asked the Taoiseach if, in view of the unemployment figures published on 10 January 1986, he still stands over his statement made during the Adjournment Debate on 18 December last in relation to unemployment that the momentum has slowed dramatically and this promises well for the future; if he believes that the estimated levels given in Building on Reality 1985-87 for unemployment are still achievable; if the Government intend to adjust these figures; and if he will make a statement on the matter.
Ceisteanna—Questions. Oral Answers. - Unemployment Figures.
2.
As was made clear in the Government statement issued with the end December live register figures the sharp rise in unemployment at end year, though disappointing, was anticipated, especially in view of the fact that the figures relate to a week later than normal and are thus not directly comparable with other end year figures in recent years.
The end December figures reflect the traditional rise in unemployment at end year due to AnCO courses ending, to schools being closed for Christmas holidays and to the seasonal run down in activity in many industries especially in building.
The increase in unemployment for the year 1985 as a whole at 14,500 was below the corresponding 1984 outturn of 17,400.
As to the unemployment levels given in the national plan, Building on Reality 1985-87, the plan provided, over the period from April 1984 to April 1987, for a stabilisation in the level of unemployment reflecting an expansion in private sector employment augmented by the special schemes provided for in the plan. The performance of private sector employment has not been as strong as had been hoped for. The Government reviewed progress on the national plan last autumn, in this and other respects, and considered it appropriate to introduce policy adjustments to boost employment creation with a view to bringing the employment position closer into line with the plan expectations.
Is the Taoiseach saying that the dramatic increase in unemployment in the month of December to a figure of 239,000, the highest ever in the history of the State, did not occur? Can he explain what precisely he means in his reply by making excuses for the increase? Is he denying that the increase occurred and, therefore, in his document Building on Reality 1985-1987 where he said that having increased from an estimated 290,000 in April 1984——
Quotations are not in order at Question Time.
The Government's document Building on Reality 1985-1987 is in the question. I am asking the Taoiseach in the question if he believes that the estimated levels given in Building on Reality 1985-1987— we are halfway there now — for unemployment are still achievable. The Taoiseach has not answered that because in the document Building on Reality 1985-1987——
The Chair understood that Deputy Mac Giolla was reading from a document and if he was reading, that is a quotation and it is not in order at Question Time.
Without reading from the document, let me say that in a document called Building on Reality 1985-1987, which I understand gives Government policy with regard to unemployment, the Government stated that they expected by the end of 1987 to have unemployment lower than 200,000. I am asking the Taoiseach if he still feels that that is an achievable target or is it more likely to be over 300,000 or perhaps 400,000 in 1987?
First, the Deputy is quite correct in suggesting that I denied that the suggested figures given are incorrect. On the contrary, I said that figures of the magnitude mentioned for the end of the year, which should be for the beginning of this year, were anticipated and the exceptional increases anticipated were due to the fact that the figures related to a week later. The Deputy will understand that owing to the peculiarities of the 365 day calendar, each year a given day of the week slips back a day until you reach the point where you have to move forward.
(Interruptions.)
This is the year to move forward and the week was moved forward. In any year coming into early January the level of unemployment tends to be exceptionally high.
Let me ask the Minister for the Environment if he will check to see if the Taoiseach has his two shoes on today because he is in that sort of mood again.
(Interruptions.)
I would add that, while a clearer view of underlying employment and unemployment trends will emerge only in the months ahead, the official view for end January is that there will be no increase in the seasonally adjusted total on the live register, an outturn that would contrast with an increase of 4,000 in January 1985 and essentially reflect the fact that the end December figures related this year to the first week in January, as I have already pointed out. If this official view proves correct, the rate of annual increase will now be down to 10,000 for the first time since mid-1980 when Deputy Haughey had the honour of leading the Government of this country, and would be only a quarter of the annual rise in unemployment when Fianna Fáil were rejected by the people in November 1982.
(Interruptions.)
I take it from the Taoiseach's reply, and particularly from his latter remarks, that he believes that the target figure in the document Building on Reality 1985-1987 is unachievable. In the latter portion of my question I asked if the Taoiseach intends now to adjust the Building on Reality 1985-1987 figures, on which the Government's projections, targets, budgets and so on are based, to a more realistic level of unemployment for 1987.
