Dáil Éireann díospóireacht -
Tuesday, 11 Dec 1973

Vol. 269 No. 10

Oil Supplies Situation: Motion.

Minister for Transport and Power (Mr. P. Barry)

I move:

That Dáil Éireann takes note of the current oil situation.

This country is very highly dependent on oil, which accounts for 69 per cent of primary energy sources and 65 per cent of production of electricity by the Electricity Supply Board. In 1972 our total imports of petrol products amounted to 4.8 million tons. Of this total 2.7 million tons were imported in the form of crude oil for refining at Whitegate and all or practically all of this crude oil originated in Arab producing countries. In addition to refined oil products from the Whitegate refinery we had net imports in 1972 of a further 2.1 million tons approximately. Fuel oil, which is used principally by the ESB and heavy industry, accounts for almost 50 per cent of our use of oil products and half of this amount or approximately 25 per cent of total oil requirements is used by the ESB. Gas diesel oil accounts for some 20 per cent of our consumption. It is used for agricultural tractors, central heating, industry and commercial transport. The consumption of gas diesel oil has been growing at a very rapid rate, particularly for central heating, and it is one of the oil products which has been in particularly short supply even before the outbreak of the Middle East War. Motor spirit accounts for approximately 15 per cent of our user and demand has been growing in step with the expansion in private motoring. Approximately two-thirds of our motor spirit are supplied by the Whitegate refinery.

We do not purchase either crude oil or oil products direct from any of the Arab countries; practically all our requirements are purchased through or from the major oil companies in Britain. In the present situation therefore we expect to receive supplies at the same level as the British domestic market. I have made our expectations in this regard plain to the Irish subsidiaries of the major oil companies concerned and I understand from them that this is in fact the position. There is in any case no official restriction on the export of oil or oil products from Britain to this country. The precise impact on consuming countries of the cut-back in Arab production is not yet entirely clear. The oil business is very complex and is integrated internationally on a wide basis; supplies of crude are drawn from both Arab and non-Arab countries by the companies. The best assessment I have been able to make of the level of supply in this market is that we have up to now been suffering an overall shortfall of something over 15 per cent of our normal requirements. Within the overall level of supply, the position varies between different oil products and even between different companies. Certain other oils, particularly gas diesel, are and have been in tight supply for some time. There are also current difficulties about bunkers for ships and jet fuel for aircraft. I have, however, received reports from the oil importing companies this morning that they expect a substantial deterioration in the supply position in the New Year amounting in some cases to as much as 30 per cent of their current requirements.

At the beginning of the oil crisis our stocks overall amounted to 65 days supply. There has been some reduction but this downward trend was arrested by the introduction of restrictions on deliveries. The position of our stocks is kept under close scrutiny together with the level of supply and further restrictions will be imposed if the situation deteriorates further.

The restrictions in supplies from abroad required steps to be taken here to conserve supplies. To deal with this growing scarcity I made orders on 16th November restricting deliveries of oil products on the basis of deliveries in the winter period of last year. On this basis deliveries of motor spirit have been held for the current quarter to 95 per cent of normal deliveries for commercial users and to 90 per cent of normal deliveries to garages for retail sale. In the case of other oil products, deliveries for central heating have been held to 90 per cent of normal deliveries and deliveries for commercial and industrial consumers to 95 per cent of normal deliveries. Provision exists for increasing deliveries in special circumstances.

Because these restrictions on deliveries for the whole quarter, October/December, came into effect only in the middle of the quarter, they bore very heavily on garages or other consumers who had supplied or used oil products at normal or even higher levels up to that date. It was necessary to apply the restriction to the whole quarter both for administrative reasons and to ensure that those who had been hoarding supplies or had obtained excessive deliveries would not benefit from them. I had publicly warned of the need for economy as early as 22nd October and had then indicated that I would ensure that those who hoarded excess stocks would not get the benefit of them. The situation has been difficult for garages because no steps to restrict retail deliveries were really practicable in advance of my order restricting wholesale supplies. In these circumstances I have informed the oil companies that they may, in their discretion, issue to garages in difficulties up to 5 per cent of their normal winter supplies as an advance against whatever allocation may be set for them in the next quarter.

Before going on to deal with the arrangements made for other users of oil products in industry and agriculture may I digress for a moment to deal with the question of petrol rationing. The level of supply of motor spirit up to now has been adequate to meet essential requirements and has not required formal rationing. The steps taken by the garages themselves in fixing the minimum purchases and making special arrangements for essential users together with the commendable good sense of many motorists have together been adequate to stop panic topping-up and restore some level of normality.

Nevertheless, the Government decided that our plans should be completed for the formal rationing of petrol in case rationing became unavoidable. Contingency planning for rationing can only be said to be complete when coupons are in the hands of vehicle owners ready to use immediately if the need arises. As Deputies are aware, arrangements are now in progress to do this. Advertisements have appeared in the Press giving detailed instructions as to how application should be made for basic allowances. These allowances will be expressed in terms of "units" and no decision has been taken as to the value of the "unit". This will be done if and when it is decided to introduce rationing. The issue of coupons at this stage is a prudent step, which will enable the Government to introduce rationing at short notice. No decision to do so has yet been arrived at but I will have to examine the situation very closely in the light of the information about the supply situation now coming forward.

Motor spirit accounts for only 15 per cent of our total imports of oil or oil products. It is used largely by private motorists and it is relatively irrelevant to the real economic problems which threaten us if cuts of the order now threatened are realised.

In the case of oil products other than petrol there is already in effect, as a result of my orders restricting deliveries, a de facto scheme of rationing which is being administered in close consultation with the oil companies. This is possible because the users of these oils are almost always, without exception, supplied direct by the oil companies and deliveries to them can be restricted in accordance with an allocation system. The situation is very complicated however in the case of industrial or commercial users. Because of the growth of the economy requirements of some users may now be far greater than they were and for others the highest priority is essential in the national interest. For instance the essential requirements for the beet sugar campaign must be met as a first priority. Broadly the priorities which must be maintained are firstly essential services such as public transport, production of food and other essential goods, and secondly the maintenance of industrial and commercial employment at the highest possible level.

Essential or priority users in these categories who, after effecting all possible economies cannot maintain their services or production, should take up their difficulties in the first place with their suppliers. Under the arrangements made between my Department and the oil companies their needs may be investigated and reported to the Department through the Oil Advisory Committee we have established. It may be necessary at some future date to formalise this system and to establish formal official rationing schemes for certain categories of oil but at the moment these flexible arrangements are more appropriate. They avoid the rigidities which must attach to any formal official scheme.

Should, however, the supply position deteriorate seriously in the future, resort would have to be had to formal rationing, despite its drawbacks. It is not possible at this stage to lay down a scale of priorities which would be applied in such an event. Any such scale would depend on a number of factors such as the level of supplies available, the season of the year, the volume of employment provided and the essential nature of the end product manufactured or transported. The maintenance of employment and production would, of course, have a very high priority in all supply situations. The present system is quite effective to meet the present difficulties and it has the advantage that by contact with users' requirements through the oil companies very useful information is being built up in my Department which would be enormously helpful in dealing with any tighter situation which might develop in the future.

The ESB have stocks of oil to meet their requirements for about 70 days and are therefore in a relatively good position for the present; but their prospects for future supply are uncertain and the need for economy applies to the use of electricity as to all other forms of energy. The ESB are drawing up provisional plans for rationing in case it should prove necessary but, as in the case of petrol rationing, it would be far better to avoid formal rationing of electricity if that can be done. The ESB have in recent months been forced by outages of plant and industrial disputes to resort to selective load shedding and reductions in voltage. No such measures have been in force since the beginning of the month: such measures are of an emergency nature and would not normally be used to ration consumption.

Town gas, which used to be produced entirely from coal, has for some years past been made from oil. The main feedstock for the gas companies is naphtha which has been in tight supply throughout Europe for some time past. The maintenance of supplies of gas for home and industry must receive a high priority but there is the greatest need for the utmost economy in the use of gas, particularly for central heating.

Liquid petroleum gas, commonly know as bottled gas, which is used for industrial and commercial purposes, accounts for some 2 per cent of our consumption of oil products. About half of our requirements is imported and half produced at Whitegate. Storage is limited and there are no official restrictions on supply. Propane which is the particular form used for industrial purposes is in particularly short supply.

To meet essential social, industrial and commercial needs we must make every endeavour to conserve our restricted supplies of oil and oil products. There is practically no one in the country who cannot help towards this end in some practical way. We are all users of energy and by the standards of our fathers, let alone our forefathers, we are profligate users of energy; and a great deal of this energy is used for convenience, even for luxury, rather than by necessity. Because almost 70 per cent of our total energy depends on oil, reduction of the use of energy in almost any form helps to conserve the use of oil. It should be possible to make substantial savings in central heating not only in homes but in hotels and offices, and other places of work as well. The thermostat can be set four or five degrees lower; the hours of heating can be restricted; all lamps need not be lit at all times; weaker bulbs may be adequate. There are innumerable ways in which savings can be made in the home as illustrated in the regular advertisements now published by my Department. Similarly it should be possible for industry and commerce to make real savings. Many of their practices may be wasteful in energy though up to now financially justified; but we are now moving into a dear energy economy and the economics of such practices may be sound no longer. All industrial and commercial users of energy should scrutinise and rethink the pattern of their consumption. Not only convenience but jobs may depend upon it.

In appealing for economy by all, and indeed I would now recommend it as a most practical form of patriotism, I do not wish to create panic or unnecessary fears. The present level of supply could in the short term be tolerated both by individuals and by the economy without serious hardship. But the most recent reports of a further cut-back by the Arab countries may make a further reduction in the level of supplies inevitable. As the situation clarifies I shall have to consider what further reductions in deliveries may be necessary. We would be foolish to expect an early end to severe restrictions on supplies of oil. Moreover, though oil may come back into unrestricted supply at some date in the future, there will never be cheap oil again. We, in common with other countries in the west, have come to take cheap energy for granted and it has been in large measure the basis for much of our industrial development. The future will be somewhat different, though I do not think that anyone is in a position to forecast now how the new situation will affect growth or development either in Ireland or elsewhere.

It is essential that we should maintain the closest watch on the trend of events and foresee the possible effects on our economy and provide as far as possible against them. The Government have decided to set up a broadly based consultative committee to advise during the present critical situation in relation to measures which may be necessary in the future. I am in consultation with my colleagues about the precise membership and functions of this body and I hope to be able to make an announcement shortly. In the meantime, a small inter-departmental committee has been set up and is engaged in developing a methodology to monitor and forecast the effects of the shortages in the different sectors of the economy.

I would finally conclude by reiterating, as I hope to reiterate in coming weeks, my appeal to all to conserve fuel to the utmost whether it be in the form of petrol, heating oil, electricity or gas. They are all part of the common fund of energy on which we rely to maintain our economy and the welfare of our people. No measure of economy that anyone can practise is too little. Every light switched off, every unoccupied room left unheated, every car left at home in favour of public transport is a worthwhile effort in this case. The Government are determined to take all steps necessary to maintain essential services and employment at the highest possible level but they can successfully do so only if they continue to receive the full and generous help of the public in securing every possible economy.

