I am really grateful for the opportunity to address the committee. I am delighted to be joined by our chief operations officer Dee McMahon and our EU policy, information and research officer Dr. Matthew G. O'Neill, who recently finished his PhD at Queen's University Belfast.
Is mór agam a bheith anseo inniu agus táiman-bhuíoch as an gcuireadh labhairt libh inniu ar ábhair fhíorthábhachtach dúinne i nGluaiseacht na hEorpa in Éirinn, agus daoibhse mar choiste gan amhras. It is a privilege to be here today to discuss the findings of the 2023 European Movement Ireland’s annual EU opinion poll. This year is the first year there has been the first dedicated concurrent all-island opinion poll on EU issues. I will also briefly discuss the launch of our new disinformation research project, which may be of interest to members of this committee.
As we mark Ireland's 50 years of EU membership this year as well as the 25th anniversary of the Good Friday Agreement, the findings of this year’s EU opinion poll are even more significant. At the same time, we are looking towards 2024, which will mark a pivotal election for the European Parliament as well as being a significant year for us as we mark and celebrate the 70th anniversary of our foundation as an organisation.
As I mentioned, this is the first time we have included Northern Ireland in the findings.
Of course, I do not have to tell distinguished members of this committee that, since Brexit, the relationship between people in Northern Ireland and the EU has become uncertain, and we think it is important to measure public sentiment towards the major issues affecting the relationship between the EU and this island as a whole.
Since 2013, we have carried out annual independent polling on Ireland’s relationship with the EU. Our effort to track and analyse Irish sentiment towards the EU is unique and, I hope, valuable. The regularity with which we carry out this exercise allows us to not only capture sentiment as a snapshot in time but also affords us the opportunity to track changes and present trends on Irish EU sentiment that have occurred over the years. Bearing the usual caveats and associated health warnings about opinion polls in mind, I will highlight a few points from our results this year that the committee may find interesting. Time prevents us from going into in-depth analysis of all the questions, but we have picked a flavour and snapshot that I hope committee members will find interesting.
Our perennial and constant question relates to support for Ireland's continued membership of the EU. This year, support remains stable and positive at 88% in Ireland and 79% in Northern Ireland. Interestingly, support was highest in both the youngest and oldest age cohorts at 93% and 91%, respectively. While support for Ireland remaining a member of the EU remains stable and positive at 88% in Ireland, just 58% believed the EU is moving in the right direction. There was a significant increase, of 9%, of the number of people in Ireland unsure if they felt the EU is moving in the right direction. That jump from 18% to 27% in one year is a salutary reminder that we cannot be complacent about the importance of continually engaging with the public on Ireland’s relationship with the EU. However, more encouragingly, as we face into next year's European Parliament elections, 70% of people in Ireland say they could not be convinced that we would be better off outside of the EU. Three quarters of people in Northern Ireland, at 74%, but only 51% in Ireland, believed that Northern Ireland should be represented in the European Parliament.
We then looked at some policy areas that Irish people wished for greater EU involvement in. There was a clear demand for the EU to be more active in policy areas. One in three want to see an increased role for the EU in healthcare, at 32%, and housing at 28%. Housing, understandably, was seen to be a higher priority for younger people. Interestingly, in Northern Ireland, the environment topped the poll at 32%, followed by healthcare at 25%.
Regarding the question on a united Ireland, our poll found that approximately one in four people, or 24%, in Ireland believe that there will be a united Ireland in the EU within ten years. This represents a 7% decrease since our poll last year. Meanwhile, in Northern Ireland, almost half the respondents, or 45%, believe that there will be a united Ireland in the EU within ten years. What we found surprising from the findings was that large jump of people in Ireland in one year, up from 43% to 58%, who do not believe that there will be a united Ireland in the next ten years. This is particularly noteworthy, as the responses on this issue had previously remained relatively constant over the last three years, with about one third of people in Ireland every year saying they believed there would be a united Ireland in the EU.
On budgetary issues, our poll found that more people in Ireland are satisfied, at 43%, than dissatisfied, at 35%, that Ireland pays more than it receives as a net contributor to the EU budget. Of course, there has been much discussion on defence, security and neutrality. Only last week, we saw Professor Louise Richardson present her consultative forum report to the Tánaiste. Approximately half those polled, 49% in Ireland, and 52% in Northern Ireland, feel that Ireland should be part of increased EU defence and security cooperation. The number opposing participation is higher in Northern Ireland. Those aged over 55, both in Ireland and Northern Ireland, were most likely to respond in favour of increased participation.