The achievement of the original target would be very difficult in view of the fact that the level of unemployment is now higher at this point than was anticipated when the plan was produced, for the reasons I have given, the slowness of growth or recovery in the private sector. That has been taken account of fully in the Government's estimates of unemployment on which the Estimates of expenditure are based.
In view of the fact that practically all the targets set out in this document Building on Reality 1985-1987 have had to be abandoned and in particular that the existing levels of unemployment bear no relation whatever to the targets set in the document and that the Government clearly are planning for a current budget deficit which will be somewhere in the region of £200 million more than the current budget deficit set in the document, will the Taoiseach now in honesty withdraw this worthless, discredited document and give us some new approach by the Government to economic and financial planning?
It is not the Government's intention to follow the actions of the Government of which the Deputy was a member 20 years ago when they scuttled from the second programme because of a temporary——
Twenty years ago?
——twenty years ago — because of a temporary shortfall in their targets and so took fright that they abandoned the second programme prematurely and produced a phoney third programme. This is not the way this Government tend to operate.
Will the Taoiseach for heaven's sake bear in mind that the young people today are not all that interested in what happened 20 years ago, no matter what version he choses to give of those times? They are interested in the situation today which is that, as everybody knows, unemployment is at least 240,000 and probably nearer 300,000 and that the Government's targets for the current budget deficit are not going to be realised. In these circumstances, as we are dealing with matters today and as he is Taoiseach today and responsible for the economy today, will he tell us what exactly the Government's plan is for the economy both in the budgetary situation and in regard to unemployment?
The Government will continue to adopt the budgetary policies designed to achieve as far as is practicable a halt and reversal in the increase in unemployment and the recovery of growth in our economy.
The Taoiseach stated today that these catastrophic unemployment figures of 240,000 were anticipated. That word was used also in the statement which the Government put out at the time when these appalling figures were disclosed to us. How can the Taoiseach reconcile the use of that word and his statement that these figures were anticipated with the fact that right through last year and even up to the Adjournment Debate that took place before this House went into Christmas recess he kept on telling us that the economy was improving, that the unemployment situation was improving and that — one ridiculous thing he said — we were the healthiest economy in Europe? Leaving that aside, he kept assuring this House that the situation with regard to employment and unemployment was improving as late as the Adjournment Debate here immediately before Christmas. Now he tells us that these catastrophic figures were anticipated.
I told the House and the Deputy that the exceptional increase in these figures was anticipated because owing to the shift in the date the week to which they were related——
The date?
The additional week this year would lead to a higher figure than normal in December because unemployment if it were plotted weekly rather than monthly would be found to rise very rapidly in the post-Christmas period into early January. Last year when the date was earlier the increase was not as great in December but there was a considerable increase in January. I tell the Deputy that the best official estimates are that the big increase in January that took place last year is unlikely this year because it has taken place already in these figures because of the shift in the week. I think the Deputy is capable of understanding that.
I do not understand that.
The Taoiseach is aware that that is not the answer. It is the trend that counts and the trend is wrong.
I am asking for a final supplementary because it is important to get the philosophy behind the Government in regard to unemployment. Does the Taoiseach still believe or agree with the philosophy enunciated by more than one of his Ministers over the past couple of years that it is not the function of a Government to create jobs or employment? Does the Taoiseach or his Government believe that still?
The purpose of a Government is to create the conditions favourable to the growth of employment.
But not jobs?
It is not the function of a Government to create jobs in the sense of creating jobs where there is not work to be done of a productive character. That would create a continuing burden on the economy and lead to a situation where it would be impossible for those productive sectors of the economy, be they public or private, to expand activity and employment successfully.
Would the Taoiseach outline the conditions being created by the Government to create jobs?
The Deputy is aware of the measures taken by the Government last October which are having an effect which once again exceeds expectations, with a massive demand for the home improvements grants, for example, and the Government's further measures will emerge in the budget and subsequently.
(Interruptions.)