asked the Minister for Finance if he will make a statement on the likely trend in unemployment in the coming 12 months and, in particular, the expected peak unemployment figure during that time.
Ceisteanna—Questions. Oral Answers. - Unemployment Trend.
14.
Internationally unemployment is expected to rise this year as a result of slower world economic growth, and it is unlikely that we can avoid being affected by this trend. However it is not possible to forecast with any reliability the extent to which unemployment might rise here. I expect that the level of employment will increase, but the precise extent will depend on other internal and external economic developments, including the state of industrial relations and the rate at which incomes increase here and the stance of economic policy internationally. The Government are acutely aware of the need to do everything possible to maintain and increase employment, as I made clear in my budget speech.
Do I take it from the Minister's reply that in his Department, who are now responsible for some of the functions previously undertaken by the Department of Economic Planning and Development, there is no estimate of the likely trend in employment or unemployment in the current year?
The Deputy will be aware from what I said already, and from what I presume he will be aware of from his own knowledge, that this matter will be influenced by a wide variety of factors including the economic environment and the increased cost of energy, if such arises, and so many other variables that it is not possible at this stage to indicate precisely what the impact will be.
So the Minister and the Department have no estimate, no indication of what the state of the employment market will be in the current year?
As far as the estimate for employment is concerned—the Deputy was talking about unemployment—the indications are that we shall have a significant increase in the employment market this year.
Since the Minister was able to establish that, has he not bothered to establish whether we would have a significant increase in the number unemployed?
As I said, there are factors which affect the realisation of whatever estimate one might make at this stage. I can assure the Deputy that whatever may turn out, it will not be as damaging to the economy as what happened when the Opposition were in government. Then our unemployment rate was the highest in Europe. At the moment the unemployment rate in two EEC countries is——
Why does not the Minister just answer the question?
We must look at realities.
The Minister should do his job and answer the question.
These are some realities which have to be brought to the notice of Deputies.
Answer the question. The Minister was asked if he had an estimate.
(Interruptions.)
I have given an assurance which should be of some significance to the House.
Answer the question. Does the Minister have an estimate?
When the Opposition were in power our unemployment rate was at an all-time high——
The Minister does not have an estimate.
This year we will not be at the top of the European unemployment league. That should be a matter of considerable reassurance.
Would the Minister not agree that it is a deplorable situation when a Minister for Finance comes into this House and says he made no attempt to establish what the unemployment trend will be in the current year, and when he attempts to cover up his gross incompetence by referring to what happened under a previous administration?
I did not say the Department were not monitoring the trends. I said trends are so uncertain at this stage that it is not possible to form a precise basis of their impact on our energy-dependent open economy. If the Deputy does not want to accept that, that is up to him. I can assure him our unemployment figure will not reach the historically high level reached during the previous administration.
(Cavan-Monaghan): What effect will the Minister's budget have on unemployment?
The only employment the Minister seems to be concerned about is the employment of glib clichés.
Why is it that at election time it is always possible to be quite certain about projections in respect of employment and unemployment and when they get into office the Government display the vagueness and incompetence being displayed by the Minister at present?
Question No. 15.