asked the Minister for Finance the present growth rate in the economy.
12.
Ceisteanna—Questions Oral Answers - Economic Growth Rate.
10.
asked the Minister for Finance if he will publish figures comparing the growth in the Irish economy with that of each of the other EEC member states.
I propose to take Questions Nos. 10 and 12 together.
The latest available figures for growth rates refer to 1983. Following are growth estimates for 1983 published by the EEC Commission in the November 1983 edition of their publication European Economy. The figures relate in each case to the latest estimate of GDP volume growth in each of the countries.
|
GDP volume growth 1983 |
|
|
% |
|
|
Ireland |
0.5 |
|
Belgium |
–0.9 |
|
Denmark |
2.2 |
|
Germany |
0.7 |
|
Greece |
–0.2 |
|
France |
–0.3 |
|
Italy |
–0.8 |
|
Luxembourg |
–2.4 |
|
Netherlands |
0.3 |
|
UK |
2.8 |
|
Average for EEC as a whole |
0.5 |
In view of the growth projected this year in the OECD area of the order of over 3 per cent and of 5 per cent in countries such as the United States and Japan, will the Minister indicate what will be the growth rate in our economy this year?
Taking account of the factors outlined by the Deputy and other factors, we expect a growth rate in the region of 2 per cent for 1984.
I do not know what are the other factors referred to by the Minister. I presume he is not referring to the budget, which will not stimulate any growth in the economy this year. Does the Minister have any plans to keep our growth rate reasonably in line with the upturn in the world economy to take account of the opportunities now emerging, particularly in the main consumer countries such as the United States, Japan, Germany and elsewhere?
As I said to the Deputy, taking account of the growth rate in the OECD area to which he has referred and other factors, I expect that in 1984 growth will be in the region of 2 per cent. There are other factors to be taken into account other than the simple effect of growth in other countries. As I pointed out in my Financial Statement, there are a number of elements in budgetary strategy this year that are deliberately designed to assist in that growth.
Is the Minister——
I would respectfully suggest to the Deputies that it seems a little unnecessary to have a protracted Question Time on finance concurrently with a budget debate.
I hope the Chair will appreciate that it is not possible to tease out details like this in the course of the budget debate. In view of the fact that the budget introduced by the Minister was what he himself described as a neutral budget, namely, a budget that would not contribute to growth——
That is not the meaning of a neutral budget.
The budget is not going to do anything to change the level of activity in the economy. Allowing for the cut-back in real terms with regard to the capital programme, how can the Minister anticipate a growth rate of 2 per cent this year due to factors here at home?
I respect the wish of the Chair that we should not have a prolonged budget debate in Question Time, although I am tempted by some of the remarks of Deputy O'Kennedy to get involved in a debate like this. Of course, the effect of the budget measures will be to reinforce growth. The Deputy should be aware that the term "neutral budget" describes the movement in budgetary aggregates post-budget compared with the opening position. In that strict sense the budget this year is a neutral budget. It is a term of art with which the Deputy should be familiar.
It is a term of history——
The other factors to which the Deputy has referred have been discussed. There will be an effect on growth in the Irish economy from growth in other economies, and there will be an eftect on growth in the Irish economy form budgetary and economic strategy here at home. I expect the combination of those factors will give rise to a growth in the region of 2 per cent in 1984.
The main impact will be external.