Bucha, Irpin, Mariupol, Nikolaev, Kherson and Bakhmut - the list goes on and on - is that the Ukrainian military has inflicted a lot of punishment and pain for what Russia has done but some Ukrainian cities have been levelled to the ground, a lot of its territory has been taken and an immeasurable number of atrocities have occurred on its territory. That mix of deterrence by denial and deterrence by punishment is not a scenario that Finland wants to see itself in now or in the future. If one knows Nordic societies like I have come to know them, one knows that they are all about sustainability, social development and locking down their prosperity and their social model over the long term. Nordic societies are always thinking about the future. Maybe it is useful to think about the Norwegian case in this regard. The Norwegians have a sovereign wealth fund and they are always thinking about the future with their oil money. The Norwegians believe in saving for the rainy day and saving to boost their prosperity. The Finns think about this too, maybe not in terms of their financial assets but in terms of their security. Joining NATO would lock down their security over the long term. At the moment Russia is throwing so many military resources into the war in Ukraine that it cannot threaten anyone else for another two or three years. We do not know what is going to happen over the medium term with Russia or what sort of regime is going to be in place there. The likelihood is that hostility will prevail, no matter the outcome of the war in Ukraine. Reducing uncertainty was the logic behind Finland's entry to NATO, despite its very strong independent posture.

Here in Ireland, and the Taoiseach has said this, we cannot keep thinking in terms of land threats. That is a very basic way to think and is not a way of thinking that wholly fits the current strategic environment we face. Of course Finland has a far greater land threat than Ireland. It has a large border with Russia whereas Ireland is an island but Russia can still project power here. It can do it in the airspace and we have seen this already. One of the concerns that has been most loudly raised, and I have been reading the documents on this, was by the Irish Aviation Authority, IAA. The IAA's job is to look after civilian aviation safety. It has raised a concern that Ireland does not have intercept capacity, that Russian jets can fly dark with their transponders off and that there can be near misses. There have been near misses over the Baltic Sea in the past. A civilian jet flying between Copenhagen and Rome, I believe, nearly collided with a Russian jet that civilian radar could not see. At the moment Ireland does not have primary radar so we cannot see such jets. However, it is included under LOA 2 so it is forthcoming. The threat is also out at sea to electricity supply lines and undersea telecommunications infrastructure, which are very vulnerable. We see how Russia can project power there. There was very good reporting by the four Nordic broadcasters on how Russian vessels, under the cover of being business or research vessels, as well as military vessels, are manoeuvring to disrupt that infrastructure. Ireland's prosperity and reputation rests on the safety and security of that infrastructure.

Right now, and it has been said before, we do not have the capabilities to protect that infrastructure. We need to bridge that gap in different ways.

On the subject of joining a military alliance, this is an interesting and controversial question. As I flew here from Helsinki yesterday, I read up on this matter and followed the debate on it. That is a long way off. I am a democrat, and that is a democratic decision for the Irish people. As I have seen in northern Europe, Sweden and Finland, people can change their minds and can weigh up the strategic circumstances. We need to invest primarily in our independent defence capacity. We are not a member of a strong military alliance. That must come first. Nevertheless - and I mentioned this in my opening statement - we have seen with Sweden, which is another neutral country, that even after the geopolitical constraints of the Cold War were lifted, it still wanted to remain outside NATO. It wanted to remain outside the military alliance. Yet, it wanted to keep its armed forces sharp and effective. Armed forces have to train together, pass on knowledge and techniques, use equipment and learn from each other. Finland and Sweden, despite saying outside of NATO, co-operated in NORDEFCO. They co-operated with different EU and NATO initiatives. They had enhanced opportunities in partnerships. We can do that through the Partnership for Peace as well.

Independent defence capacities should come first, but co-operation is also vital to help us shut down gaps in our strategic environment and keep our Defence Forces sharp. It is not a matter of a linear choice; it is a combination of the two.

Dr. Scott Fitzsimmons

Deputy Howlin asked a variety of really interesting questions. I thank him very much for them. The first question that was posed to both of us, if I recall correctly, was that relating to defence spending for Ireland versus being part of an alliance. They can be treated as separate issues in the sense that regardless of whether Ireland would seriously consider making a formal commitment to being part of an alliance, whether this is through purely sticking with the European Union in a common defence relationship or joining NATO, it needs to decide what it wants to do in terms of tackling defence and security issues. Part of that set of decisions relates to how much it wants to spend on national defence.

I stated earlier that any discussion of changing our alignment policy should happen after we decide how much we want to do and what we want to do as a country in terms of defence and security. What tasks are beyond what we would like to do? What sets of tasks are within the realm of possibility for us, as a country? Then, we can take that knowledge and have an informed discussion with potential allies. We can say "Here is how we feel we would slot into these long-standing agreements". Unless we have the first part of the debate beforehand, we are more likely to sign up to things that we might not ultimately be comfortable with.

In the context of how much we should spend, I should perhaps have clarified that while I would like to see a considerable increase in defence spending, I do not expect and do not encourage that to happen immediately. This is because whenever any organisation is provided with a considerable increase in resources, it will very likely not know what to do with all those resources in the short term. For example, if an organisation is given an annual budget that is suddenly three times the level of what it is accustomed to, it will very likely be tempted to just spend the money as quickly as it can. There is a sort of a general bureaucratic incentive there, because if you do not spend the money, then it looks like you do not need it. Then, next year, your allocation is likely to be cut. A gradual build-up over the course of a decade or more would be my preferred approach.

When it comes to questions such as the kind of equipment to purchase, including jet fighter aircraft, we must consider whether we should purchase or lease. It is great that the Deputy brought up the example of leasing aircraft. It is not like the question of going to buy a car. A car is a fairly sizeable purchase for most people, but it is not a multi-decade commitment, like perhaps purchasing a fleet of fighter planes or a fleet of more capable ships would be, given all the maintenance contracts and things that go with that. Therefore, going slowly and being incremental is the best approach for us as a country as we move towards greater defence spending.