Before I sit down, I should say that that speech was largely prepared over the weekend up to last night and since then, as Deputies may gather from the second paragraph, page 2, further information has come to my notice that presents an even grimmer picture. I should like to bring to the notice of Deputies that this morning I received an intimation from the oil companies in this country that to the best of their knowledge supplies of energy from January on will be down by 30 per cent. I have not been able to get a firm confirmation of that from England or European countries but, if this is so, it would be impossible to exaggerate the effect that this would have on our economy in terms of growth, employment and the very standard of living that we have been enjoying up to now. Our whole economy, the growth in our economy, has been based, of course, on energy that is supplied as to 70 per cent by oil and if that is reduced, then everybody here and I hope everybody outside will realise the effects this could have on employment and on growth.

The situation is extremely serious. The Government have up to now taken the right steps in handling it. If it becomes worse, of course, we will have to ration petrol. As I have said, petrol is only 15 per cent of our consumption of oil and it will be very unimportant whether private cars are on the road at all or not, not to mind petrol rationing. If the situation worsens, then of course we will have to ration petrol. That is not the important thing. Many people do not realise that you cannot switch the petrol saved by rationing into running an industry. There is a special type of oil needed for that and this is the one we must endeavour to use as sparingly as possible.

As I said last week, as I have said a number of times since I first started talking about this two months ago, it is essential as the most practical form of patriotism in the immediate future, whatever about the long term—we will have to devise plans for long-term supply of energy because all growth is based on the availability of energy —if we are to maintain the level of employment at the moment and the standard of living that we have, that every single person in the country cuts down their use of energy to the minimum, whatever source it comes from, be it electricity, gas or oil. It may be necessary that in the New Year, if this voluntary restriction on the use of energy is not complied with by the people, they will be compulsorily restricted. We will do this if we have to but we will do it primarily to maintain the fullest number of people in employment. This is the prime concern of the Government at the moment, to ensure that people continue in their employment and that our standard of living is maintained at its present level.

I must continue to warn about the effect of this situation which is changing rapidly from day to day. It is very serious at the moment. If the news that I had this morning and which I have just given to the House is true of a 30 per cent reduction, then it could become extremely serious and there could be a diminution in the growth of the economy and some unemployment in the New Year.

It is essential that we start now and that everybody agrees to cut back the use of energy from now on. This situation will not just pass away. This is not a cloud that will disappear when the winter is over and we turn off the central heating. We are facing a period in the economy of the western world when energy will not only be scarce but extremely dear. We can never again look forward to a position where petrol or oil products will be available at the prices we have been accustomed to and which we have come to expect. We complained when there was a minimal price increase but never again shall we see petrol and oil available anywhere in the western world at the prices at which it has been available in the past ten years.

This is a very serious situation for the country and it is extremely important that we should all realise that everybody's efforts are required. We can get over it with the minimum damage to the economy but we can only do that with the co-operation, help and full understanding of the Deputies and the public that the situation is serious and warrants our closest attention.

Mr. Barrett

When we requested this debate last week we were of opinion from the information available to us and what we were able to believe from reports on the oil situation that we were slowly heading for a very serious crisis in this country. The Minister's statement has confirmed our fears and for that reason alone it is well to have this debate and also in order to highlight the seriousness of the situation to all the people and exhort them to do all they can to restrict the use of oil and oil products.

It will be argued that an Opposition has a responsibility to support the Government in a crisis situation. This is true, but it can also be said that an Opposition has a responsibility to awaken the country to what is happening and to the dangers that exist. In July, 1973, the Minister replied to questions from Deputy Timmons and said that at that time reserves amounted to approximately 100 days' supply. He may have been taking those reserves at a period when oil was not being used as extensively as recently when he spoke of lesser reserves, and indicated that we would have reserves sufficient for 45, 50 or even 60 days. That is very different from what we were told in July. We note, also, that these figures include the finished product from a doomsday reserve which we are supposed to have at Whiddy Island. This is a reserve of crude oil only.

We appreciate that we use approximately 5,000,000 tons of oil and of this 2.5 million tons are imported in the from of crude oil. The other 2.5 million tons are imported as a finished product. When the Minister speaks of reserves we would like him to clarify whether he is including in these reserve figures the reserves of bodies such as the ESB, CIE or the Sugar Company. Do these reserve figures include the reserve of private companies such as Cement-Roadstone, Guinness and other big concerns? We should have this information so that we would know our exact reserve position.

The daily headlines have concentrated very much on the chaos at the filling stations, particularly in the Dublin area, but as the Minister said, cars absorb only 15 per cent of our total fuel. However, as he said, there are far wider implications which appear to be about to bring our economy down to a very low level at present. These are the aspects of the situation that need most serious consideration. We would have to get on without cars if that situation came about and I am sure the people would be able to overcome this difficulty, although it could be a tremendous hardship. In order to maintain employment and level production I believe we would be prepared to do this.

The fact that other countries are suffering as we are, particularly in western Europe, is not necessarily an acceptable explanation from our point of view. There are west European countries which are not suffering nearly as much as we are. We face difficulties under various headings that many of these countries do not have. If we take the supply problem first we see that we have a great weakness compared with other EEC countries. We can provide only 50 per cent of our total oil needs: the other 2½ million tons must be imported as a finished product. We now realise that we have only very limited storage capacity in Dublin, which is the principal area of consumption and which is responsible, I understand, for about 60-65 per cent of our total consumption. This creates a very serious problem and this lack of storage is something we should consider immediately and try to remedy. Until we have ample storage we cannot hope to have reserves.

Admittedly, the proposed Nuclear Energy Commission and the setting up of a nuclear plant will help but not until the eighties, a considerable time away now. We must think about what we can do immediately to combat a trend over which we have no control but which was precipitated by the Arab countries. Even though we are told that we are regarded as a friendly nation we certainly are not being treated as a friendly nation in respect of the cuts in our oil supply at present. It is not possible, either, to separate the supply difficulties and cost difficulties because, as the Minister said, costs will go up and up and we shall never again have cheap oil. Cost will be a very serious factor in our supplies in the coming years.

I understand we have been getting the 2½ million tons of finished product through the usual oil distributors, the big companies such as Texaco, Esso, Shell and so on. They have been supplying us only with the surplus from British oil refineries, as far as I know. If this is the case under normal conditions this will surely be a very valuable surplus to the oil companies now. While these people would like to maintain good relations with this country in regard to distribution, and so on, they have a very definite eye on profits each year; nobody is ignorant of the way big oil companies operate throughout the world and profits are their main concern. If this surplus, which we were buying in order to meet half our oil needs, now goes on the open market at higher prices we may not be able to compete for it or to buy it. We have no guarantee from these people that they will continue to let us have this surplus and we must take that factor into consideration.

These people may express the view that they would like to keep up the supply but the profit factor will come into the matter. As the Minister has said the economic implications for us are frightening. The Minister for Labour said during the weekend that it may affect our whole economic situation but this was the first indication we got from the Government. Having regard to the deterioration in the oil supply position it was obvious that this would happen. As far as I know, 95 per cent of our oil originates in the Arab countries who are imposing their embargo on the oil consuming world, particularly on Western Europe.

The electricity supply will be very seriously affected. If the ESB are successful in obtaining sufficient quantities of fuel oil to maintain supply, the fact must be faced that the cost of electricity will increase enormously. The ESB get a certain percentage of their present needs from Russia but I understand that in the contracts they have signed for the oil there are escalating clauses that take account of the prevailing price of oil at any time during the contract period. Thus, if the price of oil from the Arab States and elsewhere is increased, the cost of Russian oil will increase also for the ESB. I would ask the Minister to give us some idea of how much the ESB costs will increase—will it be £5 million or £10 million?

The Minister rightly stressed that industry is all-important. What industries will be affected to a greater extent than others? Obvious ones that come to mind are the Irish Glass Bottle Company and the Waterford Glass Company; indeed, any industry connected with the manufacture of glass will suffer severely. I understand that if even 5 per cent or 10 per cent of the supply is cut they may not be able to make their products because a certain amount of oil is required to make bottles and if the amount is reduced it is not possible to manufacture the product. It is unfortunate that the glass industry is so totally dependent on oil but that is unavoidable now. The plastic industry will also be in trouble. For instance, Wavin Pipes and tyre manufacturers will be adversely affected. I understand it takes five gallons of crude oil to make a tyre.

These are obvious industries that will be affected but to some extent all our industries are dependent on oil. In addition, the increased costs will affect our balance of payments and exports. Every feature of our industrial and economic life will be seriously affected by the shortage of oil as well as by the increased prices we are bound to have in the very near future.

Drivers and domestic users of oil will also be affected. Many towns have been built in rural areas principally because transport was readily available to workers to take them to their work. Whether it was outside Cork or Dublin, people have tended to live outside the city and to travel to the centre to their places of work. All these people will be under a serious handicap. It is no use thinking CIE will be able to bridge the gap because with the shortage of oil that will affect them and the increased costs they will not have a hope of catering for the increased traffic throughout the country. They are not equipped to do this. If there was a complete cut in petrol consumption for private cars tomorrow there would be utter chaos. The Government will have to give serious thought to this aspect. Housing will also be in trouble because many houses and flats are totally dependent on central heating, whether oil or electricity, and have no fireplaces.

Agriculture is one industry that must be catered for as favourably as possible. Having regard to the economic crisis we will face, agriculture will be the only industry we have that will help us to overcome this crisis. We must maximise agricultural production to the highest level in order to keep some semblance of sanity in our balance of payments position and our general economic growth in the coming months. I would ask the Minister to give very serious thought to the important industry of agriculture when considering the oil situation.

It is obvious that rationing must come. The people can do a lot, as the Minister has said, and I am sure they will rise to the occasion as they have done in the past. However, such measures will certainly not remedy the crisis situation we are facing. The first and most important thing is to try to increase our storage and we must face this fact. The only way it can be done is to prevail on the oil companies to co-operate with the Government in building the necessary storage tanks to store more oil and thus build up our reserves as soon as possible to a level that will keep our industries going for a longer period than that already mentioned.

In the mid- or long-term the most obvious method is to build oil refineries because it is the only sure way of having supplies of oil for future needs. The example that comes to mind immediately in this matter is France. That country is completely independent of the present oil crisis as far as I am aware. That is my information but the Minister for Industry and Commerce may contradict it. The reason France is independent is that they have a 100 per cent State-owned company and another company that is 80 per cent State-owned. The two principles on which the French oil supply is based are: (1) the source of supply and (2) its capacity to refine that supply. These oil companies, which are practically fully State owned, have secured sources, some of them in the Arab countries—Libya and Saudi Arabia— and some in Nigeria and other west African countries. They have been able to maintain the flow of crude oil to their refineries. They have the capacity to refine it and at the moment they seem to be the one nation not facing a serious problem. Britain is probably facing a more serious problem than ourselves. With their serious economic situation announced over the last few weeks and with the oil crisis adding to that, Britain will probably be the worst hit of all. Here are we depending on the surplus we get from those refineries.

