Dick Spring
Ceist:21 Mr. Spring asked the Taoiseach if he will outline the current position in relation to discussions on the Programme for Economic and Social Progress.
Ceisteanna—Questions. Oral Answers. - Programme for Economic and Social Progress.
Proinsias De Rossa
Ceist:22 Proinsias De Rossa asked the Taoiseach if he will make a statement on his discussions with the employers, trade union and farming organisations on the Programme for Economic and Social Progress; if the draft agreement will be brought before Dáil Éireann for approval; and if he will make a statement on the matter.
Máirín Quill
Ceist:23 Miss Quill asked the Taoiseach if he will outline the underlying economic growth assumptions underpinning the Programme for Economic and Social Progress; and if he accepts that these will have to be reviewed regularly and may very well have to be revised because of the ongoing serious situation arising from the outbreak of hostilities in the Gulf.
Austin Deasy
Ceist:24 Mr. Deasy asked the Taoiseach the commitment, if any, he gave to the farming organisations during the negotiations on the Programme for Economic and Social Progress to offset the effect of the reduction in price supports proposed by the EC during the GATT negotiations and in the light of the recent proposals for major price reductions in agricultural commodities produced in this country put forward by the EC Commission in recent days.
I propose to take Questions Nos. 21 to 24, inclusive, together. The Programme for Economic and Social Progress negotiated and agreed between the Government and the social partners was laid before the Houses of the Oireachtas and published on Tuesday, 22 January 1991. The Government propose to seek the House's approval for the programme.
The social partners are following their own procedures for approval of the programme by their individual organisations. I would like to take this opportunity to express once again my appreciation and that of the Government to all of the social partners for the constructive manner in which they engaged in the discussions leading to the formulation of this new programme.
The Government are satisfied, on the basis of the experience and of the economic advice of the Department of Finance, that future economic prospects will allow the objectives, especially of low inflation and competitiveness, and the commitments of the programme to be achieved over the next three years and over the period to the end of the century. The programme will contribute substantially to our efforts to achieve the full growth and employment potential of the economy. The Government's commitment to maintaining firm control of our public finances so that there is a steady reduction in the national debt to GNP ratio is specifically confirmed in the programme.
It would be premature to seek to assess, at this stage, the possible effects of the Gulf hostilities on world and domestic economic prospects. Should the need arise, the Central Review Committee of the programme will be in a position to carry out any review necessary.
The Government are committed under the programme to discuss with the farming organisations who are parties to the programme and the EC Commission the compensatory measures to be adopted to offset the effects of the Commission's reorientation proposals and the GATT negotiations. In particular, the Minister for Agriculture and Food will, from the earliest possible date, enter into discussions with the farming organisations who are parties to the programme on the approach to be adopted to the Commission's reorientation proposals and maintain close contact with them as the Community negotiations on these and as the GATT discussions develop. The Government will keep the situation under close review and use all their influence with the Commission and our Community partners to see that Irish vital national interests are protected.
I would certainly welcome the opportunity of a full discussion in this House on the programme. Many of the aspirations within it need to be fleshed out and translated into hard facts, if that is possible. Am I correct in thinking that the assumptions on which the programme is founded are on the basis of a 2 per cent growth in the economy? The prediction now is that we will have a growth rate of less than 1 per cent, if any growth at all, given the recession in the United Kingdom and the downturn in the US economy. The projections in the programme are obviously interlinked. What growth rate are the Taoiseach and the Government assuming will be achieved in the economy in 1991?
Before I call the Taoiseach, I am obliged to deal with Priority Questions shortly, at 3.30 p.m. I wish to facilitate the other Members whose names are tabled to similar questions, Deputy De Rossa, Deputy Maureen Quill and Deputy Austin Deasy. Let us utilise the minute or two to the best advantage.
The programme is not founded on any specific rate of growth in any particular year. The general projection of our experts is that the growth of the economy over the next three years and over the decade will be of sufficient magnitude to enable us to cope with the objectives of the programme. I said in launching the programme that if it transpires that growth falls away and is not of sufficient volume to enable us to achieve all the objectives in the programme, then the programme will have to be reviewed by the Central Review Committee. Subject to that we are satisfied that the overall growth projected by the Irish economy over the coming years will be sufficient to enable the objectives of the programme to be attained. The Minister for Finance will very shortly be giving a full account of the economic prospects for this year.
I will take very brief questions from Deputies Maureen Quill, De Rossa and Deasy.
Will the Taoiseach accept that there are already strong indications of a number of holiday cancellations especially from the North American continent? If that trend were to continue, would he accept that the growth targets in tourism within the programme would not be met? That being so what recommendations will he now be making to Bord Fáilte to switch their marketing pitch and alter their marketing strategy?
I did say that the one area in which the Gulf War appeared to be having an immediate impact was the area of tourism. We would hope, from every point of view, that any such impact would be short lived. The general answer I would have to give to the Deputy is that if there is a falling off in one sector of that industry we will just have to redouble our efforts through Bord Fáilte and otherwise to make up for that shortfall. I have to be honest with the Deputy and the House and say that, as of now, there is a definite worry about the tourist industry targets for this year.
I welcome the Taoiseach's confirmation that a group programme will be debated and approved by the House. I support in principle the concept of such national agreements and I will address them during the debate.
Could the Taoiseach indicate if there are any memoranda of agreement between the Government and other elements of the social partners that are not appended to the published programme? I understand that there may be other memoranda of agreement.
I would like to ask the Taoiseach, in view of what he said to the farming organisations at the conclusion of his discussions, if he would be prepared to invoke our vital national interests where agriculture is concerned if the proposals on GATT and the proposals from the present EC Farm Commissioner are as drastic as they seem to be. If they seem to be particularly damaging to Irish agriculture, will the Taoiseach or the Minister for Agriculture and Food invoke the veto?
It is far too early to be thinking in any such terms. In any event I do not think the veto, as the Deputy calls it, is as relevant today in Community affairs as it was thought to be some years ago.
With regard to Deputy De Rossa's question, there is no hidden agenda, no secret memoranda. There may be subsidiary documents dealing with technical matters but there is nothing of any significance.
Let us now come to deal with questions nominated for priority for which 15 minutes only is provided under the Standing Orders of this House.