Likewise, if and when we increase the size of our Defence Forces, I would say as a general target we should have 10,000 people in the Army and approximately 1,500 in our Naval Service and Air Corps. That would be a reasonable target and would sum to 13,000 total, plus the Reserve Defence Force. That should and will inevitably happen slowly. New recruiting campaigns need to be designed so they are attractive to contemporary Irish men and women. Right now we are finding that a career in our armed forces is not particularly attractive because it is difficult to recruit in the first place and because people are leaving much earlier than we would like. We need to figure out the right set of incentives, many of which will simply be in the form of greater compensation and benefits for people to consider this as a career. That is the only way we will be able to grow the Defence Forces.

There is a question as to whether we can afford any of this. In some ways, that is beyond my area of expertise, because it comes down to the finances of the Government. Defence spending is just one of many critically important areas. We have a variety of domestic issue areas for which I think an equally strong case can be made because they are deserving of increased funding. With this being said, every month or so reports appear that say that we are collecting more taxes than ever and that we are going to enjoy considerable surpluses. While I would always favour spending our money responsibly, it seems like we are doing better at least for the moment and will do for the foreseeable future than we have done for some time. This is a more opportune time than perhaps any other during the past 15 years or so to consider major new commitments.

All of this is to ensure that Ireland can do two fundamental things, the first of which is to deter attacks against us and make ourselves seem too difficult to attack. This is somewhat like the Finnish approach, although I do not think we necessarily need to spend as much as Finland has done historically. I do not think the threat to Ireland is equal to the threat to Finland. Russia poses a particular threat to Ireland and could act on the potential to attack us at fairly short notice. Yet, luckily, we do not share a border with Russia. That is one of the benefits of being an island nation. Again, I still feel we need to be able to deter attacks against us.

Even though our alliance commitments are quite one-sided, I do feel we can count on the UK, the European Union and, quite possibly, the United States and Canada to defend us in the event that we were attacked. What Ireland needs in the event that it is attacked is the ability to hold off an attacker just long enough for reinforcements to arrive from other countries. If we were invaded another country - although I am not saying that this is a particularly likely probability - we would need to be able to defend ourselves for long enough that our country would still exist as a political entity and as a free, democratic country and to allow reinforcements to show up. We can reflect on what has occurred in Ukraine over the past year and a half or so. If Kyiv had fallen in the first few weeks, it would have been over. None of the assistance that the European Union, the United States, Canada and various other countries had provided would have been provided because there would have been nothing to save.

We need the ability to at least protect ourselves long enough for assistance to arrive from outside.

This takes me to my final point, which is that one of the benefits of being more open in the context of alliance commitments is that it is considerably less expensive to defend ourselves than if we want to do so all on our own. If we were to behave as a truly military country and say that no one owes us anything and we do not owe anything to anyone else, that would require a huge increase in defence spending for us to realistically be able to protect ourselves and take on and aggressor all by ourselves and not receive assistance. That is a needless cost. The general benefit of being part of an alliance for a relatively small country like ourselves is that we can rely on much larger countries with a much larger tax base to share a disproportionate size of the burden for us. That is a responsible approach. That does not mean committing to what we might call expeditionary wars. We might even say, if we wanted to be political about it, unnecessary wars in which some of our allies may choose to participate. We can say that our role is to defend ourselves, look after the north-west corner of Europe, be the eyes and ears and provide a relatively limited deterrent ability and their role is to come save us in the event that we get attacked. That is a commitment the members of the European Union and NATO, which, of course, have quite considerable crossover at this point, would be very happy with. There would be no expectation that we take part in offensive combat operations in other countries, not that we could make a decisive contribution anyway under any realistic scenario as a relatively small country.

Before I go to our next member, as everyone is indicating, I will make people aware that I allowed a little bit of latitude because it was the opening. Timewise, however, we will have to be tighter if members do not mind. We have approximately one hour left. So everybody knows the sequence, Deputies Carthy and Haughey and Senator Chambers have all indicated.

I will just flag that I am due in the Seanad Chamber to take the Order of Business at 11.30 a.m., so if I do not get in-----

I will switch with Senator Chambers.

I thank Deputy Haughey.

That is grand. We should hopefully be able if we work together on it in terms of replies as well as questions. I call Deputy Carthy.

I will try to be brief. I thank our guests for being here. The debate would be added to if we had a third perspective that was coming from the position of Ireland's role traditionally and also a broader view of what Ireland's role in the world could and should be, and what we are best placed to be. That is the fundamental question we need to focus on. Quite frankly, it was missing from the presentations made by the witnesses and has been absent from much of the wider debate. I hear what the witnesses are saying with regard to experts and academics and the important role they play. Deputy Howlin quite rightly mentioned the financial crash when Mr. McNamara referenced experts. There were experts and academics who said many things at that time. The only thing they all had in common was that they did not have to suffer the consequences of the outworkings of their decisions.

One thing on which we will all agree and which has been mentioned, is that there is general consensus that Defence Forces spending needs to be increased. We need to improve the capacity of our Defence Forces. In fact, the capacity of our Defence Forces is an embarrassment to us, as legislators, and an insult to those who honour us by being members of the Defence Forces. The figure for Defence Forces strength is 8,500 or thereabouts. I am not sure of a comparable country anywhere in the world that is in such a poor state in terms of numbers, equipment and the conditions under which military personnel are expected to operate.

I have to mention the greatest obstacle to getting public buy-in to increased defence spending, which I actually support, because we need to reach a level of ambition and in some areas go beyond it. The biggest challenge I would see in getting public support for that is to even plant the seed that it is a precursor to ditching our neutrality and our role in terms of military alliances. That needs to inform the debate. We have an obvious responsibility in terms of protecting the infrastructure that goes through our waters and that is in our country. We need to be able to monitor subsea cables in the first instance. We need to know who is in our skies and seas and what their intentions are and be able to respond as appropriate.

As I said, however, the big question we need to be able to ask ourselves is what we are best placed to do. We are best placed because of what Mr. McNamara about a particular eventuality, namely, "when the global security situation fragments into more intense ... power competition and conflict". There is almost an inevitability about that. What we need to decide is whether there are states in the world that can play a role in trying to prevent that from happening, prevent more conflicts and resolve the existing conflicts. Are there any more honest power brokers that can act as intermediaries and play a role? Potentially, Ireland has a role to play in that regard.