We must set out to build oil refineries. Where we build them is another question, but build them we must. They should be sited in the most economic places possible for the purpose of distribution in order to cut down costs. When attempts were made before to build oil refineries all sorts of organisations—I am not denigrating any of them—such as An Taisce went out and kicked up a hell of a row about pollution, about the environment and so forth. We will be in a far worse state if this crisis develops and goes on developing. Is it not important to secure a supply of oil, even with some slight harm to the environment or some slight pollution? A study was done by a state agency on one of the proposed oil refineries and they came up with the opinion that the amount of pollution or damage that would be done to the environment was negligible. We must face up to the fact that we must have a modern, properly run, oil refinery which will be capable of supplying our needs, refining as a finished product the 2½ million tons of crude oil which we have now to import. The sooner we have those facilities the better and more secure will our economy be. We should set about establishing such a refinery immediately, even though it might be two or three years before it becomes functional. People seem to run every time they hear of an oil refinery nowadays but I should like to quote from a report issued by the OECD Oil Committee in 1973. This was a group set up to study the oil needs of the member countries. At paragraph 163 it recommended:

When an area is dependent upon outside sources of supply for oil it is on economic grounds preferable to import this supply in the form of crude oil for refining in the area itself. Costs of transport are lower for crude oil compared to equivalent amounts of petroleum products. In some consuming countries refineries are demanded for reasons of regional or industrial policies, or for the profits available in this downstream activity. Moreover, there would appear to be more security in supply in imports of crude than in imports of products. A loss of a crude source can be made up more easily under today's market than can the loss of a product source.

Finally, crude oil is considered less expensive to import (in terms of foreign exchange) than the equivalent in products, and for this reason, crude imports are more attractive for balance of payments reasons. OECD Europe has substantially moved towards self-sufficiency in refining capacity. Within the past two decades the relative reliance of OECD Europe on imports of petroleum products has declined from 37 per cent of total supply in 1950 to about 5 per cent in 1970. Inasmuch as demand for products has roughly tripled during that time, this has meant that refining capacity has been established at an even greater rate.

I have quoted that to back up my argument that the only real solution to the oil problem is to set about building ourselves an oil refinery which will be adequate to refine the 50 per cent of our oil requirements which are now being imported as the finished product. The Government should tackle this seriously as of now. I hope they will, for the sake of our economy.

For the immediate future it is very difficult to decide on the best way to fill the gap. The Minister might tease out the possibility of buying oil from other places. There was an announcement at the weekend that the President of Romania, who is now visiting America, offered to sell oil to the United States. It might be well to make some contact with Romania to see whether it is possible to buy oil from them. I understand he was talking about the finished product. If this could be made available to us at present it would help to tide us over our present emergency. I understand it is very good quality oil. It might be worth our while too from the point of view of cost because they would be exporting it from Constanza and the Black Sea through the Mediterranean and it would not have to come around the Cape in large tankers as much as our crude oil must do. I would ask the Minister, in view of that statement, to investigate whether they would have oil to sell to us.

I appreciate the Minister's concern and I endorse everything he said in asking the people to do everything humanly possible to conserve our oil supplies so that we may at least be able to protect our essential and vital industries, our industrial and agricultural life and other essential services. As in the past during emergencies and rationing periods, I am sure the nation will be fully prepared to pull up its socks, to tighten the belt and to comply with the Minister's exhortations to do everything possible.

Mr. Tunney

It would be a poor member of a very poor Opposition who would attempt to make political capital out of the position in which the Minister finds himself now. On this, the first occasion on which I have spoken on any matter connected directly with the Department of Transport and Power, I wish to extend to the Minister my best wishes for him in his Office and also to offer him my sympathy in the predicament in which he is placed as a result of the oil crisis.

I intend speaking only for about 15 minutes but during that time I hope to put forward a couple of random thoughts that may be of assistance to the Minister. I would ask him to bear with me while, in the course of my comments, I make a plea in respect of sections of the community distinct from those to which Deputy Barrett, who has spoken at length and with greater knowledge than I, has referred.

In viewing the situation as of now one travelling into the centre of the city sees several double-decker buses carrying only half their capacity and many motor cars travelling towards the city centre carrying, perhaps, only one passenger. No doubt one would find also that the compartments on trains are not full to capacity either while motor cars carrying only one or two passengers travel long distances. Taking these factors into consideration we must have regard to what could happen early next year. In this context I wonder whether the Minister could consider offering free bus transport to the people of Dublin and free train transport to those who travel long distances. This idea may sound somewhat revolutionary but unless the problem is tackled now in some such way we may find that in 12 months' time the buses, trains and motor cars will be lying idle. Justification for a free transport service such as I have mentioned could be offered to the erstwhile motorists of Dublin on the grounds that these people have already paid substantial tax in respect of their cars but they will not be able to derive from their cars the service to which they would be entitled normally.

Perhaps after the Minister has considered this proposal he may be in a position to indicate the difficulties that would arise from its implementation but it is an area where I believe some saving could be made. On the question of a saving, those of us who listen to the radio in the mornings learn of the areas of the city where roadworks are taking place and where, consequently, there are serious traffic problems and we all know that the delays caused by these problems result in an increased consumption of petrol and oil. Perhaps the Minister might have discussions with the trade unions concerned so as to ascertain whether these roadworks might be undertaken from 7 or 8 o'clock in the evening onwards. There is adequate public lighting on the main streets and having regard to the hardship that would be circumvented by carrying out the work during the hours I have suggested trade unions might accept in respect of the workers they represent that it would be better for these workers to tolerate the hardships that would accrue from working unusual hours rather than to have a situation in which they would have no opportunity of working.

I hope, too, that the situation in regard to heavy lorries, such as those carrying cattle, may be reviewed and that an appeal may be made to the people concerned to arrange for the lorries to travel, in so far as possible, at certain times when it might be arranged that the roads would be open to them only during those hours.

So far as the railways are concerned we now see the folly of having accepted that the steam engine was required no longer. While outside Rome last year I was pleased to note that the Italians had not been as foolish as us and that they had retained their steam engines. Perhaps ours are in cold storage here. If so, to reactivate them would be a means of conserving our supplies of oil which are steadily being exhausted.

Regarding oil for heating purposes, some of us are lucky enough to have fireplaces in addition to having central heating and, therefore, I would not have any great sympathy for anyone in that position. However, there are areas in this city—I am thinking particularly of Ballymun— where people are depending entirely for heating on central heating. Therefore, we should not regard central heating as a luxury in such circumstances. We can appeal to these people to reduce their heating, and no doubt they will be happy to respond, but we must accept that heating is as essential to those people as is fuel to keep the wheels of industry turning. This will be especially true in the months ahead.

Again, perhaps the Minister in his consideration of the allocation of whatever resources we have or we anticipate having, might spare a special thought for the people of the Gaeltacht or those who would be described as living in the more backward areas, who might be accepted as being dependent to a far greater degree on the supply of oil than people living in urban areas.

Another area in which it might be possible to effect some economies is our schools. I might say in passing that I am not at all enamoured with the situation which often obtains where children are reporting to schools and are being told that, because of a shortage or an absence of oil supply, no school will be held on that day. In city areas this can create major problems because both parents may have already gone to work and the children return home to locked houses and there is no one to supervise them until late afternoon. School authorities should be asked to give an early indication of whether they have a supply. If they anticipate that schools will not be operative because they have not got a supply, word should be sent to the parents at least 24 hours before.

With regard to transportation in the mornings, I wonder whether the schools might be asked to make a contribution by changing the starting time. In the morning when people are going to their places of employment children are in the same queues, as they are entitled to be, waiting to be brought to school. Perhaps this situation could be helped by making the starting time half an hour later. This would encourage people who are using cars to leave them at home and travel by bus.

I should like to compliment the ESB, notwithstanding serious opposition and criticism at the time, on their foresight and tenacity in staying with the Turlough Hill project. It was claimed that because of the ready supply of oil, and because of the fact that 50 to 60 per cent of power came from oil, hydro-electric power was obsolete and was not worth the effort or the investment. The present unfortunate position indicates, inter alia, that the foresight of the ESB who stayed with the Turlough Hill project was justified. I hope the Minister gets all the support and guidance he requires at the moment. I would also wish him oil but I am afraid my wish could not give it to him. I have no criticism of his handling of the situation to date.

There is one trivial matter which, perhaps, I should not even mention. There were days last week when motorists in Dublin were not in sympathy with the Minister when he told them there was plenty of oil. In the few days that have elapsed they have had evidence that what the Minister was saying was absolutely correct. Because of the manner in which people were panicking the emergency was arising. He indicated to them what the position was but they were reluctant to accept it.

There is no doubt at all about the serious position which exists in relation to the whole question of power. I want no flippant remark here from in front or behind me. I am not talking about political power. I trust the Minister will have the assistance and co-operation of all.

Minister for Industry and Commerce (Mr. Keating)

I should like to tease out a little the aspects of the current power crisis and the current oil crisis, particularly in relation to the area of my own responsibility, and particularly in relation to industry. I do not intend to deal with the matters of supply which have been and will be dealt with by others. I want to deal more with the matter of energy usage and its effect on the economy than the matter of securing energy.

I should like to say first that this is a profoundly serious situation in which we find ourselves. The most recent round in the fighting between Israel and the adjoining Arab states took most countries in the world as much by surprise as it took the Israelis. It has created a new situation, a situation of a quite profoundly new kind. Having set the scene in that way, perhaps, this is the appropriate moment for me to indicate that I think the speeches from the other side of the House are examples of a responsible and serious attitude to a profoundly serious problem. For me that is a matter of pleasure, and for all of us.

Dr. Cruise-O'Brien

Hear, hear.

Mr. Keating

The events of October created a profoundly new situation in the world. If we look at the economies of the free market world since the late 40s we see a period of almost uninterrupted growth—with one little hiccough in the middle 50s—speaking of the economies as a whole. There was already evidence from the beginning of this year that that long period of growth—indeed longer than either the optimists or pessimists had predicted—if not ending permanently was at least turning down. That evidence existed before the oil crisis started in October. We have a shortage of energy and particularly a shortage of oil coming at a time when already by the late summer the Japanese economy, which had been the economic wonder of the world in a sense for a decade or more, was already slowing and a number of other major economies also.

We had the circumstance that not the Minister for Transport and Power, not any Member of this House, not any person anywhere could indicate exactly what the oil and energy perspectives for Europe are at this time. One of the key components of the present crisis is the uncertainty, the unpredictability; nobody can know whether there will be a rapid conclusion of peace between Israel and the Arab states, which, I think, is something everyone profoundly wishes, and therefore a resolution of the crisis of energy supply or whether, indeed, at the opposite end of the spectrum of awfulness there will be a further outcome of fighting. It is impossible to tell.