We looked at media. Our findings showed that traditional media remains the critical and vital source of information on EU issues. It ranked highest for both Ireland, at 61%, and Northern Ireland at 62%. Social media ranked in second place for both jurisdictions.
We then looked at areas of trust. This was an interesting finding, being able to do it for both North and South for the first time. In Ireland, our poll reports an equal division of trust between the Irish Government at 50% and the EU at 50%. In Northern Ireland, 44% trust the EU, compared with 34% for the Irish Government and 22% for the British Government. In Ireland, those aged 18 to 34 were most likely to trust the EU, while in Northern Ireland, those between 18 to 34 were most likely to trust the Irish Government.
I look forward to committee members' questions on our poll. To sum up, overall, our survey reveals stable and overwhelmingly positive support for Ireland's continued EU membership, but like all relationships, it must be engaged with and nurtured, and concerns exist about the EU's future direction, which highlights the importance of continually engaging with our relationship with the EU, with all members of the public.
I will briefly discuss our ambitious new research project, of which our first findings were published this month. We feel it follows on and supports the work that we are doing on our annual polling but also as part of our mission and remit to promote and encouragement engagement with factual information on our relationship with the EU. Our work in this area is to understand the impact of disinformation on Irish social media discourse because, of course, disinformation poses a serious threat to Ireland's democracy, national security, and social cohesion. Those disinformation campaigns seek to manipulate public opinion and can undermine free and fair elections and other democratic institutions. By understanding the nature of these disinformation threats, Ireland can take measures to safeguard our democratic processes, monitor risks to national security, and build a more resilient society.
One definition of "disinformation" is that it can be defined as false information that is shared deliberately online and is often used to sow confusion around different issues and create conflict. One challenge we collectively face when disinformation goes viral online is that it is often too late to counteract the damage done at that stage. We only need to examine disinformation's impact on the Covid-19 pandemic to understand its influences. Disinformation led to fewer people getting vaccinated and divided communities. Our poll two years ago found that 45% of respondents said that they had confidence in the EU’s vaccine strategy.
A core theme emerging from our analysis is how disinformation rhetoric exploits division and grievances within Irish society, for example, on issues such as NATO membership, the digital euro and many more topics. Another theme that we have seen in our research is how language inflames anti-immigrant prejudice, for example by scapegoating Ukrainian refugees for domestic problems as we have seen in our analysis of the data sets we looked at.
Together, these themes reveal how disinformation erodes complex debates. The narratives present a binary of us versus them, the people against the elites, nationals against foreigners, and so on. This fragments public discourse, degrades trust in institutions and risks undermining Ireland's democratic culture over time. Within the last year, we have seen the rise and use of generative AI. To tackle disinformation within Irish society, automation will not be enough. A balanced combination of technology and human oversight is needed. No single actor can tackle disinformation alone.
We would like to thank and pay tribute to the Minister, Deputy Catherine Martin, and her departmental colleagues for the establishment of the national counter disinformation strategy working group, and the various academic researchers, fact-checkers, platforms, government agencies, civil society organisations and other experts with whom we had the opportunity to engage and who regularly share best practices and insights on evolving disinformation with us. To maximise impact of this project, European Movement Ireland as an NGO has adopted an evidence-based strategy grounded in research. We must understand how disinformation spreads and affects communities. In an organisation founded to connect and promote citizens, citizens and that engagement are at the heart of the all work we do. We will be ensure the development of tailored awareness campaigns and literacy programmes within our area of expertise of the EU to build societal resilience.
It is also imperative to continue collaborating with media outlets and civil society organisations to facilitate access to trusted sources of factual information.
I stress to the committee that it is vital that civil society organisations and NGOs be supported in their efforts to tackle this crucial issue. With our community ties, our on-the-ground experience and our hyperlocal expertise, we believe that NGOs are indispensable allies in this important fight against disinformation.
I look forward to addressing some of these issues with the committee and thank the members for the opportunity to engage with and address them. I look forward to their questions and comments.