I will make a final point on the suggestion to the effect that countries such as Ireland that do not spend on defence are freeloading and depending on others to come riding to our rescue. In the first instance, part of the analysis that is missing is whether joining military alliances or becoming more militarily aligned actually makes a country more of a threat and creates a risk in itself. Second, it ignores that when we do not spend on the military or if we do not spend as much as particularly powerful nations, it creates the scope for us to do more in terms of overseas development aid and other positive international roles. Therefore, this is not necessarily focused in on one. As I said, however, my primary question is one I am not sure our guests are in a position to answer, but it is central to the work this committee needs to do and the deliberations that will follow from it.

I thank Deputy Carthy very much. We started with Mr. McNamara last time, so I will start with Dr. Fitzsimmons this time. As I said, we might all remember the time.

Dr. Scott Fitzsimmons

I will try to keep this brief. I thank Deputy Carthy very much. We could, of course, if we wanted to pursue a very low-cost foreign and defence policy, forgo having national Defence Forces at all. We would then not have to feel shame over it. We could pursue the Icelandic model and just say we will sign up to an alliance and let our allies protect us exclusively. That is one approach that is very inexpensive. I do not think anyone fears Iceland. No-one looks down on or has negative views about Iceland, and it is a long-standing member of NATO. However, because it has no capacity to take part in overseas conflicts, it does not. Again, we could take that approach as well. If I understand what Deputy Carthy said correctly, his central question was really about whether we could be an honest broker as a country if we were to be aligned more explicitly with other countries. I think we can, and I will use two examples. Canada and Norway have in many respects a very similar international profile to Ireland in a sense that we have played mediator roles frequently. I say "We" because Canada is my country of birth. Canada and Norway frequently play mediator roles. They are long-standing frequent participants in peacekeeping forces. Canada rightly or wrongly claims credit for inventing the concept of peacekeeping. One of our Ministers won a Nobel Peace Prize decades ago for it.

They earned this credibility by participating in international security in a whole variety of ways; it is not merely by saying: "We are a member of NATO; we are standing guard against potential external threats." You can do that, but at the same time you can be a very active member of the United Nations, as Ireland has been for many decades. We can continue to do that. Spending more on national defence and potentially allowing allies to bear some of our home defence burdens, we can actually free up more of our resources to be an even more active member of the United Nations and earn more credibility and respect that way, building on the legacy we have already created.

Mr. Eoin Micheál McNamara

Maybe Deputy Carthy misread some of the subtlety in my statement. He talks about academics not suffering the consequences. I am an early career academic, and I certainly suffered the consequences of the banking crisis here in Ireland when I graduated from university. As I mentioned in my statement, it has left a very lasting impact on me. All my friends emigrated. I emigrated. Some came back. I put down roots abroad and I am not back yet, apart from some cameo appearances like the one here today. I know all about the consequences of not listening to good advice. There were very good economic advisers from the academic community out there. I will not go into any names, but I am sure they will be familiar to members if I mention them.

On doing nothing and remaining defenceless, and whether this has some sort of deterrent effect, my response is "No". This is why Finland joined an alliance. This is why Sweden will join and this is why most European states are members of NATO. It is because collective defence deters aggression. Even co-operation, while staying outside alliances, creates links, co-operation and military capacity and that raises the costs for aggression. We have seen what aggressors like Vladimir Putin is very capable of; and the incredible atrocities that I did not think I would see in Europe in my lifetime, happening in Ukraine.

As Dr. Fitzsimmons mentioned, no one dislikes us, but Russia and China in different hybrid subversion ways, either military or civilian, can exploit our vulnerability to strike at the European Union or the wider transatlantic economic community and network and to strike at the United Kingdom. This is becoming very tempting and very attractive to them as the global security situation deteriorates. We are seeing this in Ireland with airspace violations. We are seeing it in our waters with the Russian naval manoeuvres. We have seen it with the cyberattacks. These scares are getting more and more frequent. That is a sign that things are getting more and more questionable, vis-à-vis the security situation around Ireland.

The Deputy's point about the honest broker is a good one. I think we need to be careful here in Ireland that we do not inflate our own self image and we do not go down the track of basing policy on navel-gazing. We do play a very good role in UN peacekeeping. We must remember of course that UN peacekeeping missions are very well reimbursed compared with EU missions and NATO missions, so we get some of the costs back from the UN as well. That is not really raised a lot in Ireland. We can focus on that. Other EU countries, because of their commitments, focus on EU missions and NATO missions, as well as UN missions. Because of our choices we only focus on one. We are definitely good at peacekeeping. We are respected there. I would like to flag, however, some of the issues in the Defence Forces reported in the independent review group, IRG, report, and some of the lack of investment. I wrote an article for the Royal United Services Institute, which members can read, just last week or two weeks ago. These issues we are seeing in the Defence Forces also weaken our capacity to engage in peacekeeping. In the 1980s we could field a full battalion in Lebanon, now we are fielding essentially half a battalion and we need to force generate with countries that are NATO members. We were in with Finland and Estonia, which were contributing to a joint battalion with us in Lebanon. Now it is Poland and the Czech Republic with some soldiers from Malta. With the exception of Malta – Finland was not a NATO country at the time – all these countries are NATO countries. It does not harm their reputation in peacekeeping as well. I will bring members back to the 1990s when Kofi Annan-----

Could Mr. McNamara please conclude?

Mr. Eoin Micheál McNamara

He said that the UN was struggling for cash. It is always struggling for cash. He said that we need regional security organisations to take up more of this burden. In Europe, he was talking about the EU and NATO. Even the UN has no problem with NATO members conducting peacekeeping. There is more that I could say on that if I get the chance, but that is my piece. We need to take a sober and realist look at ourselves rather than have rose-tinted glasses.

I thank Mr. McNamara.

I thank both witnesses. I listened to their opening statements from my office, so I am familiar with the points they have made. I have gone through both submissions as well.

One question I would like to ask both witnesses is how they would assess the understanding of Irish citizens of the current type of neutrality that we have. When we try to have an honest conversation on our current defence policy and whether it is fit for purpose in the Ireland of 2023, with the geopolitical context, not just of the war in Ukraine but other issues as well, unfortunately there are some who play politics with this and try to scare citizens into thinking that we want to align with certain organisations or have an EU-wide army. Lots of things get levelled at politicians who try to raise genuine issues around defence spending, defence capacity and what we need to do in terms of our foreign policy. Part of that comes down to a very romantic view of the type of neutrality that we have.