It is, perhaps, well that I remind the House that on the 6th November of this year the Foreign Ministers of the Nine made a very important statement, a unanimous statement of those Foreign Ministers, reiterating the conditions in which they would wish to see peace. Indeed, this resolution of the Nine was very much in line with the pre-existing position of the Irish Government over a long period and that is a policy that anti-dates the formation of this Government by a considerable time. We had always been upholders of the now famous Resolution 242 of the United Nations and this, in a sense, was a reiteration of 242, this November 6th statement of the Foreign Ministers of the Nine, indicating the basis on which we would wish to see a lasting peace.

The point I am making in this context is not to reiterate our foreign policy position, about which I think there is very general agreement, but to indicate that it is impossible at this moment to predict with certainty whether the shortage of oil will remain approximately the same, or rapidly deteriorate, or the difficulty will rapidly resolve itself. It is a period of great uncertainty. We had the circumstance of a certain economic down-turn anyway which was taking place in the world economy.

There is one other aspect relevant to the development of our economy which has not been referred to, and, indeed, if there was even an example of the interdependence of economies, this is it, because no country of the Nine or no country of the world, of the free trading market economy world, will escape this if others suffer severely. None can survive alone. If I disagree a little with Deputy Barrett in regard to France it is because, though I agree with the general tenor of what he said about France, the French will, though less than others, feel not just the direct oil shortage, which they will feel a little, but will feel very severely the indirect repercussions on other economies of their neighbours.

This is not a situation which any nation can survive individually because of the interpenetration of economies. The circumstance is that, with the increase in the price of oil, the Arab countries will become, over a short period, a period of months, the possessors of much of the reserves which Europe and the United States now hold. They will become the possessors. The extrapolation from this year to next year is a growth of almost three times the current reserves they hold over 12 months and they possess the power to move those reserves around the world. They do not simply possess an oil weapon, which they do possess and which they are wielding effectively, but they possess a currency reserve as well which, in the long term, is an even more powerful weapon. This is another factor in the whole situation.

If we tease out the matter of prices, the energy input goes into every product, be it wheat—there is an energy input both by fertilisers and by tractor fuel—be it plastics, not just for fabricating them but actually making the raw material, be it any industrial or agricultural product, there is an energy input in it; if you, therefore, have a rapid increase in the price of oil—I could say, in parentheses, that even if the volume of supply returns to the pre-crisis level, the price will never go back down and that sudden input from the increase of energy cost into the end price of a whole range of products is inescapable and is potentially very socially destructive. It is coming at a time of very severe inflation, world wide, and it is coming on top of that. It is, I think, fair to say that that is an evolution which none of the pundits, whether they were energy economists or politicians, or whatever they were, were thinking of at the beginning of October of this year. It is a new factor in the whole prices spiral and it is a serious one.

Mr. Crowley

May I ask the Minister if his Department have made any study at all of alternative sources of energy and could he tell us how long the transition will take from oil to that alternative energy?

Mr. Keating

I intend to deal with that later on but only in so far as it involves my Department. Much of it will be the responsibility of the Minister for Transport and Power, who will be replying to the debate. It is a serious question. I will deal with my section of it later on. We could, of course, tease out the effects of this increase in cost and, more seriously, of the diminution of oil, of energy of all kinds, because energy is interchangeable. If you have a shortage of oil you have a greater demand for other energy sources and then they go into short supply as well. All energy has to be considered globally. Deputy Barrett dealt with this in his speech, with the effect of whole sectors of industry and, when one looks, one finds that, in fact, there is no sector of industry unaffected, some more acutely than others obviously, and this presents, particularly to my own Department and to the Government as a whole, the responsibility of quantifying need, sector by sector in a very precise way. Deputy Barrett gave the example of glass. If you do not keep the heat up and the stuff cools your manufacture is done for. They must have 100 per cent. There are others who can have diminishing proportions of their requirements and a very careful analysis of the way you move around the available energy resource to keep industry maximised in its function needs detailed study and the mechanism for that detailed study has, indeed, been set up, is beginning to function, and more details of that will be given to the House at a later stage. The point to make about the immediate effect on industry is that there is no unaffected sector and it requires very detailed and delicate planning to see that, if you do not have enough, you share what you have got absolutely to optimise its value in terms of keeping production going.

Again, it is easy to tease out the effects in a superficial way in regard to agriculture, but the detailed teasing out of those effects is a matter for careful study. This also is in course of being lifted off because it is not just a matter of energy for machinery; it is also a matter that fertilisers are, one might say, congealed energy in a sense. They are largely produced, currently, from oil sources. That applies also to so many of the fine chemicals now essential for the efficient functioning of agriculture to a high yield. The ramifications there are also enormous.

Another particular concern of my Department is the matter of the formation of new industry because clearly many industries, while they will not abolish a project, will just decide to pause for a while because there is no point in going ahead and building a plant for which extra new energy will not be available. This naturally presents very serious matters for re-thinking and it is, indeed, a cloud over the remarkable industrial growth that had been achieved in job creation, volume production and exports in the recent past.

One can go on then, to the social effects in the matter of electricity and gas not just from the point of view of availability but also from the point of view of cost. These are matters that are being looked at with the greatest vigour because we need detailed planning against the contingency we all hope will never arise, but the only prudent policy of the Government is to take the path that it may arise and that we must be fore-armed with detailed investigation and with ranges of contingency plans. Our attitude as a Government—it is, I think, the attitude of the Opposition—is not an attitude of panic. That is not the attitude of the House. Neither is it the attitude of the people. That is not the style of the country, of this House or of the Government. It is not an attitude of panic. We have seen a little indiscipline in the matter of petrol supplies which, I think, is now waning. In general, we have been calm and realistic. We are in the course of assessing the scale, the magnitude, the possible danger, but we are doing it in a disciplined, calm, mature and responsible way. I think that can be fairly said for the nation as a whole and for the whole of this House.

I want to assure the people as a whole, through this forum, that our view of it is that it poses a very serious potential threat to our whole economic and social well-being of a profound kind. This is not to create panic. We are, indeed, far from panic. There are real perspectives. I emphasised at the beginning the uncertainty, the impossibility of predicting what supplies will look like in three months time and what the economy will look like in five or six months time. Nobody can claim to have the wisdom to make a blueprint and say "It will be like this" or "It will be like that". What one can do, and what prudent Government requires, is the most detailed planning based on the most detailed investigation and that is being done.

Speakers from this side of the House and from the Opposition have made practical suggestions. At a time like this we have need of all the wit and talent of the country. I know from my Department and other Departments that we will not reject sensible and practical suggestions on the basis that they come from a responsible Opposition. Rather the contrary. We want the input of the talent of the whole country at a time like this. We welcome it. We welcome it in the sense that it has already been given in this debate. We hope for a resolution of the energy crisis. We need to plan, as we have started to do, in detail for the immediate situation. I do not propose to invade the area of responsibility of the Minister for Transport and Power but some parts of it are industrial matters.

The whole question of energy policy, if I use it in its most global sense, involves the whole of our society. We will never be profligate with fossil fuels, whether oil or other fuels, again in the world's history in the way in which we were up to very recently. That time will never come again. Possibly, in the long-term, we will see it as the beginning of the wisdom in the way in which we use the earth's resources forced on us by a crisis but producing a good result.

It seems to me that we have an energy policy which breaks into three sectors. One is the sort of immediate response to a crisis situation in regard to the availability of the energy, in regard to its allocation and the minimising of its use, that is the detailed planning which is going on at this time. Secondly, we have a middle level which would comprise, for example, the building of refineries and extra storage space to which Deputy Barrett and others referred. In the long-term we have the fundamental provision of energy, the rapid exhaustion of the world's supplies of fossil energy and the research and industrial building of facilities, such as the recent decision about a nuclear power station which will make mankind in general, and this island in particular, independent of fossil fuels over the period of a few decades. Apart from their shortage they will become important as the basis or the synthesis of new material rather than as things you burn for energy. There is a growing recognition, a worldwide recognition of a need for a detailed energy policy with three layers, short, middle and long. Certain aspects of that are being actively pursued. This is an area in which a great deal more national thought and effort by scientists, as well as politicians and administrators, is necessary, pretty briskly in the near future to get a current energy policy.

It is fair that we look frankly at the dangers of the present situation. This is the right place to do it so that the people as a whole can be aware of our thoughts and minds. It is fair also that we put this crisis into the context of the world. This was unforeseen, not just by us but by almost everyone. It has come very rapidly. The Japanese economy, which is so intensely dependent on imported oil, is in much more difficult circumstances than ours. This is a world-wide phenomenon, and its effect is world-wide. Even if we could get all the oil we wanted, there would still be grave repercussions on our economy because we are a country building more and more on exports. If demand in Germany, Japan and the United Kingdom turn down, this will have grave repercussions on our economy. Even if we had all the oil we could use, we would not have all the orders we could use. As I have said, this is a world-wide crisis and one which no one country can solve alone. When I say "solve", one can either react courageously, vigorously and with foresight or one can fail to react. One cannot solve it alone. Its solution is international. It shows the inter-relationship and interdependence of many economies much more acutely than anything in the last quarter of a century.

It is fair that we tell the people about the dangers, not guaranteeing that they will arrive but profoundly hoping that they will not arrive, facing them squarely and talking about them. It is obligatory that we indicate the direction of our thoughts in regard to planning, countermeasures, the use of all our ingenuity and national discipline, and I think it is fair to use the word "patriotism" to call on a response from the people if it becomes necessary—and we hope it will not—in a very disciplined way to minimise these risks.

A debate like this, approached in the way in which it has been approached by all sides, is profoundly useful and is an opportunity for those of us not directly responsible, as is the Minister for Transport and Power, with the supply of oil, to tease out the effects on the economy and indicate the direction of our thoughts. I wish to express my gratitude, and the Government's gratitude, for the seriousness, calmness and responsibility with which this serious situation has been faced. I emphasise again that this is a serious situation which may never materialise. The only prudent course is to plan, to work out details and to have ready all the counter-measures on the basis that the less desirable or advantageous options will materialise. This is the only way to approach it. It is the way we are approaching it.

Mr. Meaney

We are taking this debate very seriously. Anybody who has listened to the speeches by the two Ministers will realise that we are facing a very grim situation. We accept our role as Opposition in a responsible manner and will offer our advice. Any criticism we make will be constructive rather than personal. The other speakers covered a very wide field.

Everybody is aware of the implications of the oil shortage. Once again it is a case of a small nation being tossed around in the waves of international politics and our economy being almost shipwrecked. The Minister for Industry and Commerce spoke about the great economic growth which had been made throughout the world. The more economic growth which took place the more dependent we became on oil and electricity. Then came the oil crisis. The Arab-Israeli war was the cause of this trouble. We seem to have got completely caught up in it. We are depending on the oil companies for our requirements which they are purchasing through Great Britain. Is there any fear that at any time in the near future the British Government can say that they will freeze the oil assets and we will be out in the cold? Oil has been freely available in the last few years and the present situation was not foreseen. The Minister and his advisers should be on the alert lest there might be a loophole whereby any country, such as Britain, could freeze oil supplies coming to this country.

