asked the Minister for Economic Planning and Development why quantitative targets for production in individual sectors of agriculture were not set in the recent White Paper as was done in the Second Programme for Economic Expansion.
Ceisteanna—Questions. Oral Answers. - Agricultural Production Targets.
6.
The policies for the development of agriculture set out in the White Paper Programme for National Development 1978-1981 derive mainly from the options discussed in the Green Paper Development for Full Employment and from the public response to them. The emphasis of the options was on general measures for raising the growth rate of the sector and not on specific commodities. As stated in the White Paper, a wide range of factors can affect the levels of individual commodity outputs and have to be examined before targets for these outputs can be set on a well-informed basis. This work is under way and its results will be taken into account in deciding to what extent in the further development of the planning process the setting of more detailed targets is likely to be helpful in improving agricultural performance.
Is the Minister aware of the factors in agriculture that make it impossible to set targets?
It is necessary to carry out a series of studies on the inter-relationship between the different sectors in agriculture.
I am asking the Minister specifically which factors exist now that prevent him setting targets for individual sectors? Does he intend at any stage to set targets?
I have already replied to the last part of the Deputy's question. In my earlier reply I pointed out that work is being carried out jointly by officials of my Department and the Department of Agriculture and I do not propose to discuss the matter further until I have had the results of that examination.
In the absence of any sectoral targets in agriculture or industry, in the absence of any targets for social expenditure such as existed in the Second and Third Programmes, is not the credibility of the White Paper greatly diminished?
I do not accept any of these things. Indeed, this illustrates some of the differences between us. I have always sought to avoid what I would call the spurious position of decimal place planning. It is not relevant at this juncture to be publishing long detailed series of targets through decimal places for individual sectors of the economy when they are not the immediate priorities or the immediate problems to be overcome if we are to have a successful planning process. The immediate issues lie in the areas which we have already identified: the action within the public sector to redirect the nature of public spending, the very large increase in capital spending this year, especially in key areas of relevance to development, such as roads, water supplies and so forth. In so far as other sectors are concerned, we have placed emphasis—we have discussed it on earlier questions—on the need to achieve a sufficient degree of understanding and support from the trade union movement and other groups, including farmers, on the nature of the development programme to be pursued and the manner in which that programme should be financed. Until these important key issues have been the subject of some reasonable basis of understanding and agreement, it would be not only futile but laughable to be indulging in these fantasy exercises of detailed decimal place targets, whatever entertainment and amusement they might provide for——
Is the Minister seriously suggesting that the exercises of previous Fianna Fáil Governments in their Second and Third Programmes were laughable fantasies and that only he has the full wisdom in his possession which they did not have—not to have any targets at all so that he will not be caught out?
If the Deputy goes back to compare the circumstances in which the detailed targets in the Second Programme were formulated he will find that they were the subject of discussion at a time when there appeared to be a reasonable degree of consensus among the relevant groups concerned as to the direction in which they were to move. For that reason it made sense at the time to have them published. I do not believe there is that sufficient degree of understanding at the moment or that there is the same degree of underlying stability in likely price and output trends. If we go back to those days in the first half of the sixties we will find that we were not then emerging from a severe international recession, we were not coming out of very rapid price and output fluctuations such as we have experienced in recent years. We must tailor our behaviour according to the relevant circumstances and not become locked in some blind automatic formula which may be totally irrelevant.
Does the Minister agree that one of the major objectives of economic planning is to provide certainty in business as to the Government's expectations of what will happen and to create an atmosphere of confidence generally? If so, how can he say that a global target for agriculture alone would be useful in that context——
This is a discussion.
The key words in the Deputy's question were "confidence and certainty". We have set out to provide confidence. Indeed, it is my firm conviction that we have succeeded in restoring the confidence that was so singularly lacking during the period of Coalition Government.
That is why we have industrial disruption.
As regards certainty, nobody can provide certainty. What we can seek to do is to identify the range of uncertainty, to indicate the factors that influence the range of uncertainty, the extent to which varying outcomes are possible over a period of time and then to indicate the nature of the action that can be taken either to reduce the incidence of undesirable development or to reduce the hardship or damage that might be caused if certain undesirable external developments were to occur. That is the way in which one sets about planning in an uncertain environment. One does not set out to pretend that one can do something which quite clearly cannot be done.
The Minister is contradicting his reply to the previous question.
I specifically said that one cannot set out to provide certainty. One can seek to identify the range of uncertainty and to reduce the incidence of that uncertainty.
(Interruptions.)
If the Deputies will not permit answers to be given I will not allow them to ask questions.