We hear people talk about being politically neutral and militarily neutral. I take the point that Dr. Fitzsimmons made that neither of those are accurate, which is interesting. People tend to glaze over to a certain extent because there may be a lack of understanding as to the type of neutrality, if I could use that phrase, that we have. Yet, we are quite comfortable with the fact that we are clearly very good friends with the United States and the United Kingdom, if I could put it that way, neither of which is in the European Union. We are a very proud member of the European Union. Dr. Fitzsimmons has made the point that in some ways, we have a fairly big expectation of what other countries will do for us, should we need it. The UK already assists us in protecting our airspace. We have those expectations. We have not been tested in terms of reciprocating - because while the war in Ukraine is a war in Europe, it is not a war in the European Union, - should other countries in the Union need our help in some capacity. I would appreciate a comment on that from Dr. Fitzsimmons. We have not been asked yet for the type of help we may be asked for.

On increasing our defence spending, I agree with Deputy Carthy that there is a general consensus there, but when politicians are pressed to answer on that, they refer to the recruitment and retention crisis in the Defence Forces and the need to improve pay and conditions for certain members. We all agree on that but when pressed on the need to increase our military capacity in terms of air defence and maritime defence, people get a little bit shaky. An honest conversation is needed. As a small country with limited resources, what would be required for us to be neutral? What level of increase would we need to see? As we all know, if we spend more on defence, we have less to spend on health, housing, education and all of the other things. There is a lack of an honest conversation around what is required. What would we need to do if we want to be a neutral country? We need to have that conversation with citizens. Iceland was mentioned. I am a firm believer that by pooling resources with other EU member states, which we have done to a certain extent with PESCO, we can benefit from expertise and resources in other countries. Rather than everyone doubling up on the same work in different countries, why not work together? There is certainly an appetite in this country for working together on cyberdefence because the cost of doing it is astronomical. We do not have the money to do that. I would welcome the comments of the witnesses on that.

I agree with the comments of both witnesses about our role in the world. I thank Mr. McNamara for saying that we should not overstate our presence internationally. We are well regarded but lots of countries are well regarded. We have a role to play in peacekeeping and we will always play that role. We are very proud of our UN peacekeeping missions and our Defence Forces history. We must examine greater co-operation at an EU level, and be honest about what we need to do to defend our own territory and protect our citizens, as well as having an honest conversation with citizens about the transatlantic cables and our position in the EU.

We are seen as a vulnerable point in the EU in terms of territory.

These are the kinds of open and honest conversations that are missing at a national level. It is really welcome to hear our guests' comments this morning. The debate and the conversation is finally starting to happen. I hope that we are not waiting for a bigger event, bigger than what happened in the HSE cyberattack, before we take the actions we need to take in terms of defending our territory. That particular attack on the HSE changed minds in this country in terms of the need for greater co-operation at EU level, particularly in the cyber space. I feel that people's moods are shifting on wanting to do more. The days of thinking that we can just sit back and hope nobody notices us, this small island in the Atlantic, are over. Geography used to protect us but not any more.

Mr. Eoin Micheál McNamara

I welcome Senator Chambers's comments and thank her for them. I will talk about this through my own experience. To my surprise, I have been part of the honest conversations in Finland. As I mentioned, I work for a research institute that is under the Parliament of Finland but which is academically fully fire-walled. The Finns wanted the research institute to have honest conversations, to face the public rather than universities. I used to teach at university myself and have great respect for university academics but sometimes they can get a bit lost internally. The Finns wanted a research institute that would face the public, to spark these honest conversations and to have discussions. They put it under the remit of the Parliament but it is fully fire-walled. The Parliament funds the institute. As everyone knows, parliaments can never fully agree so rather than put the institute under a ministry, where it might potentially act as a mouthpiece, it was put under the eduskunta, the Parliament of Finland.

I am primarily a NATO expert. It is probably good that Deputy Carthy did not hear me say that. NATO is the most important security organisation in Europe and we have to tackle the big questions. I happen to be from Ireland. I was involved a lot with the Finnish press when Finland was joining NATO. If one reads the Finnish press, one will see that my name crops up quite a lot in the months leading up to the Finnish NATO membership. I was talking about the war in Ukraine and Finnish NATO membership. I also made the odd cameo appearance, via Zoom, on Irish channels at that time.

In Finland, they had these debates for years. Some people were very pro-Finnish and pro-non-alignment and spoke about Finnish independent defence capacity while others were pro-NATO and talked about "Never again alone" and becoming a full member of the West. They had these debates for ten years or more, back and forth, back and forth. The debates were very prominent in the media. All sorts of ideas were discussed, covering all of the dimensions the Senator mentioned. That is why Finland was able to decide so quickly. The Finnish public knew and were very well informed. I could get into a taxi in Helsinki or sit beside someone in a café and have these conversations. My name would appear in the press and often my picture would be included so people would say "That's your man". They would not say it like that obviously, but they would recognise me as the guy who comments on NATO and would ask me questions. I got messages to my email and messages on Twitter from people who were very worried about the war and who asked me to explain it to them. They wanted to know if they should be worried.

The people in Finland are very well informed and they saw that the security environment had changed. The security environment changed in the lead-up to the war when Vladimir Putin said that there should be no more new members for NATO, which was in violation of the OSCE's Charter of Paris of 1990 and the Charter for European Security of 1999, which says all states are free to choose and adjust their own security arrangements. Putin was potentially denying Finland that flexibility. The Finnish people understood that because they were very well informed. They were well informed because they had been having these honest conversations.

We are talking again about more funding. Are we going to have an international relations institute funded by the Oireachtas, costing €4 million a year, just to have foreign policy conversations? Irish academics and émigré academics like myself need to speak up, to write op-eds and other articles. I have been doing it and I would encourage my colleagues at Irish universities, as well as other stakeholders who are not academics, to make their voices heard. That is why I welcome the consultative forum that is starting tomorrow. Honest conversations are important.