In connection with the Arab-Israeli war it must be remembered that this nation is playing a big part in trying to preserve the ceasefire. Our troops are in the Middle East. Yet this country is suffering from a lack of oil from Arab countries. The Minister has not indicated that he is seeking oil other than through the traditional channels. Deputy Barrett has suggested Romania as a country with which the United States are trying to make a deal. Would there be any point now in our making contact with Arab countries as a country that is a member of the United Nations and that has troops in the Middle East, doing a service to these people? We should not go cap in hand. We should make a direct request to some of these Arab nations that they should intercede on our behalf.

It may be suggested that the Arab-Israeli war is the cause of all our troubles. I pose the question: would the present situation have arisen in any event? Are the Arab countries involved so rich that they do not require the royalties from oil? They have invested money all over the world, in the sterling area and in the dollar area. Articles have been published suggesting that it would be better for the Arabs to leave the oil in the ground for 40 years when it would command a higher price. The sources of oil are not inexhaustible.

It is doubtful if the oil supplies are as plentiful as they were in the past. Certainly oil will never again be as cheap as it has been. I recall what Herr Willi Brandt said to the Germans: "This winter we will be cold but we will not be hungry." Are there any implications in that in regard to the future world economy? I hope not.

There is one criticism I have to make which I hope is constructive. In an addendum to his speech the Minister said that he had got news this morning that there would be a cut-back of 30 per cent of oil supplies in the month of January. Then he said that he had not had firm confirmation of that as yet. If six or seven hours can elapse before such a statement can be confirmed or otherwise, something should be done about that. In the present situation six or seven hours represents a great deal of time. It might be a matter of having enough oil to keep going or not having enough oil.

Perhaps the Minister would like to state what the attitude of the EEC is. It might be more prudent not to state what that attitude is. What is the attitude of the Foreign Ministers of the Council in regard to the present position? Will the nine member states stand together and help one another? I do not know what the position is. There are people who say that it may be more prudent not to mention what their attitude is, for many reasons, but I should like the Minister to refer to it when he is replying.

The Minister has said, quite rightly, that agriculture and industry must be kept going and must get priority. In a situation such as exists at present, where there is a shortfall of oil, a decision has to be made as to how best to use the available supply; should oil be rationed or should the present system be allowed to continue? Employment must be maintained and industry and agriculture must be kept going as a matter of top priority. All Deputies subscribe to that view. There are many of us here who could do with a little less motoring. If there is any further cut-back in oil supplies the private motoring section would be the people who would feel the pinch first.

As the Minister for Industry and Commerce said, when one considers the position one realises all the effects it will have. In regard to agriculture, the supply of fertilisers will be affected. The responsible Minister should consider that aspect of the matter and ensure that supplies will be available. He should also consider the method of distribution.

There will be a scarcity of petroleum products and plastics of various kinds. The supply of alkaline will be very limited next year. All these matters must be taken into consideration.

We on this side of the House must express our views, personal or otherwise, as to what should be done and what should not be done. There is one way in which petrol could be spared. In built-up urban areas it is customary to see long traffic jams. The Minister for Transport and Power should contact the Minister for Local Government and the Garda Síochána with a view to eliminating these traffic jams. It may be suggested that these traffic jams are caused by the volume of traffic but the traffic jams that I refer to are the result of water schemes and sewerage schemes being left unfinished and road works being carried out. Very often road work is left unfinished over the winter months and is resumed in the next financial year. The Minister should advise the Minister for Local Government that such works should be finished as quickly as possible. The money should be provided, where necessary. The various local authorities should be instructed to see to it that the work is done. I have no doubt that there would be a ready response from them. The Minister for Local Government should instruct local authorities to see to it that hazards of the kind I have mentioned which cause traffic jams should be eliminated immediately. I have no doubt that the money will be readily available.

There are many areas in which the Minister will consider restricting oil supplies. However, the school transport system should be maintained and should get a high priority. If the school transport service is reduced parents will be tempted to drive their children to school, with a consequent waste of petrol. If necessary, the school week could be shortened by one day. There could be discussions with the INTO, managers' associations and the Department of Education in regard to lengthening the school day by an hour or two and having Friday or Monday a free day. This would result in saving of petrol in the school transport service. I should like the Department to take note of my suggestions.

Deputy Tunney referred to central heating. There is central heating which is necessary and there is central heating which is a luxury. Any effort the Minister makes to determine what central heating is necessary and should get an adequate supply of oil will get the full support of this side of the House.

The Minister said that he had established an oil advisory committee. I take this to be a committee to which complaints can be made. Many people are complaining, for many reasons. It is only right that there should be a committee where complaints could be heard. Complaints come in the main from persons starting up an industry who find that they cannot get a supply of oil to satisfy their needs. They should be able to contact somebody who would be able to issue an instruction that they should be supplied and who will see to it that they will get a supply. In the agricultural sector young farmers starting on their own have to seek a supply of diesel oil for their tractors. Some are successful, some are not. I have given cases to the Minister already. It is a good thing that this committee should be established for the benefit of these people.

There are some people who seem to have a very strong grievance, people who are a long time in business, but who in October, 1972, did not use their usual supply of oil. The present allocation is based on what was used in October, 1972. There was one firm which had its own supply of oil but the machinery went completely out of order. I had another case of a firm that was on strike at that time and as a result were not using their normal quota of oil. I have no doubt the Minister will be able to satisfy those people and, perhaps, refer back to a period a short time previously when they were in full production. These are the general complaints we meet.

The Minister rightly gave much advice to people as we saw in the papers about turning off lights and lowering the heat and so on but we in this House, and the Government especially, will have to set a very good example. My information is that the Minister himself has changed his mode of transport and I compliment him on that. H now travels by rail to his home and that is a good example which other Government members should follow. A deputation which I accompanied last week were not very complimentary because they were in a room here which they felt was overheated. If there is to be a general cutdown on heating in Government offices the same regulations should apply in Leinster House. The example should begin here where we are exhorting people to economise.

Irrespective of whether oil becomes plentiful or not, it will never again be as cheap: it will be very dear. I suppose the day has gone when taxing various oils will be a method of getting revenue to balance the budget. There are certain cases in which, if the price goes very high and there is a tax included, it will raise the cost of living. If the Minister introduces rationing, he will have no difficulty in sorting out such cases so as to see that they get tax-free oil. I am sure he will bear that in mind when the time comes. I think there is no doubt that the future will show that rationing will have to be introduced. I suppose the Minister does not want to be first in the field in rationing oil, petrol, diesel oil, gas and so on, but in a situation like this we must consider what is the fairest system.

It is all right to say that there is a general reduction of 10, 15 or 20 per cent but we are depending on the various distributors, the wholesalers and retailers, to allocate supplies fairly. This will be done probably in about 80 per cent of cases but the other 20 per cent of people do not seem to care what they do. I know of various garages where petrol is freely available on condition you buy other goods. I know where you can fill your tank if you buy £2 or £3 worth of groceries. That is most unfair. I have proof of it. There are such cases, perhaps less than 20 per cent, and they are giving the present system a bad name. The only way of getting around this, I suppose, is to introduce general oil rationing. When you have your coupon you will get full value whether you are rich or poor.

We know we are facing a grim future. We know that when oil becomes plentiful it will never again be as cheap as it was. In the past we often had to tighten our belts and it is likely that we shall have to do so again in the future. It will be some time before we shall have the nuclear energy station. I suppose other forms of heating will become popular again. In my constituency there is a very big bog in one place and at present there is a big queue for an allocation of turf, briquettes and so on. May I ask the Minister to ensure that this fuel will not also become scarce and ensure that the less-well-off members of the community who have open fires—many of them have no central heating or electricity which will be very dear—will have sufficient turf briquettes available and that the supply which appears adequate at present but which in time will not be adequate for our needs, will not be gobbled up by the better-off members of the community?

An Leas-Cheann Comhairle

Deputy Crowley.

Mr. Coogan

Is it in order for two Fianna Fáil speakers to follow one after the other?

Mr. Crowley

The Deputy should have been listening to the Taoiseach.

An Leas-Cheann Comhairle

The position, as the Deputy is aware, is that with the Order today it was agreed that the Minister would have a half-hour opening and a half-hour closing, that there would be one other Government speaker and that the remaining time would be for the Opposition.

(Interruptions.)

Mr. Crowley

We have nothing but the utmost sympathy for the Minister in his present predicament and in the predicament, indeed, of the country. Through the weeks he has made several pleas to the people about economising and has assured them that if everybody behaves responsibly supplies will be almost adequate for all. But many of the people we are now asking to cooperate are under a misapprehension. If we could fault the Minister in anything it might be that he has not succeeded in communicating to those people exactly what the position is. Many people find it hard to understand that while we have a 10 per cent cut in our oil allocation, and allowing for the increased usage, the effective cut is 17 per cent or 20 per cent, yet in my own area I know garages that have suffered a 40 per cent cut. People are asking why this is happening. This leads to a certain amount of suspicion. I think it is imperative that the Minister in his concluding speech re-affirm exactly what the position is in total. I should like to hear from him, first, how many days' oil supply we have in stock. That is very important. Precisely what cuts have occurred in our landed supplies? He might also try to indicate, even though I know it will not be easy, what the cut will be for January, February and, perhaps, March. He may not be able to do that. If he can make that kind of forecast it will show his bona fides in the matter.

The most insidious kind of whispering campaign I have been listening to in the last few weeks is that the oil companies are deliberately hoarding their stocks in the certain knowledge that there will be an increase in prices from which they will benefit massively. The Minister should reassure the people this is not the case. I do not believe it is the case but I am not sufficiently au fait with how the oil companies are controlled by the Department, how knowledgeable the Department are about imports or the actual stocks held. I presume the Department have the exact figures but the Minister should give an assurance to the people on this matter.

As the Minister for Industry and Commerce said, it is at a time like this that we ask our people for a display of practical patriotism but this is not easy to achieve if people are under certain delusions. It behoves the Minister to speak in the clearest possible way, to tell us that no such hoarding is going on, as has been alleged by some people. If he does this he will be going a long way towards getting the cooperation of the people.

From the start I believed a system of rationing was far preferable to the queuing, to the underhand dealings Deputy Meaney outlined, and to the kind of blackmail that has occurred in some cases. Of course there are people who will suffer as a result of rationing but in a time of crisis everyone will suffer to some extent. The Minister is taking the right steps in ensuring that at least we can put a rationing system into operation quickly. Of course, it is another story how the system will operate. I had intended pointing out the chronic shortage of diesel oil but everyone seems to be aware of it. I was surprised last Saturday to be visited by 11 people, all of them begging me to get them diesel oil. In my constituency an industrialist cannot get enough diesel oil to put his lorries on the road. Obviously that position is not peculiar to my area; it is on a national scale, probably on a worldwide scale at this stage.