Dr. Scott Fitzsimmons

I thank the Senator. Like others, she has given us a variety of really interesting questions. I will start with her first question, which was around how I would assess Irish citizens' understanding of neutrality or types of alignment. I would completely agree with one of her own descriptors, that our understanding is quite romantic. That has certainly been reflected over the last few days, because there has been a kerfuffle in the news over this. It is, and I really do not mean to be insulting in any way, a little bit detached from reality. Another way to put that is that it is somewhat based on myths. Every country has myths. It is completely normal to have myths about one's history and character. Virtually every country believes things about themselves and believes that the rest of the world thinks things about them that may not always line up perfectly with reality. To give an example, I would imagine that the vast majority of people in this country do not know that we were almost a founding member of NATO. We decided that we wanted to leverage the United States to put pressure on the UK over the North. The Americans said "No, those are the terms of our agreement", so when they would not back up their end, we said that at least for now, we would not join NATO. That "for now" has turned into several decades at this point.

Our attachment to the concept of neutrality is also based on a misunderstanding of what that entails in reality, as I suggested in my opening remarks. One-sided alignment is not nearly as catchy a term, but that is the reality of Irish foreign policy. We do have allies. They will help us. They are never going to abandon us and that goes beyond the EU. As I said earlier, I am very confident that the United States and almost certainly Canada would help Ireland if it were actually to be attacked. This is greatly downplayed, as is the fact that the UK looks after our air defences. This has been an agreement since the 1950s and I still think that the vast majority of Irish citizens do not know much, if anything, about it. They are clinging to a myth. They love that myth but it is not really closely aligned with the reality of how Ireland actually looks after its own national defence.

There is also a misunderstanding about what being a fully aligned country means. Let us look at the commitments in the Treaty of Lisbon on the EU side, and specifically Article 42.7. It basically says that if a member state is the victim of armed aggression on its territory, then the other member states will have an obligation to provide aid and assistance, within their power. That is very similar to what Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty on the NATO side says. It says that if one of the alliance members gets attacked, it will be treated as an attack on all members but like the EU treaty, it does not specify what the response has to be. It would be ridiculous for Ireland to play a role equal to that played by countries like Germany, the United States or the UK. Our primary role would most likely be much like Luxembourg's primary role, which is to look after ourselves and free up resources. Let us say we actually had jet fighter aircraft. One of our roles could be to use them on a more regular basis than under normal peace-time conditions, which would free up British aircraft to go deal with whatever problem is occurring, presumably in eastern Europe, which is the most likely area where either the EU or NATO will have to operate. If that is the reality, and I am being somewhat speculative here, that is not nearly as scary as what I feel many Irish citizens and elected officials fear, which is that if we were to join NATO, the Irish would be treated the same way they were treated during the First World War.

The fear is that we would be thrown into the guns and chewed up like meat that nobody cares about at all and that we would just be hamburgers. That is simply not the reality of how NATO or the EU have operated. Every EU or NATO member that has participated in an operation overseen by those organisations has enormous control over how its personnel are used, how many are sent and for how long, and what missions they are going to participate in. In the Balkans, only some NATO members contributed any resources at all. The others did not and it was not the end of the world by any means. In Afghanistan, only four members of NATO, which has dozens of members, took part in regular front-line combat operations. Those four countries were America, Canada, the Netherlands and the UK. That was it. Great powers, including France and Germany, said they were not comfortable with doing so and did not. There is no reason to think that if Ireland were to become a member, it would be unable to operate in exactly the same way.

I have a couple of questions to fire at the witnesses. The need for unanimity in respect of CFSP is being questioned. Reference has been made to the passerelle clause and my understanding is that unanimity is required to invoke the clause. Is there a growing demand to cease unanimity in respect of CFSP? How might that work out?

My next question relates to NATO and the EU. Many EU states are members of NATO. What is the witnesses' understanding of views across the EU regarding who does what? My guess would be that many of the member states believe NATO should look after their defence needs and, therefore, is there a need for the EU to play an increasing role in respect of defence matters, having regard to the views of the member states?

We have dealt with the question of positive neutrality, Ireland being an honest broker and the need to promote peace, justice and basic human rights throughout the world. I will move on from that.

On the NATO-led Partnership for Peace, there has been talk of a mission to protect undersea cables and pipelines. The notion has been floated by the Tánaiste that we may co-operate with the Partnership for Peace to protect undersea telecommunications cables and pipelines. What is the understanding of the witnesses of what is being proposed in that regard? How will that work?

The RAF deal, so to speak, was widely publicised recently by The Irish Times. What is their understanding of that arrangement? The Tánaiste has refused to disclose details on the grounds of national security and yet it has been widely considered in The Irish Times and in the House of Commons. References have been made to the existence of such a deal. What is the witnesses' understanding of that particular arrangement?

Dr. Scott Fitzsimmons

I thank the Deputy for a variety of interesting questions. He first asked if the EU should do away with the requirement for unanimity in respect of common defence decisions. I believe that unanimity should be maintained. One of the best aspects of unanimity for a country such as Ireland is that we get a voice equal to that of the bigger and stronger countries. While it does not eliminate politicking, it does in some ways reduce its intensity. A majority vote decision-making system tends to promote factionalisation and it is possible to see patterns of countries that vote together and the countries that do not vote with them can feel isolated. A system based on unanimity tends to avoid all of that.

The potential downside is that unanimity requires the decision-making process to happen more slowly. It can be frustrating for certain countries that feel like a quick and obvious decision can be made when even a single other member country can serve as a spoiler because it has a veto. To use a contemporary example, some of the members of NATO are finding the situation a little frustrating when it comes to Sweden's request to join the organisation. Even a single member - Turkey in this case - gets to hold up the process. That is frustrating but for a small country, it can be a very good thing. If we disagree with something, we can hold up the process and require compromises that we probably could not if we found we were on the minority side of a decision that was made by a simple majority vote.

The Deputy also asked if the EU has a role in common defence, and I feel it does. That role has expanded, if anything, over the past seven years or so because, as I mentioned in my opening remarks, one of the key non-European members in NATO common defence is the United States and one of the two major political parties there, which will inevitably hold both the Legislature and the White House at some point in the future, is increasingly isolationist and hostile to all international agreements, including security agreements. It would be terrifying for Europe to be taken by complete surprise and find that its most powerful ally, the country across the ocean, does not want to live up to its commitments. We need to prepare and plan to be able to look after ourselves. That is to the great benefit of NATO because a very well-prepared and co-operative EU, a collection of EU member countries and armed forces, is useful for NATO operations. However, we need the freedom to be able to look after our own affairs, if necessary.

Mr. Eoin Micheál McNamara

The question of unanimity relates to European security among European states, be it with their NATO or EU hats on. I have worked in the Baltic states and currently work in Finland. I have been active in different policy and academic networks for approximately a decade since I left Ireland in my early 20s. I will go to Warsaw next week, after the consultative forum, to speak at a big policy conference. I get around and hear what other European countries think. I engage with people and experts in other European countries. There is a strong sense of consensus, particularly in NATO, which is the lead security organisation for many of our European partners, the United States and Canada. Consensus can be frustrating. If we were sitting in the Swedish ministry for defence, ministry for foreign affairs or another office of state, we would be very frustrated at Turkey being the one country currently blocking Sweden's entry to NATO. That is down to consensus and that consensus gives NATO its strength. It is why NATO is the most successful defence alliance in the world and why it has not broken up. The history of defence and military allowances shows they tend not to stick together for too long. They tend to be constantly reformulated. NATO has constantly endured because consensus keeps bringing democratic nations back to the table. It is a democratic alliance, for the most part, and democracies keep renewing. We saw this recently with Donald Trump, who allegedly threatened to take the United States out of NATO. Democratic renewal meant he had to stand aside and we got President Biden instead. NATO has been rejuvenated. Consensus lies at the core of that and all European nations, whether wearing an EU or NATO badge, will always emphasise consensus because it gives us long-term strength as a democratic community. I see a move away from unanimity as very unlikely, although it will be discussed.

I will turn to EU-NATO burden-sharing. We are seeing more of a complementing division of labour in that regard. At the beginning of the Common Security and Defence Policy in 1999, the EU tried to do a lot of replication of NATO. It was a kind of NATO-lite. If the United States did not want to act, the Europeans could go it alone. That was mostly in respect of crisis management missions. There was a lot of replication of NATO in that regard.

On the battle group model, no EU battle group has ever been deployed. The model was designed to make sure we had permanent and structured co-operation and that forces were familiar with each other so that when they were in pressured situations in the developing world or in peacekeeping or crisis scenarios, the Swedes knew the Irish, the Irish knew the Germans and the Germans knew the Poles, for example. They all knew each other and were able to work together, so when the pressure came on, they were able to perform as a single unit. That was the idea between the battle groups. They are still going; they were not very successful at the beginning. Ireland has just joined a new German-led battle group; we will have to see how that goes. Elsewhere, for instance, I have done a lot of work on NATO's eastern flank. Logistics are key because NATO still does not want to create a bigger build-up in eastern European with Russia. If things get really bad, NATO will defend every inch of its territory in Poland or in the Baltic states, but it relies on mobilisation. The NATO battle groups along the eastern flank are very small; they are trip-wire battle groups to signal to Russia that we do not want to fight but it will trigger a big international conflict with Germany, France, the United States and the United Kingdom if it comes into central or eastern Europe. It will not just be Poland or the Baltic states. Infrastructure such as bridges, road and rail are key. The EU funds that transnational infrastructure, which can help the mobilisation we might need in a crisis if hostility escalates. We are getting tight on time - I did not get to a couple of the Deputy's other very interesting but complicated to answer questions. We may get another chance.

We may do another day if necessary. The questions not answered were about the RAF arrangement and the PESCO-led partnership for protection of underseas cables, if Mr. McNamara could answer those.

Mr. Eoin Micheál McNamara

I would love to.

We will give a bit of leeway.

Dr. Scott Fitzsimmons

With respect to PESCO, fairly new PESCO projects have been announced in the past while that directly touch on this issue. There are two undersea infrastructure PESCO projects; I encourage Ireland to at least take on observer status in these projects so we can see what is out there. It does not commit us to anything but since is a key aspect of our national defence, we should be aware of the technologies and capabilities we could adopt if we would like to increase our capacity in this area. With respect to the UK air defence agreement, it needs to be discussed much more openly in Ireland than it is. That is the biggest change I would like to see. Whether any changes occur over the next ten years or so, as I said earlier, I favour incrementalism. The most important thing that needs to happen is complete transparency. The people of Ireland and elected officials must know what they are agreeing to in order to make informed decisions. While this agreement is often referred to as a "secret" agreement, it is not. It is simply an agreement that is not talked about nearly as much as it should be.

Mr. Eoin Micheál McNamara

On the NATO undersea cell, I think they call it the "undersea telecommunications cell" or there is a draft name for it like that. If we participate in that, we will essentially get a seat at the table. It will be mostly information-sharing. NATO is an intergovernmental alliance in which it is every ally or member state in the north Atlantic's responsibility to look after its own exclusive economic zone unless there are co-operative agreements, for example, the Baltic air policing agreement taken by NATO allies multilaterally or multinationally. If we enter into an arrangement like that, we will have as eat at the table. A lot of information will be shared with our policymakers, civil servants and people in the Department of Defence and the Defence Forces. It will definitely improve our situational awareness. We will know what is going on and the operations our partners undertake and we will be able to raise our concerns. It will not be treaty-based defence co-operation. It will not tie us to any all-for-one or one-for-all type of deals but it would be very good for our capacity and our situational awareness and the information we have at our disposal as to what is going on proximate to our waters.

On the UK RAF, I will be very short and sweet. We should come clean on that. We should be transparent. We talk about disarmament, arms control and defence sector transparency globally, for example, at the UN, Ireland was very for that. You cannot go around the world talking about integrity and transparency in the defence sector if you are not transparent and treating your people with integrity at home. On that deal, no one wants to see precise operational plans or State secrets or anything like that, so the national security excuse for not disclosing more is a red herring. We should know the basic contours of that deal. For example, is the RAF charged with protecting Irish airspace? That is a matter in the Irish national security interest and will be crucial to take our security and defence forward. Are we okay with that? Are there other arrangements? Could we look after this ourselves? It is important for the defence of our country going forward that we open this up.