The Minister has an important job to assure the people about the exact position and about the bona fides of all those involved in the present oil situation. He has been talking continuously about this matter for the past few weeks but much of what he has said is not getting through. The queues at the petrol pumps are a typical example of that. Another allegation being made is that the petrol companies are supplying non-tied stations with a view to wooing them in the future to stock their brand of petrol. I do not know if this is going on or on how wide a scale, but if this practice is going on it should be stamped out immediately.

We are going to ask our people to make sacrifices and I know they will be prepared to make them. However, if the present crisis continues the future will be bleak. Unfortunately we will have unemployment, inflation, a reduction in our exports, a balance of payments problem and all the disadvantages associated with a slowed-down economy. That is why it is so important that we plan now for the future. We must call on the reservoir of brains and talent available to look for alternative sources of energy. Deputy Barrett referred to extra storage space and more refineries. That is a valid point but we are still involved with oil and the same thing can happen at any time in relation to the Middle East situation, the area from which our supplies come.

A previous speaker mentioned turf. Can the Minister tell us the present position in relation to Bord na Móna? What kind of reserves or energy are left in the bogs? If there are such reserves how best can we capitalise on them? The Minister might contact the Minister for Local Government and try to insist that from now on a certain type of house is built — I mean the type that will use the energy generated by itself and the occupants of the house. I am assured by experts that is now possible.

Insulating is another way we can save much energy. We are faced with a crisis situation but now is the time to ensure that this situation will not recur. If there is an oil crisis in the world we must make certain we are in a position to meet it and to overcome it.

With my colleagues I sympathise with the Government on the position in which they find themselves. We know this is no time to make political capital out of a situation like this. The Minister can be certain of the fullest possible support from this side of the House in our present difficulties.

Mr. R.P. Burke

As this debate proceeds the value of the request made by the Opposition last week for the debate has been provided by the seriousness with which the various speakers have treated the oil crisis. The value of the debate was particularly emphasised when it elicited from the Minister the information that he was informed this morning of a 30 per cent reduction. In his statement the Minister said:

I have, however, received reports from the oil importing countries this morning that they expect a substantial deterioration in the supply position in the New Year amounting in some cases to as much as 30 per cent of their current requirements.

If this is to be the case, as they say in another House on the other side of the Atlantic "all previous statements are inoperative" and the previous exhortations of the Minister to the people have to be reinforced and doubly reinforced to make sure that oil supplies are conserved and that there is no wastage of our present resources.

The nation is facing an economic crisis with repercussions for all sectors of the economy. This, following the statement of the Minister concerning the 30 per cent reduction in the New Year, is without doubt. Previous speakers on this side have spoken about the national situation, about conserving supplies, about the possibility of other sources of supply, about the erection of oil refineries and other such subjects. I want to bring the mind of the Minister to the problems facing one constituency and this is probably typical of the whole country. I would bring him on a short tour of the constituency of North County Dublin and the problems facing my constituents there. There is there the glasshouse industry, the horticultural industry, the fishing industry, Dublin Airport and Ballymun with houses and apartments that have no source of heating other than oil and gas.

In the case of the glasshouse industry the Minister and the country must be aware that one night's frost, when a glasshouse owner is without supplies, is sufficient to destroy the family income for at least 12 months. I must press the Minister strongly to take action to guarantee continuity of oil supplies for the horticultural industry in North County Dublin and in the country. I feel particularly strongly on this question. The principal areas involved in this industry in my constituency are Rush, Lusk, Skerries and Balbriggan. It is a family business. It gives employment to the sons and daughters in a family as well as to the father. There is no use in the Minister's saying they can have 90 per cent of their supply if for one night a glasshouse owner is left without supply. There is no use in giving him 90 per cent, the following morning, of what he got last year. He must have his supply day after day. He can never be left without oil during the winter period. The Minister should make some reference to the horticultural industry when he is replying to the debate.

The Minister referred to jet fuel for aircraft and the fact that there are current difficulties. In Aer Lingus, Aer Rianta and the Associated companies at Dublin Airport there are approximately 6,500 people employed. In the tourist industry the figure, directly and indirectly, runs into many thousands more than that. The case for the provision of jet fuel to Aer Lingus and to charter operators using Dublin Airport to bring in tourists is self-evident. Without adequate supplies of jet fuel, Aer Lingus cannot operate. They have a complete jet fleet now and they are strangled without adequate supplies. They must have guaranteed supplies. It is no use to plan a flight a week ahead of schedule. They must plan months and months ahead of schedule. The Minister is well aware of the problem facing Aer Lingus. I know he has it under review. I would like him to make a very special case of the situation of Aer Lingus and the staff employed at Dublin Airport and at the other airports. The largest number of staff is at Dublin Airport which is in my own constituency.

The fishing industry is also a problem industry because trawlers use diesel and without supplies they cannot go to sea. If that happens the Dublin market and the rest of the country will have a problem in regard to fish supplies and there will be the problem of unemployment in the industry. The fishermen, because of the expansion of the industry over the last number of years, have invested large sums of money in new boats. For them to keep up the repayments to the financial institutions from which they got the money, they must keep at sea. Without adequate fuel supplies, they cannot do this. The fishing industry is something to which the Minister will have to give particular attention.

I come now to the problem of central heating oil and a case that will bring it home to the mind of the Minister is the situation in Ballymun. In Ballymun there are no fireplaces in the flats or houses. I would ask the Minister to conjure up a picture of somebody living in a 12 or 13 storey apartment with five or six children and no heating. It is typical of the newly developing housing areas in the city and county of Dublin. Many houses are being built without fireplaces. The necessity for supplying heating oil is evident and I am sure the Minister will give it special consideration.

There are other industries in North County Dublin. Wavin Pipes, one of the fastest growing industries in my constituency is based in Balbriggan. They make pipes, the raw material for which is plastic. Without oil supplies, the raw material for this industry is not available and there is consequent unemployment. Apart from oil supplies to keep their motors and electricity going, the necessary raw materials would not be available. No doubt the Minister knows of many similar cases but the ones I have mentioned are deserving of special attention.

Everybody who has spoken this evening has expressed concern about the effect that this crisis will have on our economy. Undoubtedly, the situation is very serious and this fact has been highlighted by the Minister's statement today concerning the 30 per cent reduction. The Minister must do all in his power to clarify as soon as possible the question of whether this reduction is to be put into effect or, if not, to clarify what will be the situation after Christmas. The people should be made aware as soon as possible whether this reduction will take place so that their sense of patriotism may be brought to bear on the situation. Our people have never let this country down in a time of difficulty and they will not do so on this occasion either.

Mr. Gallagher

In common with the other speakers I share the concern of the Minister and the Government in regard to the present serious situation. It is not my intention to speak on this matter for very long but there are a couple of items which I would ask the Minister to examine. The last speaker referred to the fishing industry and this is a matter with which I am particularly concerned. While appreciating the seriousness of the problem regarding the supply of diesel oil I would point out that fishing is different from many other industries in that it is seasonal.

At present, for example, the herring fishing season is in full swing at Dunmore East. This is probably the most important season for the fishermen because it is from herring fishing that they derive the greater part of their income. People who are using diesel for heating purposes have been told that they may obtain 90 per cent of the supply they got during the previous year and this is to apply also to fishermen. However, if a fishermen must leave, say, Killybegs and go to Galway or Dunmore East or to some other place around the cost, he will find that a supply will not be made available to him at a port at which he has not fished previously. Fishermen would be very happy if they could be guaranteed a supply of oil during the herring fishing season and they might be prepared to work on a 50 per cent or lower ration at other times of the year. I do not know whether some such body as An Bord Iascaigh Mhara have apprised the Minister of the present situation but I am bringing it to his attention now in the hope that he will give it very serious consideration.

Last week I raised, by way of Parliamentary Question, the matter of people returning from England to spend their Christmas holidays in Ireland. I had already been in touch with the B & I and had been informed that between now and 5th January there are approximately 3,000 cars booked for the car ferry service. Many of these people return because their families are still living here and for many of them, too, the Christmas period is their annual holiday. I realise that it is not easy for the Minister to guarantee supplies for them but perhaps either in his reply or by way of a public announcement he would appeal to suppliers to endeavour to help any such persons so that they may be facilitated in so far as possible while they are at home. It is hardly necessary for me to mention the benefit that accrues to the economy as a result of the home-coming of our people from England. If you were to ask any business person in the west what were his periods of greatest business you would be told that the August holiday period is first in that sense and that the Christmas period is the next best. Therefore, it is very important to try to facilitate our tourists from the point of view also of the business community.

Perhaps, too, the Minister may tell us whether there is any possibility of extending our own resources. I refer, in particular, to turf. The services of the power stations, such as the one at Bellacorick in north Mayo, might be expanded to some extent. The present situation brings us to the realisation of how foolish we may have been in not paying more attention to our own resources during the past number of years and in allowing ourselves to become so dependent on oil. We, on this side of the House, will endeavour in every way possible to assist the Minister and the Government in dealing with this very serious situation.

Mr. Briscoe

I have promised to speak for not longer than two minutes so that Deputy de Valera may have an opportunity of contributing to the debate in the time left to us. In this short time I shall make my speech by way of putting points to the Minister and the first point that occurs to me is that during the recent apparent panic on the part of many motorists, despite the Minister's warning that there was no need for any such panic, there were some very bad examples of citizenship. There were many instances of motorists who were storing petrol and we heard of cases where tanks overflowed after only about 25p worth of petrol had been put in. Because of the long queues at garages during that panic-buying period there were many doctors who were unable to obtain petrol supplies and I know of one instance in which a doctor left his car, in which there was a gallon of petrol, at home and went by public transport to the hospital where he worked so that he might conserve his small supply for use in the event of an emergency call. Something should be done very quickly to ensure that doctors do not have to queue for petrol.

Recently I saw in an edition of Time magazine—and it seems to be borne out by the Minister's statement today—that anyone who says there is not a difficult time ahead, or that the fuel situation will be all right in the months ahead, has his head in the sand. I believe that is so. I hope I am wrong but I believe the situation will get worse. We must be fully prepared for it.

The Minister for Industry and Commerce reminded me about the Nine EEC countries. It is very important that the EEC countries should stick together. If there is a free-for-all, all hell will break loose and no one will get anywhere fast. It is terribly important that the EEC countries should honour the part of the Treaty of Rome which refers to the pooling of oil resources in time of shortage. The attitude of Britain and France towards Holland has been shameful. If we have any honour at all we should honour that treaty. Our representatives at the meeting of the Heads of State later this month should see to it that we stick together.

While we are dependent on Britain for imports I should like the Minister to tell me do we export crude oil to Britain. If we do, this gives us a weapon. During the second world war —I am open to correction on this but I believe I am right—when we had contracts with Britain for supplies of tea from Mincing Lane we were let down badly. If we have an answering weapon we are all right. When many countries are in difficulties they tend to forget their agreements with others.