Go raibh maith agat to Mr. McNamara and Dr. Fitzsimmons. I thank them very much for coming in. I am sorry - I had to speak in the Dáil and then I had made an arrangement with the Irish Wheelchair Association. I agree with what was said earlier; the witnesses were very direct and straight about the points they made. I imagine much of what I was going to ask has been asked. There is an acceptance; Finland is obviously in a different place. Mr. McNamara spoke about that whole Nordic, Baltic part of the world, where they see things very differently. The Finns cannot but see things through the prism of the Winter War, etc., and Ukraine has changed the geopolitical setup, undoubtedly.

There was an element of status quo here, which perhaps meant, to a degree, that people could be rather relaxed about what we considered security and defence. I think everyone accepts the dangers in the modern world, such as hybrid and cyber. We all know the difficulty regarding cyber-to-physical, which can be an almost nightmare scenario. We are aware of our geographic setup and the tech sector, a huge amount of which is centred here. It means those data communication lines are absolutely necessary for the continuity of western economies across the board.

I think Mr. McNamara also hit the nail on the head regarding our Defence Forces and the need for transparency regarding the RAF. We have not done the necessary work and do not have the resources, for example, there are issues in recruitment and retention and beyond that, we know we do not have the equipment. As much as we are all aware and welcome that there has been an element of review, there must be a review of the entirety of the Irish Defence Forces and what capacity it needs from a perspective of what we need to do, particularly regarding our waters and our skies. We must have that real-world conversation. The Irish people have not moved greatly in that while they welcome that we are seen as a fair player, non-alignment has suited us in that regard. We all know our history and the bright shining light we are to a working peace process. I understand the point on Britain; it is probably not terminology I would use, given our recent history, but I get the geopolitical point.

When we talk about cyber, it concerns hybrid and threats.

We are talking about non-alignment but we are in the European Union. We obviously see ourselves in a lot of international setups as generally being on the right side. Sometimes we are at variance with our European partners. I am not only referring to Ukraine but also Palestine and other such conflicts.

The major point that needs to be made is we need to get our own house in order. We need to make sure that is our primary focus. Beyond that, that does not stop any element of co-operation. If we are talking about cyber, we obviously have a huge amount of resources here in the sense of institutes or our level of expertise. The HSE attack showed we were found wanting. I am not giving out about a particular attack, but the fact we further resourced the National Cyber Security Centre, NCSC, and everything else was an acceptance we were not where we needed to be before that point.

I can probably guess what the answer to my question will be. From our point of view, what can we do to maintain as much as possible the element of non-alignment that gives us a certain element of leaving us in a worthwhile position to be a fair player on an international basis while at same time dealing with the obvious threats? Obviously, dealing with our capacity issues is first and foremost, but beyond that what can we do?

I have to-----

I refer to opt in co-operation. It was shown across the European Union during Covid that, while we had no health competence, we were able to do an opt in because it suited all of us in terms of pharmaceutical block buys, etc.

I ask the witnesses to be brief. We are running close on time and want to conclude shortly. I appreciate the points made by Deputy Ó Murchú. We have covered a lot of ground already. Rather than repetition, I ask that we home in on one or two of the individual aspects.

Mr. Eoin Micheál McNamara

These are very complicated issues. I am trying to focus on what Deputy Ó Murchú said. I then have to think about the alternation arrangement.

The very Irish nationalist thing to do is to invest in and rebuild our Defence Forces. We need to increase the offer and attractiveness of the service. There are Irish people living abroad writing on security issues, not just about Ireland but across different European countries. I am not one for emotions. I like realist sober analysis. I hope I have underlined that here today. However, one emotional thing that got under my skin was all of the members of the Defence Forces who would write to me telling me they really like an article I wrote about NATO, drone strikes or something like that. I have got to know perhaps 20 or 30 of them across the board. I know we have troubles. I wrote a very hard-hitting article on the independent review group, IRG, report published by the Royal United Services Institute, RUSI, a couple of weeks ago. They are incredible people. They are the best people I have met in Irish society. It has warmed my heart abroad that these people, including different officers, people from enlisted ranks and NCOs, have reached out to me and want to discuss my research with me. It touched my heart.

We can recruit a lot of people like this. I have spoken to the people in RACO. We can still recruit, but we cannot retain them because they are very good and are in demand. The civilian economy can take them. They want to go because the job is tough. We are asking a lot of them. The more the numbers fall, the more we ask of them. We are leaning on them. Irish society needs to understand their role. They are a down payment on our security and future and the future of our prosperity and Irish social progression. I do not live in the society at the moment. I hope to return. All of my family are from here.

On the fair player aspect, it is something that is played up. Sweden is about to join NATO. I was in Stockholm a month or two ago. It, along with Ireland, is seen as one of the most supportive countries in the EU on Palestine. Nobody in Stockholm is saying it joining NATO will harm its relations with Palestine. We tend to tie the NATO issue to Britain, British imperialism and all of that when it is criticised by the Irish left here. Other European countries see it as a broad multilateral alliance.

Those issues are not as unconnected as some Irish activists might have us believe. Finland was involved in the Good Friday Agreement through the involvement of Harri Holkeri and people like that. I know how things work in Finland. It has a very impressive global peace mediation department in its ministry of foreign affairs. It has a crisis management initiative NGO, the Martti Ahtisaari Peace Foundation. Members will remember him from his work in Northern Ireland. We are consumers of all of the global peace mediation conducted out of Helsinki. One organisation is an NGO, but it is very close to and funded by the Finnish Government. It mediated conflict all over the world. Finland put resources into that and put its money where its mouth is when it came to being an honest broker. Its former President, Urho Kekkonen, said Finland must be the physician and not the judge when it comes to international relations and must try to fix problems rather than judge, even though he was a high priest of Finlandisation. There is entanglement there.

Beyond our Defence Forces and blue helmet operation, we have not put many resources into this. There was going to be a conflict resolution unit in the Department of Foreign Affairs. That is simply a shell. It is a website. Perhaps there are now some staff connected to it but they are not very active and nowhere near the level of independent Nordic states. We have not put resources into this but we talk a good game. That is disappointing.

Dr. Scott Fitzsimmons

I thank members for their questions. In terms of our alignment and role as an honest broker, I do not think increasing our formal alignment in defence and security would fundamentally change that. The European Union already collectively plays quite an honest broker role in the case a member raised. In respect of Israeli-Palestinian peace, it is certainly not viewed in the same way as the United States, which is certainly aligned with one particular party.