It is very important to realise that many people use central heating not only for heating the house but also for heating water. We should bear this in mind. It is also important that the oil companies should keep their customers well informed on the latest situation. If we are to be cut down to 90 per cent or 80 per cent or 75 per cent, we must know when to order. There is unnecessary delay in deliveries. If somebody with a week's supply orders oil and it takes three weeks to arrive, that is no good to him. The oil companies should let their customers know how many days notice they want. Then there will be no panic. Running out of fuel during the winter causes panic. The oil companies must play their part.

I am sure that when the Minister is introducing the coupons, if they are to be introduced, they will not be issued to anybody who does not present a current tax disc or registration book. The last thing we want is a racket. Everybody who gets coupons must be a motorist. We must ensure immediately that doctors have a supply of petrol. I have made my points and I will not delay the House any longer.

An Ceann Comhairle

I might help Deputy de Valera by telling him that I will be calling on the Minister at about 21 minutes to 7 o'clock, that is, in about six or seven minutes.

Major de Valera

I am aware of that. I am grateful to Deputy Briscoe for cutting short what he had to say to let me in. The first point is that there is more to this than a passing phase. This has been emphasised by the Minister and by practically every speaker. I should like to follow up something said by the Minister for Industry and Commerce. This crisis, of its nature, is a manifestation of something broader that has been going on in the world. In a sense it is a question of conservation. It is a combination of all the major things that have been bothering humanity: conservation of resources, conservation of the environment, inflation and prodigality generally by humanity in disposing of the goods available to it.

To summarise what I gathered the Minister for Industry and Commerce was saying the oil crisis stems not only from the political events of recent times but also from economic financial and political sources all working together. There is a genuine limit to the availability of the oil resources of the world which has been worrying people for a long time. Sooner or later humanity has to face restricted supplies of oil eventually available.

Next, there are the complications brought in by inflation which has two effects to which I can refer only briefly now. I should like to have developed the point a little more if time permitted. One is the financial disbalance which results in the amount of money flowing to the oil owning nations to which the Minister referred, and the other is a very natural desire on their part to cope with inflation. Inflation meant a depreciation of values and money as a store of value was not at all able to compete with oil in the ground as a store of value. Lastly there were the political factors.

When you have a combination of things like that it is futile to hope that the problems will pass. Therefore, while agreeing with the Minister, I should like to make a few very general suggestions. The Government should look at this whole problem on a broader basis than merely the basis that energy is running short. Assuredly the Minister for Industry and Commerce is right in pointing to the fundamental nature of energy in industry and in economic activity generally. It is fundamental but the disruption which will follow from a shortage of energy will not be completely catered for by a mere rationing of the energy available. It will entail a fairly large element of reorganisation of the whole community to adjust itself to the new situation.

If I may, from this side of the House, I should like to emphasise what the Minister's colleague said. I hope the Minister does not feel that I am, so to speak, down-grading the importance of his function or that of his Department. I am not. He is the spearhead. He is the commander who has to fire the first shot. He must solve this problem. There is a broader basis here which needs looking at. Before mentioning the broader base, on the Minister's own line I want to make one short point and I hope the Minister will interrupt me if I go over my time.

Up to this economically nothing could compete with oil in the matter of power generation. That situation has now changed. Naturally people talk about nuclear energy but it may be, so to speak, a little bit of escapism to concentrate on that. Mankind will have to fall back on it, but it will take time and it has its problems. Could I suggest to the Minister again that a survey of the power available in the wind be again carried out and re-assessed?

Even the schemes which are so grossly demanding on capital and which are not very likely to be economic, like tidal power stations— we have practically exhausted our hydro-electric and other sources— should these not be examined in the new context, even getting down to such possible small solutions as local wind units for local purposes where practicable? Before rural electrification the wind charger was a common enough thing in certain parts of the country. I understand wind chargers in the past gave some little service. I do not suggest they would solve the Minister's problem but, on the broader aspect, it might be worthwhile examining again the potential of the wind.

Deputy Gallagher mentioned fishing. There are other vitally important things. Time does not permit me to develop to the full the line of thought I should have liked to develop here and I come now to my final point, and something more definite in the context of the broader aspect. It is time the Government started thinking of some co-ordinating ministry for the whole economy. During the war years in the emergency here we had a Ministry of Supply under the late Deputy Seán Lemass, a former Taoiseach, who brought us successfully through that wartime emergency.

An Ceann Comhairle

I regret to have to intervene, but the Deputy's time is up.

Major de Valera

I think the Minister appreciates the line I am on. Could we not have certain specialist committees and an overall co-ordinating body making full use of what is in the Civil Service and also of advice outside the Civil Service? I think we must now come to that.

Minister for Transport and Power (Mr. P. Barry)

I am sorry Deputy de Valera did not come in earlier and did not have a chance to develop to the full his point about the broader implications of this crisis for the whole economy. Apart from what he said, there are other implications. As Deputies have said, it is easy to be wise after the event. How none of us saw, in the last 15 years, the way in which we were putting our heads into the oil lion's mouth is something I cannot understand. Neither can I understand how we continued so blindly increasing our dependence on this mineral as a source of energy. I suppose we were whistling past the graveyard. Oil was the cheapest form of energy we could get and there seemed to be an unlimited supply. It was, of course being pushed hard by the oil companies as a cheap form of energy.

The ESB have been preaching for years, and certainly since I came into office about the necessity of finding an alternative. Their reliance on oil as a source of energy manufacture was causing them intense worry and they were very anxious to get a decision from the Government on the nuclear energy station. I shall come back to this later. That will not be available for eight years at the very minimum and the cost of a nuclear energy station in the light of the present price of oil will go up. Up to a few months ago it was not economic to produce electricity from turf, certainly not as economic as it was to produce it from oil, but that position has now changed.

The world is now trying to move away from oil for electricity and the only place they can go is to nuclear energy. It is the only other known source. It may well be that competition for nuclear energy stations will drive up the cost of them and we are in a very confused and very dangerous situation. The Minister for Industry and Commerce pointed out today the possible dangerous effects not alone for us but for the whole world because the economies of the whole world are interlocked. The price of oil will go up and up. This will affect our balance of payments. If the economies of other countries to which we export are affected they will cease to import the goods we manufacture and our balance of payments will again be affected to a marked degree. We shall have to cut down on our exports. That will change our standard of living. The chain of events will follow right through. The 30 per cent I spoke of this afternoon, the news of which I got this morning, is a serious cutback in the energy supply of this country. We are at the moment probably operating an 8 or 9 per cent growth, and a 10 per cent cut in that, about 17, 18 or 19 per cent—it is impossible to quantify it—and a further increase of 50 per cent on that could bring us up to 30 per cent in January and that, if it comes, will be very serious indeed.

But we must remember that all these things are happening—this is why I would not like to create panic —in the background of a summit conference of European heads of Government this week and of a peace conference between the Arab and Israeli States next week. They may have no bearing. The shortage may come anyway, but this is the background, and it may be that there will be an effort to influence the atmosphere in which these conferences are being held. I have no doubt that the major time of the heads of Government meeting in Europe will be taken up with the oil crisis and the oil situation and the means they should adopt collectively to solve it. We are one of the Nine and we will be equally affected. As the Minister for Industry and Commerce said, Japan, the wonder child of the post-war world economy, is now finding itself subject to ordinary economic diseases which affect all countries placing too much reliance on an imported product at a cheap price, a product which could be cut off at any time by someone in another country. We have all exposed ourselves to this and we will all now have to pay the price.

It may be that there is a lesson in this for all of us. In future years we may look back with horror, but we may well say to ourselves: "Is it not a good thing that we learned this lesson when we were only 70 per cent and not 90 per cent dependent on oil"? The style of life which has evolved in the western world over the last 15 or 20 years was an affluent style with people wanting everything. Perhaps the style is based not so much on real affluence as on the external accoutrements of affluence. Very few of the parents of the Members of this House knew a centrally heated house. Perhaps we all do now. Many of our parents had not even one motor car. Some of us have two. How many of our parents went on holidays using jet aircraft? Every Member of this House has been abroad at some time. These are things we take for granted, but they are not the most important things in life. They make life very comfortable, but they are not the most important things. The important things are a roof over one's head, a job and the means of heating one's self and one's family. It will be the concern of the Government to see that as many people as possible have a roof over their heads, a job and the means of heating themselves and their families.

I would like to thank the Deputies on the other side for the responsible attitude they have taken in this debate. No Minister likes to come in here and preach doom, telling of the dark things around the corner, advising that we must tighten our belts, knuckle down to hard work, with no play: but a member of a Government would not be responsible if he did not explain fully the situation as it is and try to show where it may lead, but he can do that without engendering panic and bringing about an even worse situation. I believe this Government have behaved in a responsible way and I believe Opposition Deputies realise that. Their contributions have been very helpful and I hope that what they said will be heeded by the people generally. They have shown clearly that when it comes to tackling what is a national problem in an international situation all Members are united in the measures that can and must be taken.

I want to refer to some of the points which have been raised by various speakers. Deputy Barrett referred to questions I answered in the Dáil. The question I answered on that occasion related to the total stocks of fuel in the country at a time when the fuel stock was high. They are now down to 60 days. They include CIE and the ESB but do not include Cement and Roadstone or other big private companies. He also said that there were countries in western Europe which were not suffering as much as we are. He probably alluded to France and the provisions of the French oil refineries. This was answered by the Minister for Industry and Commerce. Outside France every other country is in the same position. The Italian Government sought to impose rationing by increasing the price of petrol to 60p or 12/- a gallon. The banning of Sunday driving has not been effective in cutting down motoring because the trip to the supermarket or to the country was merely transferred to either Monday or Saturday. The same amount of motoring was done. In England the speed limit was reduced to 50 miles per hour. This Government are considering this measure and we may bring it in here.

Deputy Barrett also spoke of our securing supplies from the oil companies in Great Britain. As I have said on a number of occasions I wrote to all the oil companies ten days or a fortnight ago asking them to ensure with their parent companies that we would get the same percentage of supplies or that our cut-back would not be greater than the cut-back in the British domestic markets. I have no doubt that that will be so. Deputy Briscoe related the position to the time of the war when tea supplies to this country were cut off. That was the position then. That was the wartime situation. This is different. We were not both in Europe then. I have no doubt that their promises will be honoured. I will keep a careful eye on the situation. If the situation is worse here than in England I will take the matter up with the oil companies and their parent companies in Britain.