Based on the decades of the existence of the European Union, its predecessor organisations and NATO, I do not believe that becoming a more active member in terms of EU common defence or joining NATO at some point in the future would fundamentally change most aspects of Irish foreign policy. There are many disagreements on issues between long-standing NATO and EU members. They have to agree on how to deal with external threats to all of them. Other than that, there is no need or pressure to toe a particular line. We certainly do not have to agree with the United States, Germany, France or the UK on any particular issue, whether it be Israel, Palestine or another matter.

Therefore, we can continue to be a powerful voice for the Palestinian people and Palestinian statehood if we choose to continue taking this perspective. We can continue to be a key player in terms of the development of humanitarian assistance and other key planks in our foreign policy that we should all be very proud of. I do not think these things would change at all.

Before I conclude, I would like to have an engagement on a particular aspect of the discussion. Unfortunately, we have very little time so I will try to be brief. My question has nothing to do with Ireland in the context of individual aspects of neutrality or issues around foreign policy. A key aspect of what we wanted to engage with the witnesses on here today is the principle of European Union- versus NATO-led defence. We have not had a chance to hear from the witnesses on an overview of the European side. We do not like to talk about it because we do not want to say there is a difference of opinion, but there are two political philosophies at play.

NATO is a north Atlantic treaty organisation. Whether we like it or not, and allowing for the strains in recent American administrations, it is an American-led European security framework. There has always been a different viewpoint, coming primarily out of France, that as the European Union has evolved from the European Coal and Steel Community, through the European Economic Community to the EU, the framework for co-operation should be led primarily by the European Union and the involvement of NATO should be different or it should take a secondary role. While I do not want to put the witnesses on the spot, I am interested whether they think the strength of European security co-operation is best led through that EU vision - let us call it, for want of a better description, the French vision - or, as a Continent and collection of western countries, our long-term security is still best led by a NATO-based approach to co-operation. I will start with Dr. Fitzsimmons and then move to Mr. McNamara.

Dr. Scott Fitzsimmons

That is a really big question. To a great extent they are not mutually exclusive. The better the EU gets at co-operation, planning and preparation in this area, not only will we be better at dealing with issues that are not of any great concern to the United States but also at dealing at issues that are of concern. NATO should play a role in defending Europe from major external threats. Thankfully, until recently, that was not a particularly pressing issue. Great power wars are, thankfully, very rare, not that we should discount their threat because they are extremely harmful when they do occur. However, they do not occur nearly as often as smaller scale crises such as Europe experienced during the 1990s, especially in the Balkans. While the United States eventually became involved in that, which were the first real NATO operations, by no means did it jump in at the beginning. Enormous amounts of death and suffering occurred for years before the United States got involved. Given this was a European crisis that occurred in our geopolitical back yard, I favour first and foremost Ireland being a key player in European defence and security capacity building, so that if the United States either wants to stay out completely of a crisis or drag its feet and get in slowly, which is a distinct possibility for the foreseeable future, Europe can act on its own. Developing our capacity in this area will be very helpful when we do face a larger scale external threat. We should, first and foremost, focus on capacity building to deal with crises in Europe.

Mr. Eoin Micheál McNamara

On the French vision, I do not want to upset any of my friends from France, but we need to remember that NATO has been around since 1949. The Common Security and Defence Policy, CSDP, has been around since 1999, which is very young in the development of security institutions. The CSDP was developed because that was the era of expeditionary peace support. That was obviously French led, first in the Balkans and then in the Sahel region in Africa to protect against the myriad risks that could come up through the Mediterranean. We are seeing them now. If there is not stabilisation in the Sahel, then Europe's southern flank is in trouble, as it is currently. I am based in Europe and I know that most European states still see NATO as tried, tested and trusted to an extent way beyond the EU institutions. It also has the power of the United States behind it, which is very important. The United States has capabilities, which Europe does not have, that are essential for the operations we need to run in Europe. Increasingly, these operations are more about territorial defence - especially defence of the EU and NATO eastern flank. When the conversations start getting very serious, most European countries will put their NATO hat on and walk into NATO decision-making rooms and emphasise that environment.

France has been mentioned, but I will finish on this point. I have worked in the Baltic states and networked with a lot of eastern European academics over the past decade. It is mooted in literature on international relations policy that the policy in Europe will see a power shift to the east. In ten to 15 years, Poland's GDP is projected to be larger than that of the United Kingdom. Poland has been playing a key role in the war in Ukraine. The Baltic and Nordic states in the European Union might then want to tuck themselves in under Polish power. The European Union has been run geopolitically on a three power model of France, Germany and the UK, when it was a member. Now NATO and the EU are looking at a five power model in the transatlantic space - the US, the UK, Germany, France and Poland. In my opinion, Ireland never grasped how enlargement changed the European Union. I have been working in that part of the world for a decade, and now it is their time. They have had their time as newcomers inside the European Union. Their economies are rising and they are voicing more of their influence inside the European Union. We need to respond to that in Irish foreign policy. We have a very good place to start. There are large central and eastern European diasporas, split across the central and eastern European region, within Ireland. Our Department of Foreign Affairs should try to look at this and look at this early. It will advantage us by giving us a seat closer to the action as the geopolitical environment in Europe develops. That must be borne in mind.

I think the Department of Foreign Affairs is conscious of that, as is this committee. I do not fully agree with Mr. McNamara about the geopolitical move to the east being based on the development in Poland. The balance of power will happen with enlargement where it includes Ukraine, Georgia and some of the newer member states. Following that process, we will have a European Union which will be very eastern-centric. Where that will leave older and newer member states in that balance will be part of the discussion. Thankfully, Ireland is doing a lot of good work on that.

Mr. Eoin Micheál McNamara

The Chair has more ambition than I have in that regard.

The Irish Government and this committee have a lot of ambition. A lot of members have done some huge work on that, about which it is hoped we will get an opportunity at another time to keep the witnesses informed. I thank all of the witnesses.

The joint committee adjourned at 11.58 a.m. until 10 a.m. on Wednesday, 28 June 2023.
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