Deputy Barrett also referred to the medium-term solutions we have taken to increase storage, oil refineries and diversification of supplies. I agree with him. We will have to take these measures to ensure that there will be an increased amount of oil available. Oil refineries depend on crude oil. The problem at the moment is that the Arab countries have reduced their production of crude oil. No matter how many oil refineries we have, if we have not the crude oil to feed into the refineries, the position would be just as bad. There is a merit there because each oil refinery would carry a certain proportion of space to be used as storage. There are a number of applications before the Minister for Local Government for the building of oil refineries. I expect a decision on them at an early date. The Government are concerned to see that if, in the future, this position arose again, we would have some more padding to protect us from the vagaries of other countries' markets. We will be looking at the erection of oil refineries. This will be more benign now than it was in the past. Their location will be important. Modern oil refineries are not as dirty as some people think. Certainly some of the old ones were extremely dirty. If modern refineries are properly landscaped and the sites chosen carefully they cannot be as environmentally offensive as the old type were.

As regards oil from other sources we will look at this subject in the future. At the moment, 100 per cent of our supplies come through the oil companies. We have to stick with that. Maybe we should diversify in the future. There is no point at the moment in seeking other supplies. For one reason, we do not have the refining capacity. The only refinery in this country is at Whitegate, County Cork. It was working at 100 per cent and it is now cut back to 85 per cent.

Deputy Briscoe asked if we are exporting crude oil. We are exporting fuel oil in small quantities from the Cork refinery. Crude oil comes in giant tankers to the oil terminal and is re-exported to various other refineries in Europe. In that sense we are exporting crude oil but in the real sense we are not. It never finds its way into our oil supply and is merely a transit point for the rest of Europe. The erection of oil refineries would probably be of benefit in the long term but in the short term the erection of a refinery which would take two to three years, could not be of any use to us at the moment.

A few speakers referred to the oil companies diverting supplies from us on to the open market because it would be more lucrative. This came up in the Dáil last week. The companies have not the supplies to divert anywhere. They are very short of supplies. No company like to be cut back on the amount of business they are doing. They would like to be selling the same amount of oil as they were earlier this year. They do not like the position any more than anybody else. There is no evidence that they are using the present situation for an increase in price. In fact, the quantity of petrol they have went down sligthly last week. There is no evidence that they are hoarding oil and waiting for the price to go up so that they can get an increased margin. There is in some countries what is called "participation oil" that is, where some Governments insist on having a stake with the oil companies in the well, in the oil field from which it is being produced. They retain 5, 10 or 15 per cent which they are free to sell anywhere. There is a reasonable quantity of oil in tankers on offer around the world by middlemen. The price is sometimes five, seven or ten times as dear as it was six weeks ago. This is rationing of a severe kind. If the ESB had to pay five times the present price for oil this would have an effect on the consumers inasmuch as they would have to cut down on the use of electricity because they could not afford to pay for it. The ESB are getting some of their supplies from Russia. They are negotiating for a further supply in the New Year but certainly not at five times the price. It will be up in price considerably and this will have an effect on the price of electricity. The housewife should be warned of this. If we buy oil at five times the present price and manufacture electricity from it, then there will be an effect right through the economy because from the smallest house to the largest industry, electricity plays some everyday part. This would be affected by an increase by five times in the price of oil.

Somebody asked about the increased costs to the ESB. It is impossible to say as yet what these will be because the ESB are negotiating for a new oil deal. Again I can say, as I can say about the petrol, the price will be up. That is the only thing you can be quite sure of. The prophecies in regard to the supply situation next year may be wrong. As the Minister for Industry and Commerce and I have said, we hope they are wrong. One thing we will not be wrong about is the price we will pay for it and the effect this will have on our economy. It will increase our costs; it will reduce our competitiveness; it will interfere with our growth. We must bear this in mind. Without a scarcity at all the price will affect our economic position next year and we should bear that in mind.

Deputy Tunney spoke about free transport in the city of Dublin—I am sure he will pardon me for saying so—as if the rest of the country had no problems. Unfortunately I found a fortnight ago when I was talking in the House about panic buying of petrol that it was referred to as if it were confined to the city of Dublin. People seem to forget that there is a whole rural area outside of Dublin which must be catered for also. Free transport might be effective in persuading people to use their cars less but the same effect can be obtained by people voluntarily giving up their cars and using the public transport which is there now. In this regard the taxation of cars was referred to in regard to the issue of petrol coupons. There are advertisements on this morning's and yesterday morning's papers to the effect that the tax book of the current year in respect of the car must be submitted and that coupons will be issued only to those who have taxed their cars. There is no question of persons who have untaxed cars getting a ration of petrol should it become necessary to ration.

Deputy Crowley spoke about nuclear energy. I have already referred to that and to alternative sources of energy. The first station will be in operation about eight years from now and it will then take up what will be the growth in the demand for energy, if things are normal between now and then, and will at that stage represent about 20 per cent of the demand for electricity.

Deputy de Valera suggested that we should examine the possibility of generating electricity from the tides. I am not sure if this is feasible. I am having it examined. The last time it was suggested was during the war. It did not prove economically feasible. The situation was worse then and I presume costs have gone up proportionately since then. We will have the matter examined.

Deputy Gallagher spoke about turf. I am told by Bord na Móna that all the bogs capable of being developed by mechanical methods are now being developed and are in use and that the ESB are using turf to the maximum, representing about 24 per cent of the production of electricity from turf. The ESB are taking that up. Of course, what was uneconomic three months ago from the point of view of Bord na Móna might well be economic now. We will have to look at that to see if it is feasible. Small bogs which it was not economic to develop then might now be economic. It is a possible source that we can look at. The life of our bogs is generally thought to be in the region of 20 to 30 years. Many people advised during the years that this should be left as an emergency fuel supply. Of course, that suggestion was tut-tutted and nobody took it very seriously ten years ago. Now many people are saying that perhaps they were wiser than they were given credit for.

Deputy Meaney asked about the EEC policy. I do not think he was in the House when I referred to it and said that I thought the policy that would come out of this week's meeting of Prime Ministers would occupy most if not all of their time this week. I would not like to preempt their discussion.

I am glad that the Minister for Local Government is now next to me in the House. Deputy Meaney suggested that traffic jams occurred because road works were left unfinished. His point was that traffic jams are being created and energy is being wasted because road works are left unfinished. I do not know to what extent that is so. Deputy Tunney suggested that road works should be undertaken outside the normal working hours, when there are no traffic jams.

Perhaps I should enlarge upon what I said about the supplies of oil and the difficulty in getting firm information about the quantity we will get at any future time. We were satisfied up to today that our shortfall was in the region of 15 per cent, perhaps a little over that, of what we would need now. The companies' forecast for January, as I said earlier, is a shortfall of 30 per cent of what we will need then. We have already catered for an actual cut of 10 per cent in the orders I have signed, plus the growth, as I said, making a shortfall of 18 to 19 per cent. If that goes to 11 per cent it will be serious but the whole situation changes nearly every day and the information one gets from different sources seems to change every day. Sometimes it is not clear when a company talks about a shortfall of 30 per cent whether they are talking about the oil that they get from Arab countries or whether they are netting that with the amount of oil they would get from non-Arab and other sources and whether, in fact, they would get 10 per cent from non-Arab sources; or whether the shortfall is 30 per cent from Arab sources and they are getting 10 per cent from non-Arab sources and these will be balanced out. It is very difficult to get precise information.

Deputy Crowley was looking to me to give some guarantee that I would say that in January such a thing would happen, in February such-and-such a thing would happen and in April something else. This is not possible. It is not possible to forecast that next week the information I will have for January will be the same as I gave today. It is more than probable when a figure comes to me that this is the best information and the one most likely to be true that the oil company can give. This is the 11th December. This is the first figure we get for January. I cannot say what will happen in the spring and early summer. It is not possible to see ahead that far at the moment.

The situation is also confused by the fact that until I have every reason to believe the oil companies in Ireland are giving me the proper information as they have it, they are subsidiaries of companies in England which are subsidiaries of international companies and the oil market is intergrated not alone between Ireland and England, not alone amongst European countries but very largely on a world-wide basis. It is an integrated market. The companies supply their products to any part of that market, depending on where they have tankers and where there is demand. Each of them probably has a bias in favour of one type of oil rather than another and where there are known to be experts in one field they supply to that. It is difficult to get precise information as to what oil we can have available in January and that is only a fortnight away. The information we have is not precise. The further one goes from 1st January the vaguer the field you are getting into except, as I have said a number of times, the knowledge that it will be dear. If people would only remember that, that should be the carrot that will lure them to make greater savings. It will cost more and saving fuel will save them money. That may not be the best or most compelling reason but if even for that reason we can get savings it will be a help.

Acting Chairman (Mr. Tunney)

I am reluctant to interrupt the Minister but I do so to remind him that 7.11 is his concluding time.

Mr. P. Barry

Deputy Meaney said some of his constituents were worried about the cuts that they had got. I think this was because there was some confusion. One of the oil companies sent out a circular that was less than clear as to what the cut was. It did not show that the cut was 45 per cent on a six months basis stated in three months. It merely underlined the point of 45 per cent and this was confusing to many people. Deputy Meaney also referred to the ESB advertisement in this morning's papers advising people how to save energy. I should like to bring one statistic in that advertisement to your attention. There are 66,000 water heaters in this country that are not lagged and are without heat conservers. Each of those uses more than one extra ton of oil because it is not lagged. If only this were rectified we would save 66,000 gallons of oil.

Somebody else mentioned that Government buildings are too highly heated. I have written to all the the Ministers and all the State companies under my control asking them to reduce the heat in this building and other buildings to 63 degrees, the lowest level permitted by the Offices and Premises Act.

Deputy Burke spoke about aviation fuel for Aer Lingus. To bring tourists in here Aer Lingus must take up aviation fuel at some point outside Ireland; we only supply them to fly tourists out, take back tourists who have been here. At present Aer Lingus are trying to ensure that they will get the same level of supply in countries to which they fly as they are getting here. We shall have to give the same type of assurance to air companies flying in here that they will get the same level of supply as Aer Lingus are getting in their countries. This is important. Aer Lingus is a big employer. Deputy Gallagher spoke about people coming back for Christmas and I appreciate this point. Tourism is also under my Department but it would be impossible to pick out tourists coming off a ship and give them a special allowance. Apart from that, it would be unfair if we gave tourists or visitors a special supply which was not guaranteed to our own people living here. If people living here go across to England or France on holidays at Christmas they will not get a special allowance. It could be argued that tourists or visitors from Britain are all the year in England and that their quota under the present restrictions is where the car is taxed. I have a great deal of sympathy for them but we must face the fact that nobody can get all the petrol or oil he wants. This is something we shall have to live with, certainly for some time.

I must impress on the House and the public that we are in a very serious situation in regard to the energy supply and its effects on our economy. If everybody makes the maximum economy, it is possible that we may get through. Unemployment has already occurred among people on night time work in garages. The worse the crunch becomes, the greater the shortage of energy the more livelihoods become endangered. It is in the interests of all of us here to see that we cut out non-essential use of fuel, that we give a lead to the country in not using energy for non-essential purposes. If necessary, if they do not get voluntary co-operation the Government will take power to see that sources of energy are allocated in the most equitable way so that industry and agriculture and concerns that are necessary to keep people in jobs will be the first to get supplies of this very scarce and very dear commodity, energy.

Question put and agreed to.